The past 4 trading days - 14-19th summed up Results:
17 round trips on ES
6 Long - average income 0.08 points - 67% win
11 Short - average income 0.4 points - 81 win
3 trades cost more than a point - average hold period was 75 minutes
2 trades income of 2 points - average hold was 10.5 minutes
The expense trades had oppourtunities to get out at an income level, but I was continuing to swing for fence.
To stay in the game, I need to practice good money management and time management. Know my style. At this point, I am at the last week of my first 2 months in this game and want to be around next year.
Wednesdays trade was interesting in that the volumes were up versus previous days. Was not sure how this would affect market but saw that range was bigger at 11EST.
My goal Wednesday was to get on a trend late. Some support levels that I was following continued to be taken out. I wanted to go long as I thought 2030ish could be tested again.
After some heavy patience I did go L2016.25 and then saw an exit 3 pts higher as I simply wanted a percentage of the days range. I ended up closing the trade a point higher. Need to work on Loss Aversion. At the same time, spending 3+hours watching the screen just to enter a trade had wore me out. I will work on another approach to monitoring market. Will take some time.
Did not trade on Thursday - Non-trading priorities needed attention.
At end of Thursday I did check the market and just realized how biased I was to the downside....also a reminder to remain flexible and follow the trend...easier said than done.
I am calling it an afternoon. Started looking at the screens today from noon to 115pm then from 230-320pm.
At noon hour I was attempting to catch a bottom by going L 2063.25. Patience would have helped me hit the target of the opening level of 2065. After an hour I flattened.
Left to attend to other matters.
Upon my return was happy to see my theory made some sense.
I decided to scalp 3 trades as I saw that on the 5min the resistance at the 2072 level was creating some red bars.
These trades added 3 points to the .25 from noon hour.
My goal was 2 points and this sits well with me. The s/r levels are making more sense each week - the risk aversion is to be worked on. Holding the trades that I am making while watching the 15/30 minute charts must increase. Have have in some targets that I am expecting. Also, dig deeper into analysis to get into a trade where the upside is more than 2 points.
This day felt slightly familiar to Sept 17/15 when we last had the fed.
Was going to trade this day better as the last one was full of too many trades and lots of emotion. Resulting in too much stress.
Trading went well and the idea was basically to be long into and through the minutes being release. I had a target of 3 pts for the day. I managed to get the 3 points prior to 2pm on 2 trades. I traded of the 15 minute chart and was able to hold much longer than on Sept 17 while using the 5 minute chart.
I did use 2 units at one point as my initial unit long was in a bigger range. So I went long for a little bit. Knowing some of the support and res points helped me do this without the gambling feeling of last month.
Exiting all positions prior to the announcement was based on a lack of conviction of my long. After the announcement I did scalp 3 more trades to total 7.5 pts for the day.
This was my best daily income in over one month. I did not like that I had to scalp for some of it as I am really working toward getting some 4+pt income trades. Working past this resistance of fear of loss.
Today I went long 4 times.
With 3 income trades of 6.5 pts and 1 expense trade at 2.75 netting 3.75 pts. My goal was 3 points today.
Something is missing. I would like to be able to tell when a push is a good push up or down in price. It seems that I am concerned about break-outs to the down side when I am long and that I am worried about reversals also when long.
I am not using any tick data and I watch volume on the 15 minute chart. Will investigate further.
I would like to get out of the longs when the hit resistance and do not break through. Is this thinking small. Not if it is a range type day. Today was a tight range of 11 pnts.
At the end of the day I almost packed it in but on the forum there was some views that we would go higher, I went long from 330pm - 349pm for 1.5pts. That was great as it helped me reach my goal. The strong push faded at 86.5 and as it dropped I decided to take this little gift before it vanished. Sold at 84.25.
The greed comes into play whenever my income (non-realized) is on the screen and at level above my goal...it fades too often. But beginning to read that you will never make it if you do not have some big winners.
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Friday was had some interesting results prior to noon a 4 short trades that where small scalps. The trade holds ranged from a minute to an hour and the income range was 0.25 to 0.75 pts. Hardly stellar.
It is clear I need more work and discipline on S/R.
In the noon hour I went long twice, and it should have only been once. First trade was +2.25pts. Sold at 2085.75. Then noticed some bouncing hire and bought it at the same level again. This was great had I sold it when it jumped for about 10-20 minutes, then I could not see the light as it dropped.
Was looking for something to flash on the screen saying this is why this is happening. I had half a dozen alarms go off telling me to sell as resistance was being hit and breaking down. But I kept holding onto the thought of where the market was at 115pm something like 2087.
Now we have the trade on over the weekend that was never the plan.
Was able to get back into the trade from 3pm to scalp 2 trades for 1.75 pts. in the 2097.75-2099.5 range.
My objective was to get a couple of winners for the momentum for the rest of the week.
Increasing size from 1 to 2 contracts during a few of my last trades has added a different risk/reward. It has opened my eyes to the scaling out of positions that can take place. This is where I feel the real learning will take place and learning about r/s will increase. Additionally, the need to allow for profit growth.
Back when I first started day trading futures, I would jump out of trades at the first sign of profit or loss. I believe this was due to the fact I had so many losers as I was using tight stops that i shit my pants when I was right and felt I had to take profits " just in case". I see you traveling that dangerous path so I'll say this- the market will move and pay you when you are right but you must be in the trade to reap the rewards. You are not reducing risk by jumping out at the first sign of trouble, you are increasing it and hurting your bottom line- I think most of us go through this. I feel you are at the point where establishing some reasonable targets may be beneficial- once you start seeing larger trades work you will be more inclined to "stick it out". Consider using the average daily range as it puts targets into a reasonable perspective- look to take 25% and 50% for income targets and leave your third contract to run to seemingly rediculous levels until you believe the market will move and then you can expand on that. BTW- I am assuming you are trading a reasonably capitalized account since you are trading multiple contracts and holding overnight.
Last edited by Inletcap; November 3rd, 2015 at 07:42 PM.
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@Inletcap, Good advice and it is not the first time you have provided it to me.
I would say that the point of being sick of taking small trades has been reached. On Tuesday your posts on ADR was like a pan on the head. I managed to use the targets and had a decent day with a 5 pt gain on one of the trades. As I was shooting for 2009 but find that I do back out of trades when hearing others are taking profits.
I do feel that trading more contracts will make sell decisions easier. Trading one lots seems like there is no wiggle room for entry or exit. It creates a bit of stress in the mind as greed kicks in.
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