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Get In, Get up and Leave - trading style
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Get In, Get up and Leave - trading style

  #21 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
Gainesville, Florida, United S
 
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Broker/Data: IB
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Whether or not your Risk/Reward (chances, odds or whatever) has changed once you've have hit one (or more) of your targets is a debate for the ages --- but let's not go there

One suggestion would be to track the performance of each of your trades (in Excel) along with a multitude of potential targets. Then, after several hundred (or thousand) entries/trades in each potential target line -- sum-up the columns containing each potential target you tracked. Whichever one adds up to the most money..... is obviously the target you should be playing. Keep your entries and stops the same throughout. Only focus on your profitable exits.

The seeming fixation with (attempting to) identify whether it is a range day or trend day is likely to be destructive. No one can know this information until after the day is complete. Besides, it doesn't matter how your strategy fares on THIS day. It's how it fares over hundreds (or thousands) of trades that will ultimately determine your success or failure. So don't get caught up in the deadly trap of attempting to analyze each day and then thinking how you can tailor-fit some strategy that would have worked out great ..... for that day. Show me someone with a strategy that works everyday and I'll show you a liar -- or someone with an advantage that is not available to you.

All in all, you do seem to be on the right track. And hopefully you don't think you need an 80% hit rate to be successful with a 1:1 R/R. You can always add size, if you are profitable. But at least you understand that your expectation is a product of both your win-rate AND you R:R. This puts you ahead of many others out there, believe it or not.

Best of Luck !

Peace,
Paige

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  #22 (permalink)
Elite Member
Vancouver Canada
 
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Short 1989.
Stop 1997
Targets 85, 81 & 77

Edit covered 1/3 at 3 points rather than 4. Hence I added extra point for the 2nd target. I have to get better at SPY & ES conversion soon. IB OCA order is so user unfriendly.


Last edited by Narcissus; October 7th, 2015 at 11:23 AM.
 
  #23 (permalink)
Elite Member
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All targets hit. Grade A trade.

Short 1989 - Targets 85, 81 and 77.

Logic for this trade was same as the last 2 days. We are trading at value high of the last months composite. Gap up made me nervous but the rationale of this trade was gap closure and fading.

This move actually had lot further to go and reached 1967 with acceptance at 1973.

I will not trade more than once during this trial but keeping on eye on optimising entries and exit for future.

For instance, I could consider reentry shorting vWAP 1979 as today has a trend quality rather than range day.

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  #24 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Pleasant surprise

I actually enjoy putting just 1 trade and let the market decide whether I am right or wrong.

Seeing all the chop after my targets are hit and knowing that I can't put another trade is even more enjoyable.

Trading can be stress free. Wow. Didn't realise that until now.

(Ok. May be not stress free, but definitely lot less stressful - For linguistically correct traders)

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  #25 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Paige View Post
Whether or not your Risk/Reward (chances, odds or whatever) has changed once you've have hit one (or more) of your targets is a debate for the ages --- but let's not go there

One suggestion would be to track the performance of each of your trades (in Excel) along with a multitude of potential targets. Then, after several hundred (or thousand) entries/trades in each potential target line -- sum-up the columns containing each potential target you tracked. Whichever one adds up to the most money..... is obviously the target you should be playing. Keep your entries and stops the same throughout. Only focus on your profitable exits.

I agree that R:R is complicated and it involves many factors, not the least of it is one's personality. Personally, I was obsessive with better Win/Loss ratio rather than big winners and currently in the process of working on both my methodolgy & my expectations.

I am following what you suggested with a small twist. I will execute ONE strategy for ONE WEEK and then review during the weekend. The following week, I may adjust my targets/stops/style ONLY based on the result. I will NOT randomly change it. I am aware of the danger of keep fine tuning and never being consistent for a long enough period. I hope I will find a method in my madness of trade execution soon.

Obviously, market context changes from week to week and I need to capture that too. i.e Last week, we were at composite low below 1900 and after NFP we are back at Composite high close to 2000 and ES behaves differently at different locations.



Paige View Post
The seeming fixation with (attempting to) identify whether it is a range day or trend day is likely to be destructive. No one can know this information until after the day is complete. Besides, it doesn't matter how your strategy fares on THIS day. It's how it fares over hundreds (or thousands) of trades that will ultimately determine your success or failure. So don't get caught up in the deadly trap of attempting to analyze each day and then thinking how you can tailor-fit some strategy that would have worked out great ..... for that day. Show me someone with a strategy that works everyday and I'll show you a liar -- or someone with an advantage that is not available to you.

You are right about this fixation of identifying the trend / range day. For instance, I thought today had all the characteristics of a trend day after the initial high Relative volume followed by that vicious 20 points down move. Then, sellers lost interest, buyers stepped in and we were back to HOD. A day like this will make almost all strategies pointless.

However, what I aim to do is to drill down my strategies of entry/exit to just 2 to 3 types. Eventually, it's going to be about managing my final 1/3 stops/targets rather than tailor-fit strategy.

Let's take today as an example. I booked profits on 2/3 of my positions today for a total of 12 points (4+8). My third target was 4 points away as my expectation was a range day.

However, I saw the possibility of a trend day. Hence, I could have moved my stop to Breakeven with NO target or a bigger target. In that case, my potential reward would have been an extra 20 points, if yesterday's low was tested at BE exit. I essentially risk 8 points for 20 points at that point. Oops. I am back to the taboo discussion of R:R. Apologies.

Obviously it's all hindsight but I believe we get foresight by doing lots of hindsight analysis.

It's those sort of lessons I want to learn about market behavior and optimise my approach to trading. Your input and highly constructive comments are very much appreciated.

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Last edited by Narcissus; October 7th, 2015 at 07:04 PM.
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  #26 (permalink)
Elite Member
milpitas, ca, usa
 
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Narcissus View Post

You are right about this fixation of identifying the trend / range day. For instance, I thought today had all the characteristics of a trend day after the initial high Relative volume followed by that vicious 20 points down move. Then, sellers lost interest, buyers stepped in and we were back to HOD. A day like this will make almost all strategies pointless.

Getting fixated on an idea is not the right thing, simply because it is fictional. Key is to stay objective and analyze the market as it evolves. Today there was enough evidence presented by the market regarding the morning selloff and the eventual reversal. As you can see from my journal I traded both the legs.

If you notice NYSE and S&P spreads, both were positive after the selloff with NYSE spotting a positive divergence at the lows. Divergence in NQ was also evident at the lows with NQ comfortably trading above the VPOC levels signaling a long trade.

Trading is all about identifying and analyzing these little nuances in the market with a clear and objective mind. Please note , I mentioned potential trend or range days and how do you identify them, by objectively reading the market as it unfolds and having a good understanding of the market context for your time frame.

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Last edited by rahulgopi; October 7th, 2015 at 07:20 PM.
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  #27 (permalink)
Elite Member
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rahulgopi View Post
Trading is all about identifying and analyzing these little nuances in the market with a clear and objective mind. Please note , I mentioned potential trend or range days and how do you identify them, by objectively reading the market as it unfolds and having a good understanding of the market context for your time frame

You nailed it on the head.

It's about little nuances. It's about being objective.

I am yet to learn the market internals. It's appealing NOW after reading the exchanges between you and @geez as I see significant benefits. So far I stayed away from Inter-market correlations and internals mainly b'cas it messed up my head and affected my Objectivity. I essentially saw what I WANTED to see. Very strong confirmation bias is built into my genes.

Hence I relied on very crude tools like high Relative Volume, HH & HL in volume bars where I can't lie to myself about a trend.

I think I reached a stage where I can begin to add one more layer to my analysis. I thought it would be VIX but decided to learn about Market Internals, instead. Any useful website or resource to have a headstart?

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  #28 (permalink)
Every Day I'm a n00b
San Tan Valley, AZ/USA
 
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FABRICATORX's Avatar
 
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Read as much as you can on $TICK, $TIKI, $TRIN, AD lines, breadth.

Here's a link to the guys at shadowtrader.net (the guys also have a show on TastyTrade) doing a legit webinar on setting up AND actually using market internals.

-Jimmy

Last edited by FABRICATORX; October 7th, 2015 at 08:56 PM.
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  #29 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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FABRICATORX View Post
Read as much as you can on $TICK, $TIKI, $TRIN, AD lines, breadth.

You might want to be careful on who you promote. Very careful when it comes to some.

Mike

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  #30 (permalink)
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Market Internals


Here is another video by Tim Racette of emini-mind

I do not recommend or use any of the services in this website. I do not use internals as mentioned here. Please use it as an introduction to market internals and nothing more.

Improve Your Entries & Exits with Market Internals | EminiMind

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