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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)
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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)

  #61 (permalink)
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Tuesday's trade was range bound and choppy. There was plenty of room and opportunity for profit on both sides of the market. Today's volume profile is weighted heavily towards the upper end of the range. The POC is 2147, and the profile slowly tapers off down into today's lows. In my mind, this means one thing.

The market is accepting these higher prices.


If institutions were truly bearish, we would see evidence of large short positions being established. All that we have for now is a market which chops and pushes higher. Tuesday gave us an eleven point range. Assuming another orderly bullish day tomorrow, we could easily be trading in the 2160s by the close. Furthermore we remain in an upward channel, and today's afternoon selloff reestablished prices in the middle of the channel.

I'm buying the market overnight with the idea that we either open in the 2150 zone or trade it sometime tomorrow. I will add on if the lower trendline is reached, and I will consider trade below the weekly VWAP at 2137 as suggestion that the upward trend is no longer valid.

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  #62 (permalink)
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Wednesday:

Trade 1: I stopped out my overnight long from 45.75 for a 2.25 point loss.
- It seems that every time I've taken an afterhours trade recently that it's been a loser. I am not going to take any more afterhours trades for twenty trading days.

Trade 2: I bought ES on the way down from 47.50 to 41.50. I exited the trade at 41.75 for a 3.5 point loss on average.
- I was fading the downward move before it really started down. Next time, I need to step away and let the market move to where I least expect it to go before stepping in front of it.
- Because I don't scale into large size (10+ contracts) I need to be more selective with my entries as I hold a position size of 3 lots at most.

Trade 3: I bought ES at 43, 42, and 43.50 on the bounce back up. I scaled one at 46 for a three point gain and I closed the others overnight for just a tick in profit.
- My read of the overnight session has been incorrect for the last couple of days. I'll work actively to exit my whole trade by market close next time.
- It seems that three points is damn close to my MFE for this week's trade. I'm sure that's partially a product of my imperfect execution; however, I need to recognize that the window of profitability is dropping and I need to seize what I have in front of me.
- My execution felt excellent on this trade. My limit orders were filled and I took at most a point of heat. I was feeling good about the trade.
- Perhaps next time the execution is working like a charm I'll consider increasing size by one contract...

Today's total: -7.00 ES points. Most of this loss came because I bought on the way down and increased my size too large too soon. I think what I'll do in the future is open a small position near the market when I see things moving where I want, and then fully ante up when prices reach nearly where I'd consider myself wrong...

Week total: -$1075. Current ES count is -15.50 points. A significant portion of my losses are coming from overnight trades/holds. I'm stopping that BS right now.

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The initial entry this morning was on a "breakout" feeling. This was quickly proven wrong as my 48 purchase hardly saw a tick in MFE. I need to recognize the reduced range recently and play mean reversion/range trader instead of breakouts.

My gut was telling me that the lows were in when we traded the lows and almost immediately rallied two points very quickly. I should trust my gut next time on things like this, especially considering the confluence with weekly ETH vwap.

Trade around a POC is choppy! I kept expecting a breakout to today's highs near the end of the session and the move never came. Once again, I need to recognize this and scale the sonuvabitch when given the opportunity instead of shooting for the moon.

The volume ladder seems to be working well. I'd be interested to see the difference between the data I have and a true Bid x Ask feed.

Overall, overnight trading and my executions are costing me too much. Improving my executions will come with time but I can cut out the overnight gambles right now.

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  #63 (permalink)
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1: The rollover and die case (Personally, I think this is BS. As more shorts force their hand upon the market without seeing significant rotation downwards, they simply add to the fire that will grind higher.The ES needs to lose today's lows for me to even start to consider selling it. ).

If the ES turns the 2146 POC into overhead resistance instead of a chop zone, I'll look for a test of 2142.50 that has such a large sell delta and then a move to today's lows. If we lose today's lows, I'll look for a scaling point/bounce at the 2137/2138 LVN. As soon as we enter Monday's range I will immediately look for signs of exhaustion. You bet your ass that shorts from 46 and 50 will thank their lucky stars that they've got a ten to fifteen handle trade. Countertrend retail folks in this market are going to be jittery and quick to scale whatever they've got.


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2: The grind-me-higher case (I believe this to be more likely because of the way that the POC at 2146 has held and held and held).

The market is marginally lower afterhours. I think we'd see an auction lower to lure in even more shorts down to 42.50 before recovering 46 in quick fashion and pushing to the 49.25 swing high from a couple of days ago. Continued chop seems likely to flesh out prices before pushing to new ATH. Today's range was 11 handles. 11 more handles from a possible 42.50 low sees prices up to 53--just above the highs made overnight.

FYI the 14 day ADR of 21.25 handles is inflated by post-Brexit trade. I'm using a 10-12 handle expected range because of the quiet recent trade.

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  #64 (permalink)
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lax99 View Post
Week total: -$1075. Current ES count is -15.50 points. A significant portion of my losses are coming from overnight trades/holds. I'm stopping that BS right now.

I need to recognize the reduced range recently and play mean reversion/range trader instead of breakouts.

My gut was telling me that the lows were in when we traded the lows and almost immediately rallied two points very quickly. I should trust my gut next time on things like this, especially considering the confluence with weekly ETH vwap.

Trade around a POC is choppy! I kept expecting a breakout to today's highs near the end of the session and the move never came. Once again, I need to recognize this and scale the sonuvabitch when given the opportunity instead of shooting for the moon.

Overall, overnight trading and my executions are costing me too much. Improving my executions will come with time but I can cut out the overnight gambles right now.

Hey @lax99,

I was just reading your journal and wanted to say a few things.

1.) That is awesome that you recognized overnight trades don't work well for you! It shows that you can recognize what works and what doesn't.

2.) Now that you know what works (volume ladder) and what doesn't work (overnight trading), find out why it doesn't. This more pertains to the "doesn't work" part, but can also be applied to what does. If you find why ON trading doesn't work for you, that will be another piece of "evidence" in the "crime scene" of the -$1000 week. This piece of evidence can possibly pertain to your intraday trading as well! Some people don't like ON trading due to being away from computer at times. Well, now you know to flatten when you go get something to eat or to the restroom. Does this make sense?

Lastly, take everything you know and think on it and derive pieces of "evidence" to help "solve the crime".


I hope I helped

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  #65 (permalink)
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rocksolid68 View Post
2.) Now that you know what works (volume ladder) and what doesn't work (overnight trading), find out why it doesn't. This more pertains to the "doesn't work" part, but can also be applied to what does. If you find why ON trading doesn't work for you, that will be another piece of "evidence" in the "crime scene" of the -$1000 week. This piece of evidence can possibly pertain to your intraday trading as well! Some people don't like ON trading due to being away from computer at times. Well, now you know to flatten when you go get something to eat or to the restroom. Does this make sense?

Lastly, take everything you know and think on it and derive pieces of "evidence" to help "solve the crime".

@rocksolid68 Thank you for taking the time to share your expertise! Trust me, it is well received. I think that part of my ON issue is that I can't "see" whose side I'm on. That is, I don't know whether the ON drifts are driven by OTF participation because the volume is low and I'm not watching the market.

I think the same could be said for when I'm at lunch or running errands during the trading day. I usually have a position on at this point with some sort of scale target; however, I'm not immediately in tune with the market, the TICKs, and the order flow to be able to properly manage my trade. I bet this is part of what starts me micromanaging trades. I'm checking ES quotes on my phone in between squat sets and I'm sweating the ticks instead of from exercise

From now on, I'm going to make a concerted effort to only trade when I'm in front of my charts and in the flow of the market. I'll set profit targets and not touch them if I step away until I can sit down again with a clear head and evaluate my position.

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  #66 (permalink)
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magic bullet

the magic bullet :


"From now on, I'm going to make a concerted effort to only trade when I'm in front of my charts and in the flow of the market. I'll set profit targets and not touch them if I step away until I can sit down again with a clear head and evaluate my position."

NOW TO HAVE THE DISCIPLINE to apply it CONSISTANTLY.

you stopped trading zb?


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  #67 (permalink)
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tbondtrader View Post
the magic bullet :

NOW TO HAVE THE DISCIPLINE to apply it CONSISTANTLY.

you stopped trading zb?


I stopped trading ZB a few months ago. I was poring over my stats and decided to go by instrument. As it turns out, my ZB edge was negative. I was losing an average three or four ticks per trade. Combine that with the large tick size and I figured that there was a little more room for error in the ES (especially because my expectancy is slightly positive in the ES).

The Ex-ZB trader in me is crying this morning I had half a mind to sell it for size in the ON, but there's always another trade!

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  #68 (permalink)
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Thursday:

The best thing I did today was not trade. I am horrendously poor at trading range days. I had a small bid at the OR-Mid working as the market made the first leg up; the trade filled, and it felt wrong so I immediately stopped it out for a -0.75 loss.

I stepped away from the market after that. In retrospect I should have stepped in with the buyers near the ETH swing high from the ON session Tues->Wed. I had a bid working a few points behind the market as it stairstepped back up to vwap. Once the vwap filled (and then +1SD), I pulled my bid because the trade that I was looking for didn't materialize.

I'm very bullish for Friday. We had a big 15 point move overnight and quiet chop today that gave shorts the opportunity to exit. If I traded overnight I would be long at the market. As Inletcap pointed out in the Spoo thread, the measure move from the Brexit lows to the July 4 highs to last Tuesday's lows brings a 100% extension around the 2185 level.

If we see orderly rotation down to the 2146 POC before moving up, I'll expect a slow, choppy push to 2185.

If the ON holds today's lows, I will look for responsive buying to hold today's 2158 POC and push to 2170. This is the case that I do not want to see happen. Back in January the market consistently gapped down overnight before chopping around during the day. The gaps forced sellers to chase and bulls to cover, causing increased selling. The intraday sellers were then slowly squeezed throughout the day as price gradually recovered, but the ES puked again and again in the ON session. I want to see the market offer bulls a chance to buy slightly lower. IMO a rally of the "Gap ON, Chop RTH" fashion portends an eventual sharp 20-30 handle selloff as all of the bulls that chased higher are shaken out of the market. I think the rally will be much more sustainable if the ES backs off ten to twenty handles to allow buyers back into the market.

I think that a Friday move to 2185 is very unlikely. The recent ranges have been small and the moves have come overnight.

So:

- If we gap up again I will expect another choppy day and I will stay away from the computer

- If we open in range and hold today's 52.75 low I will expect somewhat of an exhaustive push to 2170 to end the week off.

- If we open out of range (below 52) I will expect rotation to 46 with a likely low around 42.00. I expect this type of trade to be tough.

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  #69 (permalink)
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lax99 View Post
@rocksolid68 Thank you for taking the time to share your expertise! Trust me, it is well received. I think that part of my ON issue is that I can't "see" whose side I'm on. That is, I don't know whether the ON drifts are driven by OTF participation because the volume is low and I'm not watching the market.

I think the same could be said for when I'm at lunch or running errands during the trading day. I usually have a position on at this point with some sort of scale target; however, I'm not immediately in tune with the market, the TICKs, and the order flow to be able to properly manage my trade. I bet this is part of what starts me micromanaging trades. I'm checking ES quotes on my phone in between squat sets and I'm sweating the ticks instead of from exercise

From now on, I'm going to make a concerted effort to only trade when I'm in front of my charts and in the flow of the market. I'll set profit targets and not touch them if I step away until I can sit down again with a clear head and evaluate my position.

I have hurt myself numerous times trading from my iPad while away from my office- I realized I focus on the chart when all I have is my iPad and forget why I'm in the trade and what my important levels are. My rule now is I can only add to an existing trade unless I'm at my desk- no closing of trades and certainly no new positions

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  #70 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
I have hurt myself numerous times trading from my iPad while away from my office- I realized I focus on the chart when all I have is my iPad and forget why I'm in the trade and what my important levels are. My rule now is I can only add to an existing trade unless I'm at my desk- no closing of trades and certainly no new positions

Why do you constrain yourself to only adding to a position? Perhaps this is my inexperience talking, but it would seem to me that adding to a position if you don't have your platform in front of you could lead to executions in bad locations. Perhaps I've misinterpreted this--when you add from mobile, are you buying/selling a location that you've previously identified as a trading spot?

This is off topic but I figure I'll ask a seasoned pro. Did you ever battle with FOMO when you were becoming consistent? If so, what did you do to "fix" the problem? And if not, what was one of your significant battles that you didn't realize was problematic until much later?

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