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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)
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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)

  #41 (permalink)
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So my thesis last night was that we would trade higher today. I posted this in the Spoo thread but I'm going to start posting in my own journal again out of trying to avoid clutter in the Spoos.

Today opened, chopped around, created a base, and launched close to twenty points from the lows to the close. I'm expecting more of the same tomorrow. 2040 was a long term POC and it'd be strange if we didn't revisit it after Brexit before (likely) moving down to 2000 eventually.

I think there are two distinct cases that we will see tomorrow.

The first is an open very close to today's range, auction slightly lower to swing highs and LVN zone of 2018 and 2016, followed by an orderly push to the long term 2040 HVN, and then a possible late-day squeeze to 2050.

The second is an open around 2030 out of today's range, followed by an opening drive to 2040 and a quick rejection of the highs to see price trade back to the 2026 HVN zone and then today's 2013.50 POC.

I do not expect price to exceed today's low of 2006. The intermediate term is upwards, though it is a short squeeze, so I don't want to fight the long until the market turns and loses significant ground. If the market gaps down below today's range I will expect a fire sale to 1990 and then continued chop and rotation from 1980 to 1990.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Today opened out of range, offered a slight auction downwards, before bulls picked up all of the available batons and ran then twenty handles into the close. Honestly, I cannot forsee a case in which we plop back down to 2000, or even 2020. The bullish argument has been so strong since we decided that 1980 was too cheap. The end of the month is tomorrow and there's the ol' 12:00 fade trade (mountain time, so 2PM eastern) that looks for a high to be made two hours before the close of the month.

I personally don't put any weight behind "Sell at this time, you'll make a million bucks" because that's just not how the market works. I think we'll see an open in today's range tomorrow, and a rotation lower by about ten points into today's VWAP near 2055 and possibly down to the LVN in the low 2050s. From this point, I expect choppy accumulation similar to Tuesday's midday action before we run an assault on today's highs and then eventually to the POC of 2080 to complete three strong bullish days.

Because 2067-2070 is one of the very few LVN's in the recent trading range, I am going to be careful about long entries there because it's a low R/R zone--that is, until the market starts pushing 2080. I think it's low R/R because it's taking a trade under the assumption that the market will immediately reject the prices and push higher, instead of the more likely case in which the market drops a few handles before moving higher.


If we get Thursday like Tuesday, I expect bounces from 2050 to 2062, before pushing to 2080.

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On the other hand, if we gap higher into the 2075 range I will be anticipating choppy, mean reversion type trade like we saw Monday afternoon because of the wide POC up there. Of course this could all get blown out of the water if we gap to 2090 or 2100(!) but I do not expect a move like that to happen.


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I had a decent trade today. I got long at an advantageous location early in the day (2051.25) but I exited much too soon for only five points. Had I held to the end of day, I would have banked 15 whole points! However, in the moment I was not expecting a large move and 5 points was more than enough to bank for a half hour's efforts. In the future, I need to practice scaling into a trade on a day like this off of +1SD vwap to build my position size and run the balance for eight to ten points.


Last edited by lax99; June 29th, 2016 at 09:16 PM.
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  #43 (permalink)
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Nice clean thought process and charts! I like it.. What is the date range of your volume profile?

Edit:Yesterday's image had nothing between 70-90 but today's does and we didn't trade there

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  #44 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
What is the date range of your volume profile?

It's just current on screen trade. I'm away from my platform so I couldn't tell you for sure. In the future I'll specify the range.

My reasoning for the first chart range was that Friday's trade was most important to analyze, so I stopped the range after Friday. My reasoning for today's range is that we're out of Friday's range, so I need to start looking further back for clues.


Last edited by lax99; June 29th, 2016 at 10:42 PM.
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  #45 (permalink)
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Here's one bearish 'lean':

20 & 50 Day SMA's offering resistance:

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If you are bearish and looking for a short entry after 'Brexit', this is the price to try it.

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  #46 (permalink)
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Here's one bearish 'lean':

20 & 50 Day SMA's offering resistance.
If you are bearish and looking for a short entry after 'Brexit', this is the price to try it.

I looked back over my stuff and this is the bearish case I'm starting to see.

1) Couple of swing lows/highs from today, Friday, and 6/16 around the 2040-2042 zone.
2) If the dead cat is truly dead, we'll see the overnight start to lose ground--which it hasn't done yet.
3) You know what? For this bear to be alive, I think we have to stay above the LVN at 2051.50
4) If we start losing the HVN at 2062.50 (price becomes a swing high, touch-and-turn lower type trade) then I expect to trade 2051.50 and bounce for a few points.
5) From there, I would expect to trade the 2047 HVN, and then see a drop down to 2040.

I don't think we'll push much further beyond today's RTH lows. I think the market needs a day or two to digest the snappy rally that has occurred.

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  #47 (permalink)
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I was also feeling pretty bullish given today's action, but I know the market never makes it that easy for you. Now I feel more neutral about tomorrow. The bigger picture looks neutral itself. The main bear case I can make is that we haven't really paused or pulled back in the last two days. That's some pretty wild action considering we just sold the world on Friday out of the recent monthly balance. However, we are now back into that balance again.

I will be monitoring this cautiously for entries on both sides as long as there's good location involved. If we really want to push for highs, I suspect it could be an inside day tomorrow. However given these wide variations as of late, I'm suspect of that opinion too!

(Not a great trader/analyst of volume profiles yet but I'm working on it! I can't share zones with confidence yet.)

EDIT: I should add that overnight action + early TICK momentum + where advance/decline is opening relation to yesterday will add to my bias formation.

Trade in the present: what do you see developing today?

Last edited by metalhe4der; June 30th, 2016 at 01:23 AM. Reason: talk about momentum
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  #48 (permalink)
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Today was yet another insane day of bullish push. I am disappointed in myself; I outlined a plan for the market to trade the low 2060s and then turn and run. I didn't execute on this idea, and I only managed a profit today because of taking advantage of some newbies in a trading room. I think part of why I didn't buy on the way up was because I was looking for a +1SD retrace. Obviously there was one about two hours into the trading session. I didn't take advantage of this spot because I still didn't believe in the bullish move even after it had pushed 15 handles from the low. Talk about a lesson learned...

Obviously, days like these last three are anomalous; Brexit-like volatility is a black swan event. I think what I need to do going forward is provide myself context for the current trade, but the marketplace as well. If things are quiet for one reason or another, I need to recognize that. If things are moving like a train, I need to recognize that too.

Tomorrow is basically the day before the 4th of July. I expect most money managers to take off early because--let's be honest--it's been a long week and longs looking to defend their book have done a successful job. Any shorts will have hell to pay, but that isn't any of our problems. Along these lines, I'm looking for a choppy, small-range Friday with a slight downward bias as bulls step away for the weekend and give the bears five to ten points to play with.

I'm expecting rotation around 2088.50 (Today and Chart Range POC) with lows at most of 2076 near the LVN. In choppy trade I'd usually expect a smaller range; however, recent volatility has me expecting a wider range.

On the other hand if we push another thirty points then we would see trade above last Thursday's (pre-Brexit) high of 2016 up into 2110 possibly.
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  #49 (permalink)
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I was away from the markets all weekend long and I have only just gotten back to my computer. It appears that today saw a hard selloff in the overnight session after the 4th with healthy swings and VWAP touches to boot. The EOD action has me wanting to buy a few in the overnight and run them into the open with the expectation that we recover the HVN 2079 and possibly move back up to the LVN around 2092.

As a side note, the bonds had a great day and are going bid afterhours.

What would my risk be to the upside if I sold 2076? Perhaps trade back to today's POC of 2079. A three point stop though is hardly outside of the daily noise and I should be expecting a lot of noise around that HVN. What if we sell off and gap down, trade 2070, and then recover 2080 by tomorrow's close? That would certainly be keeping with the nature of auction back and forth around a HVN (barring some act of terror).

What would my risk to the downside be if I bought 2076? Similarly, I see a three point drop to 2073 (or 72.50 to be exact) as a suggestion of trade below today's low and an important swing low as well.

For the moment, I am long small 2077.25. I like to run overnight/swing trades typically for ten handles; we'll see how this turns out and I'll update my journal periodically if my decision changes.

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My goal going forward is to do replicate what GruttePier does as far as cataloging trades goes, as well as my analysis for the next day. So, here's Thursday and Friday's trade.

Thursday:

Trade 1: +1.25 (Short)
- Sold -1SD vwap to keep with the downward trend. Exited too soon (I read a post on the Spoo thread and exited manually instead of hitting my 85-82 zone of interest).
- Risk to VWAP, roughly 3 points

Trade 2: +9.50 (Long)
- Contract 1: Long 88.00, took heat down to the lows. In retrospect I should have exited it and tried to establish a better basis lower, but I was AFK during the trade.
- Contract 2: Long 84.50, saw almost an immediate two point pop up to my average. From here, I placed an order at RTH VWAP to scale (91.50) and I left the second contract as a runner.

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Friday:

Trade 1: +6 (Long)
- Long 17.25 as the market stalled midday and consolidated. I should have executed better by continually bidding at +1SD vwap. However, on a trend day like this, you never know the extent of the pullback. Three or four ticks might just be all the market has in it before going bid again!


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