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Back in business

  #21 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

My setup and my system

As I’ve previously said there is no “secret” behind it’s just a simple and naive trend following system.

My main screen is a range bar chart. On the other screen I have a renko (used mainly to spot easily support and resistance even if I don’t trade them directly), and regular bar chart with different time frames: usually a 2 min and a 15 min.

I have usually 2 type of moving average on those charts. A VMA that I really appreciate for its capacity to be flat during non-trending period (but I don’t use it to avoid “choppy” market, for that a longer time frame chart of real bar is much more useful), and a MAMA & FAMA who give me a good direction for the trend (I usually don’t trade MA crossing even if I look at them).



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My entry rule is very simple 3 consecutive trending range bars, this signal must be confirmed by : uptrend = price above VMA, VMA with a up slope, MAMA & FAMA with an up slope. The more away MAMA & FAMA are from each other and the more above the VMA the bar is the stronger the trend is. But during my first entry I do not take this too seriously (otherwise I would only enter at the end of the trend…) (reverse all of that for a short entry).

My stops are entered in the market (not just in my mind). They are my indicators to tell me if I’m right or wrong (that is reason why they are set at a small level of loss).

The first entry is always the most delicate operation of the day and most of the time I’m wrong so paradoxically I do not pay to much attention to all my rules for the first entry. That may seems weird but what I’ve often saw is people waiting for the perfect entry or the famous pull back that never come in a trend that they have missed. They sat in front of their screens all the day, and after several hours they enter in the market and of course at the worst point because they are frustrated. I prefer to lose a small amount than to miss the train.

Once I’m in, the real work begin. What I want to avoid is cutting a profit by leaving to early. At this point I pay a lot of attention to all the previous rules (slope of the VMA and MAMA, price above or below the VMA, look at the longer time frame chart etc..). I know that I will be wrong at least 50% of the time and that I can’t do anything to prevent that (except shutting down my computer) so when I’m right and want to take a much as possible from the market. My first entry rule is very relaxed and lenient but the subsequent ones are very rigid.
  • I never used trailing stops because I consider them as the best way to cut our profit. If you need a trailing stop to be profitable it is because you are not in a “real” trend.
  • I do not have stress about choppy markets: I usually don’t lose too much in them because I always have a look at the longer time frame graph. There is no indicators to avoid choppy market the only way is to increase your time horizon.
  • I really like the VMA. This moving average has this nice property to be flat during none trending period (I must say short non trending period). It really helps me to avoid cutting or reversing my positions during simple pullbacks or consolidations.
  • I don’t play MA crossing (even if the MAMA and FAMA are not too bad) but I just use them as confirmations.
  • I always enter my stop in the market (for CL it is a 12 ticks one) and I never, NEVER, remove or move it.
  • I just use market orders.

I’ve tried to increase the complexity of this very simple system and it did not work. With more rules, more indicators the results have always been worst for me. In fact I could just trade it with 2 graphs and no indicators.

Examples of entry rules and how to stay in the trend :

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Choppy ? Time frame is your friend :

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What I strongly believe is that it is: the most important “indicator” in your trading system is your psychology and your system must reflect it. People who lose money lose it not because of their setups but because of their mind. Also some people have a mind that is not fit for trading. In that case they just should play poker, domino or tennis but not markets. It is as simple as that. You can improve your system but you can’t change who you are.



My 2 cents about “psychology”: thousands of times I’ve read or heard analogy between trading and for example poker. In my point view nothing is more false than this analogy. My analogy is trading is like boxing. To enter in the ring you must be crazy or hungry (you won’t fight well if you already think that you have all you need in your life, but in the other hand if you are just crazy there is nothing we can do for you…). You must enter this game only if you really feel the desire to win knowing that your opponents are going to do their best to hurt you (it is a zero sum game what I win, you lose it). But hunger is not enough, even if you are starving, even if you are the strongest guy in the world you will need technics, you will need to learn how to fight and real technics are only learn in the real arena (stop intellectual masturbation, stop paper trading, use it only to be familiar with your trading platform). This is the reason why so many people retire early from this job because when you win and the more you win you will certainly lose your hunger. The key is to be fool (just a little) and hungry (a lot). I trade to win, nothing more nothing less.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #22 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

Money for nothin' and chicks for free

October 6 2015

Did not have the chicks for free... lol but clearly the money for nothing : most boring day but rewarding one.

Enter long at 46.14 at 7:46 Am
Close the position at 49.00 at 16:34 PM (no sell signal just bored)...

Not a single signal during the whole day just buy buy and buy

Maybe should have stay long.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #23 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

Changes


I've made some important changes in my trading "strategy" during the last couple of weeks.

Maybe it is just plain luck and "special circumstances" but instead of 50 rounds per day I've greatly reduce that to just one some days.

I think we will have nice trends in CL in the following year. I personally believe that the collapse of oil price has been mainly driven by geopolitical reasons (cutting Russia and Iran main stream of revenues). Now that Iran starts to show compliance in terms of nuclear control and now that Russia start to be a major ally for fighting the ISIS I believe that we can see oil at much higher levels.

I've kept almost the same setup but I have introduced an important filter and also a lot of simplification :

1) entry short : 3 consecutive down range bar under the VMA(4,18) (range set at 5 ticks on CL)
2) exit short = entry long
3) entry long : 3 consecutive up range bar above the VMA(4,18) (range st at 5 ticks on CL)

bar must be at least 2 ticks above or below the VMA to start the counting.

no trailing stop, no profit target (just 1 stop loss a 12 ticks).

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R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #24 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

Optimus

I'm not affiliated with Optimus and I do not have an account with them yet but I must say that I've been really impress by their services.

I've asked my wife this morning to make research and to see if it is possible to open an account with another broker (I have nothing special against IB Canada but they seem to don't care. I've contacted them to know how I can wire money since electronic transfer are limited to 100K$ per 7 business days and they just tell me to go the web site to find the information...). She has just sent 1 email to Optimus and less than 1 hour latter she has received an answer and during the evening they even called us to make a follow up (I've missed the call unfortunately).

I will fill the form tomorrow. Great job.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #25 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

not all days are created equals

lots of trades today (at least compared to the other days) for a good result: 158 ticks per contract.


Started to work at 5 AM , finished early at 2:30 PM.

18 trades, 5 stops hit. Average loss 12 ticks, Average win 31 ticks.

I've started to test CQG IC and I find it far superior to NT in every aspects. NT is a very good platform and I can't say that CQG completely blast NT for this or that but it is a lot of small details here and here that make the difference between them. It is the same feeling when you start working with Bloomberg after having worked with Thomson.

(and also even it is completely stupid I really dont like the name of NT : NINJA TRADER... for me it is a name for a children video game and also the ninja word did not refer to something very positive at least for people who have some Japanese culture. For the small story the word ninja is only used in the West, and many Japanese synonyms for ninja are ruffian or macaque...and mostly refer to people from the lowest class of the society.It is of course totally subjective but would you like to drive a pink Porsche with green dots ? Maybe yes but not me lol).

Since I've started trading with IB I have only used 2 contracts even if I can afford a much higher size. Doing more than 100 ticks per contract per day in average is certainly a more than average result. Doing it with 10 or 50 contracts will be exceptional (at least for my standards) but I like to play during euro time and the liquidity is not always here. It is a dilemma : making 2 to 5k per day is great, making 20k is more than tempting but I have the feeling that it won't work. That is one of my great weakness : being to greedy and using to much leverage. For the moment I took the commitment to keep my profits and to stay with my poor 2 contracts.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #26 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

My first day with my new trading platform

Today with my first day with CQG QTrader and I lose a little money...

The platform has nothing to do with my loses but my lack of training has. Sunday I was setting and programming my very simple indicator and soon after the market open I had an interesting sell signal. I did not take it because I did not want to spend the whole night in front of the screen (after having spend the day in front of the screen) and because I was not conformable placing an order with a trailing (I was not prepared and was not sure if my orders will work has expected) So I did nothing despite the strong sell signal. (see graph below).

I wake up this morning realizing that I have lost a very nice opportunity of more 120 ticks because I did not know how to place a trailing stop....
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After that miss it was the most boring trading day I've seen this last month on CL. Only 2 signals validated during the day and all of them have been stopped a few minutes after. During all the day the market was in a range between 46.30 and 46.30 with a few attempt to exit that range. All was done during the night and I was not here...
Now I know how to place orders


Of course to finish in beauty the last valid signal seems to be a BUY a few minutes before market close...
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I will go to the restaurant now and will not repeat the mistake of sunday night.

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R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.
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  #27 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

Simplicity

About my trading system:

I have simplified it a lot during the last month of trading.

First I was fond of range bars thinking that they represent more the price action than time bars. But in my real trading they tend to give me more nuisances that support and often gave me false signal. So I’m back to time bars (2 min for CL).
I have only 1 indicator VMA based on the CMO with the following parameters : 4 for the VMA length and 18 for the CMO length.

During the night since movement is slow I only look at the time bars in 2 mins. During the day like a no trend day as today I look for a confirmation of the signal of the 2 min bar on the range 5 ticks bars.

The signal is quite simple : 3 up bars above the VMA = buy (up bars = open > close and higher high with high low for the 3 of them). 3 bars below the VMA = sell. In both case stop at 10 ticks and no trailing (unless I have to sleep or to leave the screen).

It looks maybe too simple but it works (at least until now…) ☺.

I like CQG trade route, very fast not a single tick of slippage today. I like the platform simple robust efficient

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #28 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

I was feed up to have such a bad day so tonight a play CL and CAD. Small gain in CL and large one in CAD
But i must definitely re read the manual I've made mistakes again with the manipulation of bracket orders that cost me a part of my profit.

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #29 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received

WTF

I moved from Ninja to QTrader 2 days ago. It should have made no differences ? In fact for the last 2 days it has been a disaster. In 2 day I've made only 5 trades and 4 have been losers !

The platform has nothing to do with that. It is my fault.

I've started to develop the worst behavior a trader could have. I start to have doubt about my system, it took me 2 minute to push a button instead of 1 second, I sell on the low and buy on the high. At the end of the day I looked at my screen had was afraid : I had 15 indicators on the screen lol.

I closed the screen, I took a walk, (and I bought a bottle...). I know that if I continue like that in one week I wont be able to trade.

I cant say that I was very used to Ninja but I took almost 1 month doing paper trade so I was confident in what I was doing. With QTrader I took 1 day and I start live: big mistake. Each time a take a trade it is like I have doubt that the platform will sell instead of buy and vis versa. I fear my tool. On top of that CL has not been easy to trade on the last 2 days (at least for my system) but when I look back I see lots of missed opportunities so the problem is me (as usual in trading). So tomorrow and for the rest of the week paper trade only with this platform.

You see the little rectangle with the down arrow (the down arrow is my system with a sell signal that of course I did not take. You see all the crap on the screen it is pure BS that I have added today
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(terrible for a guy who spoke not long ago of simplicity....

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
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  #30 (permalink)
 R.I.P. 1969-2016 
montreal quebec/canada
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: CQG/NT7
Broker/Data: IB/AMP/CQG
Favorite Futures: CL
 
Okina's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,149 since Sep 2015
Thanks: 758 given, 5,422 received


I want to show you something because I also want me to remember it:

I have removed all the crap of my screen and put my screen in its original state. I have put red rectangle around the signal.

You see the difference ? large winner today instead of crappy trade. I hope you will remind this lesson and last I will

Cheers,

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I must say something about my system: due to my lack of programming skills the system show different entries but my rule is if you miss the first stay away. It could be frustrating but I know by experience that the first is always the good one. After you may have 15 others but they wont be as good and if you catch the train after it start you will certainly catch it at the final station (murphy rule)

R.I.P. Olivier Terrier (aka "Okina"), 1969-2016.
Please visit this thread for more information.

Last edited by Okina; October 20th, 2015 at 06:11 PM.
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