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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)
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lax99's Trading Journal (ES/ZB/Some Currencies)

  #91 (permalink)
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So what did I do right today versus yesterday?

I believed in my thesis. Note that None of my theses were correct. If you had paid me to tell you what the market was going to do, I would have been dead wrong. However, I started the day thinking that my analyses must be correct. As soon as none of them played out, I realized that I had to adjust my beliefs and trade what the market was giving me. I was considering getting short but decided against it after we tested IB Low and saw a strong bounce. I entered my long order when the market saw a quick VWAP bounce; I was filled and hardly saw a tick or two of red before the trade was multiple points in my favor.

That's the part that I really like. Only those who create and believe in their own analysis can explain the pleasure of being in this "marriage".

I like a lot your way to explain your entries and I'm always an eye on what you and @Inletcap are doing, even if I do not use (or believe) in your tools. but that does not mean that we do not agree.

yyyhaaa!

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  #92 (permalink)
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Calafrius and Inletcap, thank you both for participating in my journal! I really do appreciate the comments, even if I address them hours later

For Tomorrow:

BOJ BS tonight at 11 PM my time. I'll be up to get a read on what to expect for the morning. It seems so far that FOMC was almost a nonevent as we're stuck in the same range that we've been in all week. Perhaps the Japanese will give OTF something to talk about...

My plans for tomorrow revolve around 2161 and 2164. I've written previously on them; they are HVNs and LVNs, respectively. Unless we gap to either 2150 or 2170 and see an opening drive, I am 95% sure that we will see 2161 trade. Tomorrow is the last trading day of July, so if you're not profitable yet, start slinging 100 lots! In all seriousness, there are a couple of late day trades that look for market weakness as money managers step away for the month. I'd love to fade (and get long against) those trying to sell at "This magic time at a magic price, but only after I see confirmation...", but I'll wait to see what the market has to offer tomorrow.

1) BOJ lights a fire under ES' ass
- We gap open somewhere in the 2170 range. I want to see an opening drive in this case. I want to see price push hard and quick for five handles before thinking about rotating back. I want to see measured move targets hit all over the place (I think Inletcap has one around 2180, I'm looking at 85 and I think FuturesTrader71 has 77 in his sights).
- If we get the opening drive, I'll look to establish an early long and scalp +1/+2 SD all day long.
- I'll look for +600 tick readings all day long with limited negative tick readings.


2) More damn Auctioning
- We open in range somewhere around 2167.
- The market rallies to find sellers in the 2172 zone where price failed a few nights ago, and then rotation lower begins.
- 2172 becomes 2167 (or the open) in quick trade, we see 2164 trade and bounce slightly before reaching 2161 POC.
- I'd look for a ten handle IB (~2170 to 2161) and an opportunity to buy a dip into 2155 which continues to hold.

3) BOJ kicks ES in the teeth
- An open around 2155-2157 sees responsive buying/profit taking back to 2161.
- 2161 gets knocked down, we retest the open, and plummet to 2149.



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____________________________

For those wondering, the end of month trade is a short with a three to five point stop at 2 PM eastern looking for a five to ten handle selloff. Note that people take this trade regardless of price action. Last end of month I picked the pockets of a room full of retail folks who sold something like a 20 handle rally "because the R/R was favorable". It was seriously remarkable to watch a room full of about ten traders convince themselves that they had to be short after the market had done absolutely nothing but rally. Perhaps I'll get to do the same tomorrow

____________________________________

Apparently BOJ was at 10 PM my time... Hey everybody, look at the engineer who can't do math to convert time zones


Last edited by lax99; July 29th, 2016 at 12:31 AM.
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  #93 (permalink)
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lax99 View Post
So what did I do right today versus yesterday?

I believed in my thesis. Note that None of my theses were correct. If you had paid me to tell you what the market was going to do, I would have been dead wrong. However, I started the day thinking that my analyses must be correct. As soon as none of them played out, I realized that I had to adjust my beliefs and trade what the market was giving me.

I think this is one of the best things I have read on FIO in some time.

"None of my theses were correct" !!!

But you can't trade without one. Hopefully, you adjust it when you need to.

Very nice. My hat's off to you.

Bob.

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  #94 (permalink)
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It's a new month! My last month ended on a red note because of poor trading during the beginning of the month. I was scatterbrained and executing awfully. I will change that for good this month. I will trade according to whichever thesis seems most probable, I will trade in the direction of the trend, I will not trade without having a thesis, and I will set a ten handle profit target on any runners.


We've pushed even higher on Sunday night, and I'm starting to get in trend day mode. The simple fact of these last couple weeks of trade is that price was accepted. Dips to 2152 were bought all week long and Friday tried to push for new highs but saw strange distribution in afternoon trade. Sunday gapped open higher and I would love to buy the gap down to 2171 at yesterday's close.

Theses for Monday 8/1:

1) Market moves higher.
- 14 day ADR is 12.25 handles. Friday's range was 14.25 handles which was abnormal. I continue to expect small ranges as we push for new highs; bullish trend trade is typically slow and methodical, and not at all like a melt-up.
- My measured move from Brexit lows to 4th of July highs to July 6th lows is 2188.
- I expect to see an open auction out of range. I expect the market to gap open higher but test back down into Friday's range (2167 POC).
- I'm thinking we'll see responsive buying at these levels but I'll be wary if this push higher is nothing but a bull trap.
- Iceberg buyers hitting the bid around 2170 into 2167; signs of scale out orders sitting around 75 into 80.

2) Market is nothing but a bull trap.
- Market gaps open higher and we see an opening drive into 2177 (Y-Day POC + 10).
- Around midday we see signs of stalling; -600 TICK, one-tick highs, puncture of +1SD without recovery...
- Market rolls over back to yesterday's high of 2171.75 and bounces (Ideally 2171.75 is around VWAP, so we can sell a bounce up to +1sd)
- Market finishes in Friday's value around 2167.
- Iceberg sellers stepping in just before 2180, one constant line of limit sells sitting overhead which is never reached.

3) Market trends all day long for about twenty handles.
- Open out of range, strong opening drive met with very little countertrend trade, constant +1sd->+2sd rotation, frequent +600 TICK readings with very few dips into the -400 TICK range.
- Iceberg all day long, limit sells getting punched through, small 1 to 2 point rotations.


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I believe Thesis 3 is the least likely to happen because I believe that institutions bought ES a long time ago. I don't think they need to load up on a 10,000 contract position that would push the market to 2200. Furthermore, it's summer. It's August and a whole lot of people are on vacation. I think it's totally possible that the only people playing are retail and locals; by their powers combined, we'll be lucky if we see 15 handle ranges to exploit.


___________________________________________________

Just realized that I didn't do a postmortem on Friday's trade.

Trade 1: Long 69.25, stopped 67.50.
- My idea was right but I was a bit early. My risk tolerance was such that I exited the market to look for a better entry.
- I scaled in too early. I bought the second contract a couple of minutes after the first instead of looking for a better location.
- In hindsight I should have waited for the market to hit the zone where I exited, and I should have scaled in totally at this point.

Trade 2: Long 67.75, 68.50, exit 68.75
- My execution was much better though I hesitated on adding on where I should have added.
- I had scale outs set and everything was looking good. Then the market decided to lose three and a half points in a matter of seconds.
- I exited as soon as I realized that the market action was in opposition to what I expected to happen.

Trade 3: Long 67.25, exit 70.50
- This was a great little three point trade to end the day on. It was a gut feel trade because the market continued to hold in the previous price zone where it saw a pop.
- I should have scaled in for size, but I was away for the computer for a couple of minutes and came back to a nice green P&L.
- I took profits in the previous area of resistance.

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Last edited by lax99; July 31st, 2016 at 07:58 PM.
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  #95 (permalink)
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Monday Trades:

Trade 1: Long 64.50, 67.25, exit 71 & 70.50.
- I was surprised by the selloff on the opening bell. I stayed away for about the first half hour to let the market tell me where it wanted to go.
- Once I saw that Y-Day LVN zone and -1SD seemed to be holding, I entered a pilot long with a mental stop of about two points.
- My pilot long almost immediately printed +1.50, so I realized that I should increase my risk on the trade.
- I bid VWAP before the market pushed to +2SD; my bid never filled.
- I moved my bid higher to +1SD and that filled easily. The trade bounced nicely off of VWAP and accelerated to new RTH highs.

In hindsight, I should have scaled long again on the VWAP touch. However, I'll take my 9.75 points and walk away for the day with a smile on my face. Today's action was really weird too. I'm pretty much just glad that I didn't end up in the red today. After we saw highs, the market plummeted thirteen points without so much as a three point rotation, and then it stalled out in choppy range.

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  #96 (permalink)
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Today's volume profile was b-shaped. Most of today's volume was traded in the range 2160-2165. Traditional profiling suggests that today was a "long liquidation" day; this certainly fits with the sharp and fast selloff that we saw midday. To me, today seemed like shorts got stopped out in the overnight. They were then forced to chase lower, which caused the overnight selling into the AM low. Once the ON longs were flushed, the market bounced to trick them once more. The afternoon trade seemed very much like accumulation in my opinion; I'm expecting the bullish ON action to continue tomorrow back up to the ON 77.75 high.

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Trade also touched the 14 day ADR-H and ADR-L at 72.75 and 60.25, respectively.

Theses:

1) Market has now seen the highs and we commence trade back to 2100.

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- First of all, it doesn't feel like that. This is just to wrap my head around the bearish viewpoint.
- Open in auction, above today's +1SD 67.75.
- Push to today's high 72.75.
- Quick rejection like we saw this morning; trade back to today's POC 64.50.
- Small bounce to today's mid afternoon swing high (or likely RTH VWAP).
- Continued rejection and strong selling to Friday's swing low 57.50.




2) Market continues auction and continues to push higher. (Assuming Monday was a Long Liquidation)

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- Open around 2164, today's POC.
- Orderly push into 2170 (upper end of Friday POC zone).
- Three to four point rotation back (today swing high 66.75).
- Acceleration through stops around 73 up to 75-77.

________________________

I will likely not be tremendously active tomorrow or for the next few days. My lady friend and I are separating and I'm very wary of being in a bad emotional state of mind for trading.

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  #97 (permalink)
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I had two trades today which were both losers. I tried buying the market twice at 47. I stopped myself out the first time for a 1.5 point loss and the second time for a 2.75 point loss. In hindsight both longs would have been healthy winners by EOD. I was unsure of myself buying down at the lows because I didn't have a contingency plan for trade down here; I wasn't certain of what levels I deemed important and my heart and head weren't in today's trade.

I'm just thankful that my losses were minimal. If I started revenge trading I would have probably sold the lows and worked myself into a significant hole.

Week Total: +2.75 points, down 7 points from Monday's +9.75.
Today's range was 22.50 points, which is a full ten handles larger than the ADR-14.
Today's POC is 2147, though I'd consider the whole range 46.50-53.00 as a HVN zone.

Thesis for Tuesday:

1) The highs are in. Now we trade to 2125.
- Open near today's close (2153), but certainly within today's range.
- Responsive push up to 2157 to reach this week's RTH VWAP.
- Ten handle rejection down to today's POC (2147).
- Bounce to the daily VWAP; this will have to change on the fly as I see what the market is giving me...
- Sell off to the high 2130s that have yet to see RTH auction.

2) Today was a fakeout. Now we push higher.
- Open around 2157 (weekly vwap) and push to 2161 (long term POC) to squeeze shorts and lure longs.
- Lure shorts back in with trade down to the significant lows we saw all last week (2154 area).
- Squeeze back past 2161 and close near highs at 2165 LVN area.

Personally, I believe the first case is more likely. I think that we've seen intermediate term highs and that we now need to go test a couple of old swing highs at 2120. It's hard for me to get too bearish though. There are plenty of Chicken Littles calling 2177.75 the highest price we'll see until year 2050; I think it's foolish to believe that strongly.

I think that the smart move in this market is looking for the stops and anticipating retail behavior. I'm looking for stops around these prices:

2141.50: Today's low. Current line in the sand for the rest of the week to stare at...
2136.75: 7/11 swing high. Also a gap fill if we push that low.
2126.00: VERY low volume zone. IMO this would be a likely cap on the week's downward action IF we trade that low.

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__________________________________
My mental state today was totally out of whack. I had a million other things on my mind. I still believe in the analysis and trade that I put on midday. If given the opportunity again, I would have taken the same trade. I'm happy with my execution today. Had I been in the right mental state, I like to think that I would have taken advantage of the late day rally.

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  #98 (permalink)
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Today's trades:

1: Short 54.50 & 53 on VWAP retest, stopped out 54.50
- I would make the same trade again. The one thing that I would change is that I would have scaled out on the first strong down leg because the market was quiet. I should have recognized the (likely) reduced possible size-of-leg downward because we had been in a damn 9 point range all day.

2: Short 54.75, stopped 56.25
- I wouldn't make this trade again. This was a crap shoot kind of trade; "It touched IB High, so it must go lower" was something along my line of thinking. That was foolish and unprofessional. In hindsight, the market had been steadily trending upward for the entire day and I should not have taken a second late-day short.

__________________________________________

For Tomorrow:

Like Inletcap, I'm liking the short side but I'm uncertain of its profit potential. I have no short position yet but I want price to explore lower. Today had a beautiful normal distribution on the volume profile which suggests that if there were any OTF players clicking buttons today, the buyers and sellers agreed on market valuation between 2152 @ 2156.

The one thing that surprised me about today's trade was how orderly and bullish it was. The morning opened up, dropped three handles to draw in buyers, and closed ten handles off of the lows. What's so bearish about that, after all? I watched FT71's video this morning and one of the things that he mentioned was that "If it tests lower and pushes higher, it is likely to take back the selloff we had yesterday (Tuesday)."

The market tested lower, found buyers, and pushed higher today.

Thesis for Thursday:

1) Market recovers weekly Pivot (64.75 HVN zone)
- Similar to today, we push lower on the open to draw in buyers. The market is 58 last. I would love to buy a discount at today's POC of 53.75.
- This week's LVN around 59 fails in the ON. Open near today's 57 close.
- Selloff to HVN zone 53, possibly down to 51.50
- Quick recovery of 53.75 POC, push to 59 LVN zone.
- LVN sees initial selloff. Selloff is bought (with trade back to VWAP or maybe +1sd).
- Market sees late day push to recover weekly +1SD of 63.50 and weekly pivot of 64.75.

2) Market rolls over after seeing 57s trade.
- Open in today's range, but slightly lower (53 or maybe 50).
- Push higher to weekly VWAP (56.25) to trick buyers and offer sellers a good spot to enter.
- Rejection down past Y-day POC (53.75), down to Y-day low (47).
- Three to five point rotations as the market stairsteps downward along -1SD/-2SD like we saw on Monday.
- I think weekly S2 (45) will hold the market. However, if we see another twenty point trend lower, we will break past Tuesday's lows and probably see somewhere in the high 2130 range act as the low.


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  #99 (permalink)
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Thursday Trades:

1) Long 4 from 60.50 average, scaled 2 @ 63.50 (HOD!) and 2 scratched at b/e.
- Great little trade on a VWAP bounce. My only issue is that my execution was poor. Instead of bidding VWAP and waiting for a fill down there, I was punching in market orders. I could have probably eked out a few extra ticks with great execution.
- I'm surprised that I sold the highs! I expected a push to 14 day ADR-H at 2167 or so. Obviously that didn't come and I'm just glad to bank a little bit of income today.
- I'm starting to take to heart what @Inletcap said a few weeks ago. To paraphrase, "If [a price zone] looks like it's working, it's my job to get as big as possible and then focus on taking money out of the trade". I got as big as I was comfortable doing and then I looked for solid scale out.
This week's trade has been pretty damn boring after the large selloff. I'm guessing that everybody and their broker is waiting for NFP data tomorrow morning. I'm expecting a 20 handle range tomorrow on the back of NFP volatility. I'll update my theses later this evening, but it's time to head outside and enjoy life now!

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___________________________

I've decided to update my theses tomorrow morning after the data is out before the open. If I say "expect X, then Y, then Z" and the data comes out at like +/- 400,000 then my ideas will all be useless. For now though I'm expecting bullish price action tomorrow, and possibly a twenty handle trend day to take out the Tuesday selloff.
______________________________________

Thesis 1: Opening Drive from good data, trend day.

- We've opened at 2168, tested slightly lower to 66.50, and are now pushing higher.
- 14 day ADR-H is basically 2180; expecting +1SD/+2SD rinse and repeat action.

Thesis 2: Rollover and continue the auction in balance.
- We've got a ton of volume around the 2160-61 area.
- If we rollover from here (72 last, 73 high) I'm looking for a failure to the open.
- Past the open, we'll probably see a bounce near Y-High, and then trade back to the long term POC at 2160 (give or take)


Last edited by lax99; August 5th, 2016 at 09:50 AM.
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  #100 (permalink)
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Friday's Trades 8/5/2016

Trade 1: Long 74 & 74.50, exited 76.
- This was the trade that I wanted to take almost to a T. I could have executed slightly closer to VWAP but I am happy with the average long that I had from a R/R standpoint.
- My initial target was a bit high given the sudden range reduction that developed. In hindsight I should have shot for weekly R1 and called it good. I think this ended up costing me in the end. I exited on what was definitely a retail bus setup, as the market popped two points after I hit the "Close" button.

I traded well this week. My executions were not perfect but they are much improved compared to the previous week. My theses are not always right--in fact, I think they were almost all wrong this week--but I'm making money because I know what zones I want to fade and what kind of action tells me I'm right or wrong.

I made 9 handles this week. I'm disappointed because I was up 9.25 on Monday; somehow I managed to lose that amount, and then almost make it back by the end of week. I suppose that I might need to manage my risk a bit better if I'm erasing a day's profits in a short while, and then barely making it back by the end of the week.

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