lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies) - Trading Journals | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)
Updated: Views / Replies:6,895 / 126
Created: by lax99 Attachments:94

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 94  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)

  #111 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
 
lax99's Avatar
 
Posts: 323 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 554 given, 654 received

Thursday's Trades:

1. Short 77.75, exited 77.25.
- The only issue I have with this trade is that I didn't make it sooner. I woke up late today (moving to new place, pretty exhausted overall) and immediately saw that I wanted to be short around the 79s. Thirty seconds later, the market was trading 77.
- Solid execution. I waited for a bid back up and sold the retrace.
- Not the best exit strategy. I saw the -600 ticks hit and thought "Goodnight Irene". I had a bid down at 74.50--the market stopped and turned at yesterday's VAH at 75.25.
- Had I recognized how quickly it turned, I may have gotten long sooner than I did...

2. Long 81.50 & 81.75, exited 83.75 & 83.50
- Market went bid hard from the lows even though TICK readings were on the fence.
- When I saw the IB consolidation, I punched three market orders in quick succession.
- I caught a nice scale and peeled off two contracts.
- I left the last to run for five to ten points, but when I saw the market refusing to do anything, I exited the last at the market.
- I was also running around to get things moved into my new place. I decided that I'd focus entirely on moving instead of sweating an OCO throughout the day and trying to check the position as I lifted bedframes and moved chairs.

_______________________________________
We've got another P-Shape profile...

Today felt like last Friday part two. A brief selloff on the open was met by buyers who drove the market to new highs. The highs then stalled, and sellers knocked price down a solid five handles off of the highs.

Theses for Friday: We've got PPI and Retail Sales before the open and then Consumer Sentiment a half hour after the bell.

1) The "P" is for real.
- Open in range, near today's 83 POC.
- Opening bid up to today's 85.25 high.
- Failure and choppy press down to VAL (80.75).
- Stop run down to 77 (weekly POC zone).

2) The market is moving into higher highs now.
- Open in range near today's VAL (80)->just far enough out of range to lure foolish sellers and entice smart buyers.
- Drive back into VAH (84)
- Bullish consolidation, continued march to 2190.

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to lax99 for this post:
 
  #112 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
 
lax99's Avatar
 
Posts: 323 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 554 given, 654 received

Second Week of August's Trades:

Overall, my execution was not great. My big issue in quiet range trade was stopping myself out. There were a few occasions in which I had the perfect idea, but I top-ticked myself. If I am going to be scaling into a trade, I need to have a predetermined plan to scale as well as an idea of what my stop conditions will look like. Right now, my stop conditions are pure price. I need to accommodate price action including TICK as well.


I made about eighty dollars this week, or roughly 1.75 ES points. Talk about a pitiful show for days of work--but at least it's a positive number.

Friday's trade was textbook balance. I expect this balance to lead to imbalance on Monday. Based on the overnight action, I am expecting a higher open and bullish price action. However, the market has been rather tricky to read...

Thesis for Monday:

1) Continued push to ATH.
- Friday's balance appears to have led to a bullish push in the Sunday ON.
- MM from 41.50->83.50->67.75 gives 50% target at 88.50, and 100% at 2209.50
- Buy the dips; I'd like to see an open around 83 (Fri-High, Thurs POC) get rejected down to Friday POC (79.25) or perhaps long term POC/ last week VWAP 77.25.
- Buy that dip, consider expansion below Friday's range as an invalidation and target Thursday's high (85.25) and then 88.

2) Friday's balance leads to exploration lower.
- ON prices fail; open below Friday VAL (78)
- Opening drop to Wed LVN (74), then rotation up to Friday's lows before auctioning in Wed value (2168-2174) for the rest of the day.


My money is on a push to 88. With the long term (Brexit) MM lining up with this shorter term MM at 88, I think that the high probability play is a long into monthly +2SD at 89.75. I'd love to be long and then see a melt-up into 2200, but that's hoping

Volume profile analysis has me thinking that bears are on the ropes and bulls keep absorbing the blows before eventually landing a haymaker. Check out the volume profile below. See the triangular nature? This typically is a sign of bears selling highs that bulls are continually defending. Most of the volume is right in the middle of the trading range (77) which means that the highs are being rejected and the lows are being rejected. The volume is not weighted towards the high end, which would look like a P-Shape, and be suggestive of buying exhaustion.

The volume is smack dab in the center, more of a B-Shape, and price keeps moving higher. Bulls are buying the breaks. Bears are trying to find a nice spot to sell the market--and some like Calafrius do an excellent job of doing so!--but it seems to me that the path of least resistance is higher for the time being.
Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to lax99 for this post:
 
  #113 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
 
lax99's Avatar
 
Posts: 323 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 554 given, 654 received


Monday 8/15 Trades:

1. Long 87, exit 86.50
- I had the direction right. I f****** bottom-ticked myself this time. I was even thinking "If the market gets close to the opening price, I should add another as an extreme-of-thesis trade.
- F****** hell. My mind was still elsewhere (finished moving this AM). Perhaps a solid night's sleep and concentration will help tomorrow.

2. Short 87, exit 87.50
- Same BS, different day. I convinced myself that somebody had stepped in to smack the market down and that I needed to be short. This was not remotely close to my thesis. This was shooting from the hip.

3. Long 89.50 (x2), exit 90.
- I hopped on the hype train to ATH's too late and found myself in a very poor R/R sitting. FOMO strikes again, it appears...

4. Long 90.50 (x2), exit 89.25.
- This was the +5/-5 trade that I wrote about in the Spoos. I thankfully sat down to the computer to see the market stalling, and I closed the position out. That could have been a pricey drawdown.


Today was characterized by poor R/R and terrible, horrible, no good, very bad executions. Why the hell can't I stick to my plan? I think part of it is that I'm expecting volatility and motion. When I don't get it, my theses don't stick, and I end up forcing my beliefs on the market instead of taking what it gives me.

And frankly, on days like these in the ES, it's better to just sit out all day instead of scrap for a few points.


Thesis for Tuesday:

MP/VP--POC 89.75, VAH 90.50, VAL 87.25. Somewhat P-Shaped, but the profile is not as thin and elongated as P-Shapes usually are. The U-turn nature of today's action has me thinking lower prices tomorrow--> that is, that the P-Shape already played out. The normal selloff that we would see a day after actually occurred in afternoon trade.

VWAP--Weekly not useful yet. Y-Week +2 @85.50, so it is possible that today's push was actually a rejection off of a longer term +3SD touch. Lower targets include Y-Week VWAP & W-Pivot @ 77.50.


1) No OTF == No trend. "Bracketing"/Range Trade
- Today's +3SD push (Y-Week vwap) was rejected. We are going to see trade fall right back into longer term value.
- Open in lower end of range. I will be looking to sell the open. The 85.50 LVN is an important support line, marking swing highs and lows for quite some time.
- Morning auction slightly higher. Fairly dull TICK readings, not many +600s.
- Rollover down through 85.50.
- Recover 87.25 VAL->retail bus, add on short here
- Sell down into 2180 around previous value.


2) Stop Run Higher.
- Open near the high end of value (2188 ish).
- Push into 92 for new highs->I want to see the market quickly convert the POC into support rather than overhead resistance.
- Buy some sort of dip into today's 89.75 POC and look for W-R2 to hit at 2195.25

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to lax99 for this post:
 
  #114 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
 
lax99's Avatar
 
Posts: 323 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 554 given, 654 received

I've considered dabbling in crude recently. It seems that what volatility existed in ES simply picked up its bags and walked over to CL.

CL Theses:

MP/VP-- Since the 8/10 lows were put in, the market has been seeking value higher ever since. We saw signs of sellers entering the market today near the upper range, but the fact of the matter remains that we closed on the damn highs (RTH).

VWAP-- I'm zooming out to monthly to get some usable context here. 45.00 is last month's VWAP and 46.90 or so is +1SD. If this eight dollar leg up turns out to be the middle of a measured move, I would like to see heavy resistance and selling at these levels.

The fact is that we really haven't seen any sign of stopping and we've recovered old resistance in the 45-47 zone.

1) Market Pushes ADR-H, stops run above 46.84, 47 LVN marks stopping point.
- Opening drive to W-R2 @ 46.58
- Breather down to W+2SD
- Late day stop run and pursuit of 47.00

2) Market loses recent highs and W-R1
- W-R1 loss turns into pursuit of VAL 45.25
- Wide +2/-2 VWAP swings eventually push us to Friday's range, and possibly VAH (44.50)

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


What do you guys think? How has the crude trade been going recently?


Last edited by lax99; August 16th, 2016 at 02:23 AM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to lax99 for this post:
 
  #115 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 3,609 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 26,588 given, 11,018 received


lax99 View Post
I've considered dabbling in crude recently. It seems that what volatility existed in ES simply picked up its bags and walked over to CL.

...
What do you guys think? How has the crude trade been going recently?

My only forays into crude have convinced me that it can tear your head off very, very quickly.

However, it sure does have more volatility.

This is just my fairly uniformed take. Someone who knows both markets well can give you a better idea, one way or the other. But, I would just say, "Be careful."

Bob.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to bobwest for this post:
 
  #116 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Boston, MA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7
Favorite Futures: CL, RB, LE
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 102 given, 174 received


lax99 View Post
I've considered dabbling in crude recently. It seems that what volatility existed in ES simply picked up its bags and walked over to CL...

...What do you guys think? How has the crude trade been going recently?

I haven't had much experience in the ES, but have been following CL for quite a while. CL has certainly been consistently volatile. I looked at an ES chart this morning, going back 10 days, and frickin' live cattle has had more price action on many of those days!

While bobwest says that CL can bite your head off very, very quickly, and I agree, there are even more dangerously volatile instruments out there, like GC. That one doesn't just bite your head off, but can eat you alive. But to me, CL is more "tameable", if that is such a thing.

And you are certainly starting to look at CL at an interesting time, because we are at the peak of the CL glut, the lackluster summer driving this year in futures is now over (Oct CL contracts and beyond, which means demand will start rising by then for heating oil and other distallates)... the Saudi prince and domestic suppliers are speaking of holding their meetings to try to stabilize general oil prices, and refinery demand seems to be on the verge of a rise.

How will it all play out this winter? Who can be sure? But it's definitely a popcorn market, worthy of a look from you, to sniff it out.

CL is DEFINATELY the true definition of a speculator's market, unlike something like GC, which to me seems more a knee-jerk reactionary market (I.E., Safe-haven syndrome).

Would love to see your analysis of CL as you dive deeper into it lax99, if you decide to.

P.S. Be careful on Wednesdays at 10:30 AM ET, that's when the weekly inventory numbers come out, and it can sometime get whacky at that time. (Except after US federal holidays, they delay it by a day.)


Last edited by HoopyTrading; August 16th, 2016 at 01:28 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to HoopyTrading for this post:
 
  #117 (permalink)
Elite Member
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 9,765 given, 25,651 received

CL is different than the indices for sure but once you get a feel for it it's not really as bad of an animal as I first thought- it took me months to get partially comfortable with its moves but I'm starting to feel its rhythm daily. Finding VP to be very valuable so you may have a good start

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to Inletcap for this post:
 
  #118 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
 
lax99's Avatar
 
Posts: 323 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 554 given, 654 received

I didn't have the time to update last night, so here goes.

Tuesday's trading was all kinds of sloppy and awful. I ended up down significantly because I refused to see the rotations that were happening on the short side all day long. I continued to buy it and look for the moon without scaling any out. I had three or four "full boats" which I stopped out.

In quiet markets, I need to run the hell away from the computer. I'm a horrendous overanalyzer--"XYZ just happened, PDQ might happen, I'll try ABC because LMNOP is going to happen". I just need to take a break in a quiet market. I cannot increase risk on trades which I see moving ten handles before they even print a point to the good.

Anyway, I stepped away from the computer this morning to force myself to take a break and avoid revenge trading. I knocked a nice gold long out of the park on the report (bought on the recovery) which has recovered about half of yesterday's losses.

______________________________

I'm currently short ES because it's behaving strangely. Today's high was right in yesterday's POC. Since then, we've chopped and are starting to see rejection around the highs. Something feels off, and when something feels off, I'm going to fade the market with small size.

Position: Short 76.00 (x2), looking for IB Mid @ 72.50 to come back into play. Best case scenario, the bottom drops out of ES and we revisit the spike from the FOMC report at 69.25

Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


Edit: Just shut the platform down for the day. I've got mobile access, but I'm running my shorts ON.


Last edited by lax99; August 17th, 2016 at 03:19 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to lax99 for this post:
 
  #119 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ZB, ES
 
lax99's Avatar
 
Posts: 323 since Jun 2015
Thanks: 554 given, 654 received

Trades for Wed 8/17/2016:

I took the morning off after a poor showing yesterday. As it turns out, my fades would likely have worked well in the AM session. I am overall glad that I took the break though. As RockSolid mentioned in the Spoos thread earlier today, trading is almost completely a psychological feat; a mental marathon, if you will, sprinkled with sprints.


1) Long GC from 1350 & 1344.80, exit 1351
- I'm long term bullish and thought that FOMC would be a good time to establish a long off of some knee-jerk action. I ended up being right, but I didn't take as much home as I should have.
- Hot damn are the metals riddled with algos!! I use Bookmap to take a look at tick-by-tick action at times, and the limit order book reacted almost instantly to changes in price. For example, if GC ticked up by two ticks, the order book as a whole ticked up. It was weird to see the market move in such a fashion. The ES usually doesn't see that type of action at all. Limit orders are typically fairly steadfast zones of interest in the ES, instead of fleeting opportunities as I saw in GC.

2) Short ES (x2) from 76, exited 1 at 81.50 to reduce risk.
- I executed based on my belief at the time. I don't fault myself for the trade placement. Unfortunately, the remaining contract is taking about 6.50 points of heat. This is usually the point at which I consider my thesis to be incorrect.
- The recovery of higher prices (and the weekly pivot/long term POC) has me worried on the short.


3) Long SI from 19.78
- After exiting my GC trade and seeing it go bid after a daily VWAP touch, I realized that my bullish metal thesis was probably correct. I like the R/R of SI a bit better, as current prices are very close to the lows for the range since the start of July.
- Because this is a big contract, I'm not going to add to my position. I've got about a 0.130 point lead on it and I'd like to see 20.500 recovered. My long term thesis is that we've got a weekly bull flat setting up (yes, I know silver loves to foil chart patterns) and I want to be long for a test of $22(!).

___________________

I just exited my ES short. I've been chopped to bits in the Spoos recently. The short side may be right, but I want to sell it from 86 or 87--> not nurse a short from 76. Flat for -7.00 and -6.00. Ouch

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to lax99 for this post:
 
  #120 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
Thanks: 1,321 given, 2,654 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



lax99 View Post
Trades for Wed 8/17/2016:

I took the morning off after a poor showing yesterday. As it turns out, my fades would likely have worked well in the AM session. I am overall glad that I took the break though. As RockSolid mentioned in the Spoos thread earlier today, trading is almost completely a psychological feat; a mental marathon, if you will, sprinkled with sprints.


1) Long GC from 1350 & 1344.80, exit 1351
- I'm long term bullish and thought that FOMC would be a good time to establish a long off of some knee-jerk action. I ended up being right, but I didn't take as much home as I should have.
- Hot damn are the metals riddled with algos!! I use Bookmap to take a look at tick-by-tick action at times, and the limit order book reacted almost instantly to changes in price. For example, if GC ticked up by two ticks, the order book as a whole ticked up. It was weird to see the market move in such a fashion. The ES usually doesn't see that type of action at all. Limit orders are typically fairly steadfast zones of interest in the ES, instead of fleeting opportunities as I saw in GC.

2) Short ES (x2) from 76, exited 1 at 81.50 to reduce risk.
- I executed based on my belief at the time. I don't fault myself for the trade placement. Unfortunately, the remaining contract is taking about 6.50 points of heat. This is usually the point at which I consider my thesis to be incorrect.
- The recovery of higher prices (and the weekly pivot/long term POC) has me worried on the short.


3) Long SI from 19.78
- After exiting my GC trade and seeing it go bid after a daily VWAP touch, I realized that my bullish metal thesis was probably correct. I like the R/R of SI a bit better, as current prices are very close to the lows for the range since the start of July.
- Because this is a big contract, I'm not going to add to my position. I've got about a 0.130 point lead on it and I'd like to see 20.500 recovered. My long term thesis is that we've got a weekly bull flat setting up (yes, I know silver loves to foil chart patterns) and I want to be long for a test of $22(!).

___________________

I just exited my ES short. I've been chopped to bits in the Spoos recently. The short side may be right, but I want to sell it from 86 or 87--> not nurse a short from 76. Flat for -7.00 and -6.00. Ouch

I love it! The commentary and strategy is awesome! Keep it up!

The Gold trade; you pressed your thesis and it ended up paying off, didn't that feel good?! Now, imagine if you held for longer and more money.. it would be even more exhilarating, right!?

Get excited! You predicted the financial markets of the United States of America!!!! Billions and billions of dollars are spent trying to predict the markets, and you did it alone!!! Get out of your chair and jump around and get excited!!!! Now sit back down and realize that you beat everyone else in the market, so why quit now? Keep that winning position on and make MORE MONEY!!!

Keep it up @lax99

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to rocksolid68 for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)
 

RandBots: AutoTrading Bots to diversify your trading

Oct 24
 

TopstepTrader: Profiting Without Risking Your Own Money

Oct 26

Building Open Source Indicators for NT8 w/Fat Tails @ Lizard Indicators

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
ES momentum trading Journal mbastiani Trading Journals 7 February 11th, 2016 09:43 AM
ZB Trading Journal Retiredone Trading Journals 4 June 22nd, 2015 05:45 PM
Level 2 - TF/ZB Trade Journal Level2Trader Trading Journals 1 April 7th, 2015 05:05 PM
Brokerage execution comparison for ES/ZB: Interactive Brokers vs. Ninjatrader Silent warrior Reviews of Brokers and Data Feeds 4 March 15th, 2015 12:57 PM
Trading Journal May 7-9 Es iribar Trading Journals 3 August 14th, 2014 04:55 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:17 AM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-10-23 in 0.21 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.224.13.210