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Get In, Get up and Leave - trading style
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Get In, Get up and Leave - trading style

  #131 (permalink)
Elite Member
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October 30 update

Early start tomorrow and hence unlikely to trade.

Likely to be lots of action tomorrow as overnight volume is relatively high due to BOJ.

Not a bad day to watch from sidelines.

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  #132 (permalink)
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October 30 update

I was expecting fireworks but the reaction was fairly mute overnight.

US open was uneventful too. Hence decided to put in a trade.

Fading again but for a change, took a LONG around 2079

Though it feels weird to go long intra-day with swing short, I have decided to just trade the chart. That's a big step for me.

I saw sluggish sellers, buyers absorbing below 2080s, low relative volume and it's friday. That's good enough for me to go long as the expectation is a range day.


My first 2 targets hit. Stop moved to breakeven. Not monitoring it as busy at work.

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  #133 (permalink)
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Oops, didn't expect the late selloff. Relative volume was NOT that great. Not sure what that means. Once home, do a post mortem.

Stopped out break even , my final 1/3. Can't complain with 12 points revenue

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  #134 (permalink)
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October 30 reflection

I was expecting a very volatile day but it was rather mute overnight & opening with fairly low relative volume. That gave me confidence to trade today. (I was planning to observe due to expected news driven volatility).

I decided to go with the trend, for a change, and bought the dip. Still fading is my preferred method and I am NOT a breakout trader for sure.

As soon as I put the trade, I got up and left (just as the title says) and checked only a couple of hrs later.

I was pleasantly surprised that my first 2 targets were hit. Then I was fairly confident of my third target being hit. After all, it was friday afternoon with low volume and we are in an uptrend right?

Then came the sudden sell off. Rather than over-analysing the reason, I decided to accept what the market did.
@Big Mike's explanation of month end position readjustment by funds seem more likely.

I have decided to ask less questions now Do we ever know? Is it predictable? Does it even matter? I am reminding myself to be in the PRESENT and READ THE CHART more. May be I should paste that on my iMac screen

My decision to move the stop to Breakeven after my second target of 8 points hit seems to be working. I may consider even tightening further after weekend analysis of my trades so far. I noticed that price usually doesn't move against me very far. When it does, it just blasts through my stop i.e When I am wrong, I am VERY wrong.

I am considering my stop at 6 points, perhaps after a week or 2 analysis. If I keep my targets at 4, 8 and 16, then it's a pretty respectable R close to 2. i.e 18 points risk and 28 points reward. Even a 40 to 50% win ratio will do wonders to my equity curve. hmmm


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  #135 (permalink)
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Murrells Inlet SC
 
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Narcissus View Post
I was expecting fireworks but the reaction was fairly mute overnight.

US open was uneventful too. Hence decided to put in a trade.

Fading again but for a change, took a LONG around 2079

Though it feels weird to go long intra-day with swing short, I have decided to just trade the chart. That's a big step for me.

I saw sluggish sellers, buyers absorbing below 2080s, low relative volume and it's friday. That's good enough for me to go long as the expectation is a range day.


My first 2 targets hit. Stop moved to breakeven. Not monitoring it as busy at work.

Very good analysis! Even if the trade failed you were looking for the correct clues to support your long thesis, you found them and you acted swiftly. Can't ask for anything more than that. I too set runner stop at break even (80)then took a little off but I was monitoring ( in error I actually sold the whole thing and then tried to get back cheaper but same idea)
Well done today.

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  #136 (permalink)
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Props on the long, man!

You are taking what's been said and thinking about it and applying it in real time in real trades, that's winning @Narcissus.

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  #137 (permalink)
Trading for Fun
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Big Mike View Post
This is why I don't use hard stops. And re-entering the same trade after a stop just means your stop shouldn't have been there, the trade is still valid. You should be adding to the position in fact if the market gives you that chance and the trade is still valid, assuming you correctly sized the initial trade knowing that the likelihood you've perfectly timed the market is not great, and allowing for scale ins.

Mike

Some excellent advice although this would be hard to achieve for a 1-2 lot trader, particularly if they are trying to chip out a living, also it takes strong confidence to increase position size during drawdowns. It would probably require downsizing to mini contracts or CFDs to take this approach for most developing traders. But it certainly pays dividends for those who do.

Cheers John

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  #138 (permalink)
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October last week summary

Breakeven week.

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Monday - Very small range and hence none of my targets/stops hit. = 0 points
Tuesday - Short - 2 targets hit and last position exited for 2 points = + 14 points
Wednesday - Short - Stopped out of FOMC volatility = -24 points
Thursday - No trade as range was too small.
Friday - Long - 2 targets hit and 3rd breakeven stopped out = + 12 points.

Total for the week = +2 points. I consider that as breakeven due to commissions, slippage etc.

Lessons

1. Try to stay out of FOMC and NFP day - atleast prior to release
2. Breakeven stop after 2nd target was hit works out well. Atleast psychologically comforting (Winner did NOT become a loser concept- Though I don't like those terms)
3. Decision to NOT trade is sometimes more important than the decision to trade.

Next step is tightening stops and extending targets to improve R but no sufficient data yet.


Last edited by Narcissus; October 31st, 2015 at 03:52 PM.
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  #139 (permalink)
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Execution method in flowchart

This is a basic flowchart of my current execution style. I am considering few changes over a period of time once I get more trading data and more screen time.

My entry criteria are still pretty vague and I am still highly discretionary but working on it everyday - thanks @Big Mike to make us think in more definitive and clearer terms.

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  #140 (permalink)
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Posts: 1,106 since Dec 2014
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November 2 trade


Weekly price action is still bullish but daily price action was bearish on Friday. I am trying to remind me of the Current winner in the market and know who was in control prior to me starting day-trading.

I will probably clip a star on the left upper corner of my monitor for weekly winner and the right corner for daily winner. This habit may reduce my counter-trend trading.

I couldn't shake off my bearish bias today and initiate a short at 2080.

Reasoning - I Expected friday's vPOC/VAH to provide resistance and friday's high to hold. Relative volume is still fairly low suggesting no participation from OTF and hence range day likely. Hence fading with the expectation of revisit to overnight low..

However, I was pre-mature b'cas internals did NOT show weakness at the time of my entry. e.g TICK was still hugging zero but staying +ve with no buying exhaustion and net volume was creeping up.

If I had waited for 2083, when I noticed weakness in internals, my stop would have been at a safer location and above the noise and local stop hunting above last week's high. Sellers hadn't shown up yet and hence I could be stopped out soon. However, range day is still a possibility unless there is a significant pick up in volume.


Last edited by Narcissus; November 2nd, 2015 at 11:41 AM.

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