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Riding the (Elliott) Waves - My journey
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Riding the (Elliott) Waves - My journey

  #11 (permalink)
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Getting my sh.. together

On demo accounts I managed to make great results, so I am sure that 90% of my problem comes from my bad habits: the hurry to grow my account makes me jump in to early and take losses before the trend actually forms. I'm picking tops and bottoms. Not good.

I still think that the recent price actions are corrective in the US and EU indices but anyway, I wont be trying to anticipate trend reversals and jump on every selling. I stay with the trend following approach and keep it simple but will have to update my entry technique to make it more idiot-proof. Inserting 1-2 steps that confirm the trend change should be enough for now.
So here comes what I will be looking at:

As a trend follower Im interested mainly in impulsive moves. I will count waves only on the daily charts and consider the market set-up for an entry once I can count a correction as complete.
I will trade other trends too but with smaller positions and wont add to them (no pyramids), only in impulsive trends.

On my secondary time frame (H1 or H2) I will be looking for tops/bottoms to form and for trend change. UO and RSI will be my tools as before but I made a change on how I use RSI.

UO shows (as I would define it) the balance between selling and buying in the way that it measures the position of the closing price compared to the true range as a percentage. It does this so by taking a weighted average of 3 different time frames. This tool is great in showing trend lines that represent the balance of bull-bears in the market. The breach of these trend lines is most of the time significant. It also does a great job in identifying divergences.

Until now I was looking at RSI as a confirmation tool for UO. However, I read a book by Constance Brown that had an interesting approach in it. This technique comes from Andrew Cardwell improved RSI analysis and discovered some techniques not even Welles Wilder mentioned in his writing. Its about bull and bear ranges and moving averages on RSI. I did not take the online course (4500 USD...) so I will incorporate only the techniques I know from other books/articles. I will put a 9 period SMA and a 45 period EMA on RSI and check for the following: a trend change is about to happen once the fast crosses the slow average and the trend is confirmed once RSI crosses the 50 line. I will use this in conjunction with UOs basic entry technique as not all trend changes are accompanied by divergences. The Cardwell-method should give an objective signal to jump in so I can keep my opinion out of trading.

On the third time frame (M15-M30) I will be checking for confirmation of the secondary time frame and use it to enter/exit.
I will have to switch to a futures broker as well so I can get true volume data, I really miss it now...

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  #12 (permalink)
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DAX & DOW

DAX broke down with the US indexes on Wednesday and gave me entry signals for the downside so I wend down a time frame to look for an entry.
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Prices stalled at the trend line connecting the lows of this multi week correction, so I decided not to keep the position and to take profits. I'll re-enter if prices continue to the downside next week.

Same with DOW: here the bounce was stronger and might even continue next week. I see a chance here for prices to rally back to the 16700 again. In this case the pattern will be a triangle, signaling a final move to the downside. Lets see what next week brings.
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Gold looks interesting as well, but its too early to be excited...

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  #13 (permalink)
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balage you are doing great job. I also use EW in my trading but have not used UO. Will explore it. Regarding RSI, do you use 9sma and 45 ema of RSI?
Which book of Constance Brown do you refer to?


Last edited by DELTA007; September 13th, 2015 at 07:20 AM.
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  #14 (permalink)
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ok. it is Technical Analysis for Professional Traders.

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  #15 (permalink)
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DELTA007 View Post
balage you are doing great job. I also use EW in my trading but have not used UO. Will explore it. Regarding RSI, do you use 9sma and 45 ema of RSI?
Which book of Constance Brown do you refer to?

Thanks DELTA007 !

The book is : "Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional" but originally the technique comes from Andrew Cardwell.
On RSI I use a 9 SMA and 45 EMA... MA crosses on RSI give nice signals for momentum breakouts, but are a bit slower than UO signals. Anyway, they are nice for timing.
Source for UO if you want to explore it further: https://www.ireallytrade.com/UltimateOscillator.html
I'm a big fan of it!

Cheers!
B.

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  #16 (permalink)
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DAX M15

Stopped out. I think I will leave this instrument for now, I just burn myself constantly.

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  #17 (permalink)
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The "favorite instrument" -trap

My broker just switched to another platform, so I downloaded a summary report to double check my stats. I was shocked...
I always regarded DAX as a favorite instrument, despite that I knew that in total I was negative in it. That proved to be correct, but the scale amazed me...
After deleting all my DAX trades from my diary, my equity jumped ~150%... How stupid is this?? Basically I kept loosing the money on DAX that I made on my other instruments.
Anyway, instead of investigating the reasons, I'll simply stop trading this instrument. My only index for now will be SP500. Also, I'll update my excel sheet so It calculates a distribution between wins and losses between all the traded instruments.

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  #18 (permalink)
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Oil, EUR/USD and Gold

Oil broke out from its corrective triangle, which I am labeling as "b" of a larger "a"-wave. UO gave me an entry signal yesterday.

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Gold has probably completed a larger correction and is in the early stages of a large C-wave, this should mean a long impulsive advance. Lets see the coming weeks...

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EUR seems to be in a trend change as well, but today's bounce brought prices back from my entry point. My SL is far away and this might be a small degree second wave starting. Until now, the pattern appears to be a small leading diagonal.

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Oil, EUR/USD and Gold #1

EUR is still in an uptrend, I was stopped out. Will be watching how prices behave.

Oil is in a correction, and I was stopped out break-even after I added another contract.
I re-entered just now.

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Gold looks nice so far, I will add to the position at each larger setback and trail my stop up from now on.

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SP500 & Oil


Both stopped out. Don't know what I'm doing wrong.

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