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Nikko's journal, forex and european equities


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Nikko's journal, forex and european equities

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  #1 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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Hi

I trade mainly Aud/Usd, Eur/Usd and CAC (french stock market)

I try to make 1 or 2 short term trade (intraday) a day and some swing trades (few days, rarely week) when opportunity arise.

I look to place my short term trade mostly in the morning (europe time) or after the new york open volatily cooled down.

I trade aud and euro looking at the different correlated pairs and cac looking at dax and stoxx in the morning and spx in the afternoon.

My method is to identify potential inflexion zone, enter with minimum or without price confirmation for the short term trade and with it for the swing trades.

I apply an all in/scale out execution for intraday and for my swing trade I scale out and sometime add after this if the trade continues my way.

I'll try to post all my trade ideas and real trade here from the start of next week.

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  #3 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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News heavy week for forex : rba and gdp for aud, ecb for euro and nfp to end the week

I would like to get short cac or dax to play a correction ahead of ecb, long euro is the same trade so I'll enter on wichever offer the best set up

And maybe long aud around 7090 with rba and before gdp

dax and cac seems to be already turning down, first support on dax is around 10090 for me

first trade of the week (short term): long euro around 1.1215 targeting 1.1225, 1.1235 at first

edit : first target hit scale out 1/4 here for 9,5 pips and adjusting SL ; I may adjust 2nd target
out at 1.1210 for a smallish loss counting the scale out, price action too slow and not convincing

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  #4 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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2 nd trade of the day : short cac at 4658

took off 1/4 for 17 pts ; 2nd target at 4634 if we get there

I tried to attach pictures but apparently can't do it yet, will when when my post number will allow it

2nd target hit for 24 pts, took 1/2 off, open target on the last 1/4

stopped at breakeven on the remaining 1/4

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  #5 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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trade ideas to start the week (short indexes, long euro and long aud near 7090) were good.

couldn't bank on the euro idea as the moov start later yesterday than I thought,
first hurdle is around 1.13 in my view and I might short it this morning to play a pullback

for indexes, had a nice intraday trade yesterday but there is more room to the downside imo,
4590/75 cac, 10000/1060 dax, 3225/3200 stoxx could be seen
long from these zones if reached seems a decent idea

aud long worked good, it's already in the first resistance zone and with gdp later, it's a guessing game for now, could as well go to 0.72 than break the lows

edit : preopen more violent than I thought, only dax is holding the zone I had in mind, but with euro at resistance I still believe indexes should bounce from here

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  #6 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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I couldn't find any decent set up to enter short on euro this morning,

will look for it this afternoon as I think pullback is not done yet, but won't rush it and I may wait for a buying opportunity lower depending on how the start of afternoon plays out

pretty much the same on indexes, too messy for me this morning waiting for clearer set ups

edit : no trade today except a few scalps, AUD should make a decent bounce from the 7020/6980 zone but I will be sleeping during gdp release so I will see that tomorrow

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  #7 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

hello

finally I was up for the aud trade,
long at 0.7006, scaled out 1/4 at asian session high for 27 pips, main target is 7047, if reached it could run higher after a pull back

for european session 1.1220 seems interesting on euro for longs if it gets there

edit : 0.7047 hit I took 1/2 off for 41 pips, should pullback from here or from 0.7067 area
stopped at breakeven on the remaining 1/4


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  #8 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

hello

first trade of the day : long euro at 1.1220 as it is the buying zone I have in mind for the last 2 days,
only 1/2 size as I rather be careful on a draghi day
1 st target is at 1.1247 but could be adjusted depending on price action around PMI in few minutes

edit : action is so slow...I took off 1/2 for 20 pips and will probably cut it all before draghi if it doesn't accelerate

stopped for a 22 pips loss after a little slippage, so more or less a breakeven trade, it was stupid to stay in the trade even with reduced position, I should have cut it before ecb press conference as I planned.

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  #9 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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hello

nfp day, the morning is usually pretty calm
but AU has a capacity to moove until the release, usually up to get smashed if nfp is good and opposite on a nfp miss.
Of course it's a little more complicated, it would be too long to explain but I can assure you there is a part of truth in it,

first trade of the day long AUD at 0.6972

looking at NZDUSD I'm not sure that the pullback from 0.6985 is done yet but it's still a decent set up

took off 1/4 for 7 pips (as usual first target to reduce risk)

next levels on the way up are around 0.6989 and 0.6995 I could adjust it depending on PA

edit : as it doesn't break the 0.6088 level I took off another 1/4 for 15 pips, still targeting 0.6995 area before the NFP release, trade closed for 20 pips at 0.6991 2 minutes before release

NB : as nobody interact I'm not sure if posting graphs is of any interest ?

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  #10 (permalink)
 janbab 
Brugge, Belgium
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker: Gain
Trading: 6E, FGBL, FESX
 
Posts: 20 since Dec 2011
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nikko View Post
NB : as nobody interact I'm not sure if posting graphs is of any interest ?

Of course it's interesting, even it's just for you when you're reviewing your journal.

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  #11 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

hello

first trade of the day/week long EU at 1.1134

took off 1/4 for 10 pips at 1.1144, second target around 1,1158

on a longer term view the 1,12 area is interesting for short if reached

edit : 2nd target hit, took off 1/2 for 24 pips ;
SL is at breakeven, last target is in the 1,1190/1,12 area
closed last 1/4 for 29 pips as today range should hold untill tomorow


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  #12 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

hello

EU and AU are both in resistance zone
EU has the made the moove I expected yesterday overnight. It's the 2nd time since I start this journal that the moove I want to play on monday start later than I thought.
I will have to think about it as monday and friday are always special.

first trade of the day short euro at 1.1214
already took 1/4 of at 1.1181
second target around 1.1160, could be adjusted with PA

will edit later as action is going on right now

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  #13 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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it seems I can't insert a picture editing my first post, so I post it here

took off 1/4 at 1.1175 (+39) as this support is holding for too long
another 1/4 at 1.1160 (+54)
support zone should either be 1160/50 or 1130/20
closed last 1/4 at 1.1176 (+38), even if I think euro could go lower it's not worth keeping this position overnight imo

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  #14 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

starting from today, I'll try to write my analysis every morning as the first step of my trading day

EUR seems to have repeated yesterday the 1st of september's pattern. It's probably going lower but should find temporary support in the 1.1140/1120 area

Analysis of european equities and US ones shows that they could go higher to reinforce this view

AUD is in an inflexion zone (as is NZD) it should pullback from here or a little higher but my medium term analysis have me thinking the correction to the upside is not finished ,
there are big news for the commodities currencies tonight so volatilty should be high and if medium term analysis is right buying a pullback on a miss in employment and/or chinese data could be a good idea

for this morning, plan is to buy EU in the 1140/20 zone if it get there in a way that fits my setups, to play a short term bounce and short AU if a setup appears

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  #15 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

first trade of the day short AUD at 0.7057
took 1/4 off for 14 pips, next target is around 0.7035
took 1/4 off at 7035 (+22), next target is around 7020
closed at 7020 (+37)
could probably go lower after a bounce but maybe not before tonight's news

for now, the analogy between the 1st and 2nd of september and yesterday and today on euro is almost perfect : low around london open, rally up to 11 am and it gets smashed down like on the 09/02.
I wasn't planning nor able to enter short but I think I'd rather wait to short a bounce from the 1140/1120 area if it happens than buy it.

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  #16 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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AUD/USD
mooves are in line with yesterday analysis, if the correction higher is not done yet the low made with unemployment data must hold, if it breaks it should means that the downtrend has already resume from yesterday high.

EUR/USD
I was expecting a bounce from the 1.1140/20 area but not that strong. The volatilty of indexes and their strong correlation with euro make the mooves of the later harder to read. After yesterday rally It seems it could go to 1.1280/1.13 area but picture is unclear for now

My initial plan to buy that zone yesterday was good but I decided to not trade during the london/ny overlap for a few weeks because my stats suggest I'll be better off that way or that I should at least be super selective with set ups during this period so I'll try to stick to this

INDEXES
I just can't get a grasp of what they are doing, I may not be the only one, staying aside for now is the safe way to go imo

Plan for this morning is to buy AUD around 0.6975 if it get there and in a way that fits my set ups and to stay aside on euro until the image gets clearer.

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  #17 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

first trade of the day:
long EU at 1.1191, only 1/2 size as picture is not perfect
first target around 1.1205: hit for 14 pips, took 1/4 off
2nd target around 1.1214 to be adjusted with PA
stopped out for 11 pips


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  #18 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

2nd trade of the day :

long EU at 1.1175
took 1/4 off for 25, SL at breakeven
2nd target is 1.1211
plan is to cover 1/2 if it get there and let the last 1/4 run

2nd target hit (+36)
closed last 1/4 at 1.1270 for 95 pips.

will look for short between 1.1275 and 1.1310


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  #19 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

EUR/USD
EU is in a resistance zone 1.1280/1.1310 from where it could turn lower, it's short only for me from here.

AUD/USD
AU is nearing resistance zone 7123/7165 and it could end the correction higher of the last days around those levels.

With both pairs in or near resistance zone and dollar index (not ice) nearing support zone, I think there is an opportunity to enter short for swing trade ahead of fomc next week.

INDEXES
still too messy for me, I'd rather focus on forex for now

Plan for today and start of next week is to look for short set up on EU and AU on small TF and keep runners for swing targets if market acts accordingly.

1.1325 looks good to fade a potential spyke up

edit : 1.1310 seems to have done the job, i may have been to greedy waiting for 1.1325, anyway I won't rush it now especially on a friday afternoon, waiting for pullback that fits my set up

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  #20 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

With dolllar index in a support zone, I think the start of the week could be dollar long biased but with the much awaited FOMC this week, things could stay unclear until wednesday.

AUD has been rejected from the 7125/65 zone I had in view last week. It could pullback to 7040/20 from there

I was too quick to call a potentiel top on EURO friday, it's in the middle of nowhere for me, my next potential resitance zone is around 1.14

Waiting for set ups to form, keeping in mind that mondays are usually not the clearest day for my way of analysing markets.

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  #21 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

No trade yesterday,
no clear set up and I'm trying to not force things so that's a good thing I managed to do this.

Things are not that much clearer today, the rather muted reaction of dollar yesterday from what I see as a support zone surprised me, will monitor how it evolve today.

AUDUSD
I still believe a correction lower could happen from this 7120/60 zone. could be headed to 7090 today, for medium term, price action could indicate a larger low is forming.

EURUSD
much harder to read than last week, but with dollar at support I would prefer short set up for now

INDEXES
I see the interesting supports lower on dax, cac and stoxx

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  #22 (permalink)
nikko
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
Thanks: 0 given, 1 received

1st trade of the week
long EU at 1,1218
patience pays

scale out 1/4 at 1,1236 for 38, SL at BE
scale out 1/2 at 1,1275 for 57 pips
last target to be adjusted with PA
closed at 1.13 + 82

it could go higher (1.1335/50) but nice trade for intraday


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