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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)
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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)

  #21 (permalink)
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For Monday, I would like to see a selloff in GC so that I can buy it back at either the VWAP or lower. I think that this recent bid in gold might see us back up to recent highs at 1169. I am currently monitoring action on the 240 min (4 HR) chart which appears to be consolidating in a bullish fashion. I think that 1148 will provide significant resistance on the first test, which is another 9 ish points above the market.

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However, at the same time, the bearish argument can be made that this recent bid is nothing more than a 61.8 Fib retracement.

A few important values: Daily VWAP = 1135.5 ; Lower VWAP band = 1131.8.
I am a fan of the 1131.8 level, as it coincides with a 10 period EMA of 1130.7 and a S2 pivot of 1130.70 as well. As always, we'll see what happens in the morning.

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  #22 (permalink)
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Didn't trade today. Gold came off like I suspected, and found support near the levels that I selected. Going forward, tomorrow's price action will be important for gold. Today's trade created an inside range bar--typically a bearish formation. Bullish action will be above recent highs, and shorts will likely get stopped out above there.

For Tuesday, I'd like to sell bonds if given the chance. I see likely sell locations around the VWAP, at 154-13. This point coincides with a 38.2 retrace from the most recent 155-27 to 153-11 move, and an R1 as well.

On the other hand, today's ZB selloff touched the 61.8 almost to the tick from the 151-25 to 155-27 move. This could be indication of further positive pressure in the market.


I upgraded to NT8 Beta today. At first glance, the platform looks like a long overdue upgrade from NT7, but I don't see any humongous earth-shattering changes. I won't be trading from NT8 until the indicators that I use (mostly Gomi package, a bit of Fat Tails' stuff) become compatible with NT8.

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  #23 (permalink)
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9 / 22 / 2015 Update.

Tried selling ZB late in the day. Had the right idea but the wrong execution. Stopped out for -6 ticks. Bought ES late in the day for a closing pop, +4 ticks. I'm particularly proud of myself for the second trade because I set a profit target and stop loss, and walked away from the computer to grab lunch. When I came back, the trade was done and I had made money.
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My goal for tomorrow is to wake up early to catch either the open or an hour after the open to make more trading time available. I turned 21 today and decided to sleep in and not trade (wasn't hungover, I swear).

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  #24 (permalink)
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Zero trades during RTH today. I'm no good trading super-chop. I stayed away from the markets and battled a FedEx delivery error. I had a short term ZB trade during the ETH session, good for a few ticks to the upside. I'm looking forward to the new Elite ES intraday forum, should be good to toss around ideas with everybody. Below is the trade that I took this evening, good for roughly +7 ticks per contract.


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  #25 (permalink)
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It's been a couple of days since I updated my journal. There really isn't too much to report other than a couple of scalps--one was green and the other red. I'm essentially (profit wise) exactly where I left after the ZB trade. I'll do my weekend update here because I have a bit of time. I'll start by looking at my current Weekly Ninjatrader performance stats.


Weekly
=================
Total Net Profit: $ 805.00
Profit Factor : 1.88
Number Trades: 14
% Profitable: 71.43%
AvgWin/AvgLoss: 0.75
=================


Comparing these values to my current Monthly Stats (I started trading in NT7 on 9-15, so these stats are moreso 2-week stats)

==================
Total Net Profit: $ 1537.50
Profit Factor: 2.22
Number Trades: 22
% Profitable: 72.73%
AvgWin/AvgLoss: 0.83


Average Trade: $ 69.89
Average Winning: $ 174.77
Average Losing: $ 209.79

Avg MAE = - $105.34
Avg MFE = $172.67
Avg ETD = - $102.78

Based on these stats, I'm thinking that I need to manage my exits a bit better than I currently am. I think one of my troubles as a trader is that I get immensely greedy when I see green on my screen. As soon as that green starts to dwindle, I exit instead of taking the previously greater profit. I think that most of my weekly profit comes from one or two large trades, instead of consistent daily profits. I subscribe to a service--I would be willing to bet that those one or two large trades are from trading with the service, instead of my own day trading.

I'm not disheartened to realize this. So far, my interpretation would be that following the service more closely will help me increase my profitable trades.

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  #26 (permalink)
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Boy did I break my rules today. I kept on beating a dead horse that was refusing to move in the direction that I wanted, I overtraded for my account size, and I ended up down $462.50. I think that the reason that I traded so poorly was because I kept expecting a bounce in the ES. At each tick up or down I became too excited that I was making or losing money and I really just flubbed it in general.

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This big mess of entries boils down to me selling in the 8357 range and getting chopped to bits. I will cut my size back by half tomorrow and trade less frequently. I think my big issue with trading today was that I got in and out too much instead of defining a stop and target and letting the trade work itself out.

Speaking of tomorrow, I think we'll see a short covering squeeze overnight (as has been the recent trend) and then another selloff tomorrow which could take us down to the old lows (1822.75 in the ESZ contract).

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  #27 (permalink)
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Long ZB @ 157-21 average on the back of super bullish ZB/ super bearish ES today, and seeing the price action continue into the overnight session.

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  #28 (permalink)
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The recent Long ZB that I took ended up stopping me out overnight for an 18 tick loss. Looking back on it, the loss was by no means debilitating--but I made it debilitating by continuing to trade throughout the day with the goal of "making it all back". I ended up down even further on Tuesday. Today (Wednesday) went well. I was in a clear mental state and managed to make back 1/3 of what I lost on Wednesday.

I sold midday and happened to cover fifty cents from the LOD--talk about pure luck. I took two longs later in the day. I poorly traded the first long because I entered and exited in fear. The second long was similarly traded. I believe I managed it poorly because I jumped in and jumped right back out, leaving what could have been a multi-handle trade on the table.

Below are the trades that I took today.
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Moving forward:

The ES is currently trading 1919. If it opens above today's close (1902 ish), I believe that we'll see higher prices in a short squeeze above today's highs at 1910. I think that we'll trade up to the 1930 range around the most recent price value. My reasoning?

Daily EMA (21) = 1935.50
VWAP (35 Day Vol Profile) = 1933.25
Fibonacci Pivots R3 = 1927.5, R4 = 1946.25

If the market decides to sell off from these levels, we'd have to see a break of today's 1886.50 low for the short side to gain traction.

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  #29 (permalink)
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Weekly Performance Review:

I traded poorly this week. I think that my major issue was that I started increasing my size, and I got scared trading the size that I was. I am cutting back my trading size this week to try to regain my mental edge. At this moment, I shouldn't be worried about making back the money that I lost, but getting back to a state in which I believe in my ability to execute my plan.


This is what I want to achieve this week. I want to execute no more than 5 trades per day to perfection (using limit orders and a specific ATM strategy). I also want to trade moreso later in the day. I find that near the open I make snap decisions that lead me to trading scared. It is also easier for me to trade when I already have some idea of what the day's action has been. I don't like to guess on whether today will chop or trend. I like to wake up a little later and have some of today's trade decide that for me already.

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  #30 (permalink)
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I placed two trades today. The first was a mid-morning short. The short never caught any momentum, and I flipped long at 65.75. Unfortunately, I did not define a target well enough--I scratched the trade once it recouped the losses from my previous trade. At the end of the day, I left over 10 handles on the table.

For tomorrow, I think we'll see a classic counter trend Tuesday. I want to sell the bonds in the 158-14 zone based on a 38.2 Fib from the Friday highs to Monday's lows. The ES has an island bottom in place and I am targeting 2010. If the ES gets back to today's POC/VWAP area of 65.50, I want to be a buyer. I don't know if it will make it that far down though, because we hardly had a 5 handle correction for all of today. The indices bulls are really refusing to give this thing a moment to rest...

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