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Nikko's journal, forex and european equities


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Nikko's journal, forex and european equities

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  #11 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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hello

first trade of the day/week long EU at 1.1134

took off 1/4 for 10 pips at 1.1144, second target around 1,1158

on a longer term view the 1,12 area is interesting for short if reached

edit : 2nd target hit, took off 1/2 for 24 pips ;
SL is at breakeven, last target is in the 1,1190/1,12 area
closed last 1/4 for 29 pips as today range should hold untill tomorow


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  #12 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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hello

EU and AU are both in resistance zone
EU has the made the moove I expected yesterday overnight. It's the 2nd time since I start this journal that the moove I want to play on monday start later than I thought.
I will have to think about it as monday and friday are always special.

first trade of the day short euro at 1.1214
already took 1/4 of at 1.1181
second target around 1.1160, could be adjusted with PA

will edit later as action is going on right now

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  #13 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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it seems I can't insert a picture editing my first post, so I post it here

took off 1/4 at 1.1175 (+39) as this support is holding for too long
another 1/4 at 1.1160 (+54)
support zone should either be 1160/50 or 1130/20
closed last 1/4 at 1.1176 (+38), even if I think euro could go lower it's not worth keeping this position overnight imo

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  #14 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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starting from today, I'll try to write my analysis every morning as the first step of my trading day

EUR seems to have repeated yesterday the 1st of september's pattern. It's probably going lower but should find temporary support in the 1.1140/1120 area

Analysis of european equities and US ones shows that they could go higher to reinforce this view

AUD is in an inflexion zone (as is NZD) it should pullback from here or a little higher but my medium term analysis have me thinking the correction to the upside is not finished ,
there are big news for the commodities currencies tonight so volatilty should be high and if medium term analysis is right buying a pullback on a miss in employment and/or chinese data could be a good idea

for this morning, plan is to buy EU in the 1140/20 zone if it get there in a way that fits my setups, to play a short term bounce and short AU if a setup appears

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  #15 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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first trade of the day short AUD at 0.7057
took 1/4 off for 14 pips, next target is around 0.7035
took 1/4 off at 7035 (+22), next target is around 7020
closed at 7020 (+37)
could probably go lower after a bounce but maybe not before tonight's news

for now, the analogy between the 1st and 2nd of september and yesterday and today on euro is almost perfect : low around london open, rally up to 11 am and it gets smashed down like on the 09/02.
I wasn't planning nor able to enter short but I think I'd rather wait to short a bounce from the 1140/1120 area if it happens than buy it.

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  #16 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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AUD/USD
mooves are in line with yesterday analysis, if the correction higher is not done yet the low made with unemployment data must hold, if it breaks it should means that the downtrend has already resume from yesterday high.

EUR/USD
I was expecting a bounce from the 1.1140/20 area but not that strong. The volatilty of indexes and their strong correlation with euro make the mooves of the later harder to read. After yesterday rally It seems it could go to 1.1280/1.13 area but picture is unclear for now

My initial plan to buy that zone yesterday was good but I decided to not trade during the london/ny overlap for a few weeks because my stats suggest I'll be better off that way or that I should at least be super selective with set ups during this period so I'll try to stick to this

INDEXES
I just can't get a grasp of what they are doing, I may not be the only one, staying aside for now is the safe way to go imo

Plan for this morning is to buy AUD around 0.6975 if it get there and in a way that fits my set ups and to stay aside on euro until the image gets clearer.

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  #17 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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first trade of the day:
long EU at 1.1191, only 1/2 size as picture is not perfect
first target around 1.1205: hit for 14 pips, took 1/4 off
2nd target around 1.1214 to be adjusted with PA
stopped out for 11 pips


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  #18 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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2nd trade of the day :

long EU at 1.1175
took 1/4 off for 25, SL at breakeven
2nd target is 1.1211
plan is to cover 1/2 if it get there and let the last 1/4 run

2nd target hit (+36)
closed last 1/4 at 1.1270 for 95 pips.

will look for short between 1.1275 and 1.1310


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  #19 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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EUR/USD
EU is in a resistance zone 1.1280/1.1310 from where it could turn lower, it's short only for me from here.

AUD/USD
AU is nearing resistance zone 7123/7165 and it could end the correction higher of the last days around those levels.

With both pairs in or near resistance zone and dollar index (not ice) nearing support zone, I think there is an opportunity to enter short for swing trade ahead of fomc next week.

INDEXES
still too messy for me, I'd rather focus on forex for now

Plan for today and start of next week is to look for short set up on EU and AU on small TF and keep runners for swing targets if market acts accordingly.

1.1325 looks good to fade a potential spyke up

edit : 1.1310 seems to have done the job, i may have been to greedy waiting for 1.1325, anyway I won't rush it now especially on a friday afternoon, waiting for pullback that fits my set up

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  #20 (permalink)
paris/france
 
 
Posts: 23 since Feb 2014
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With dolllar index in a support zone, I think the start of the week could be dollar long biased but with the much awaited FOMC this week, things could stay unclear until wednesday.

AUD has been rejected from the 7125/65 zone I had in view last week. It could pullback to 7040/20 from there

I was too quick to call a potentiel top on EURO friday, it's in the middle of nowhere for me, my next potential resitance zone is around 1.14

Waiting for set ups to form, keeping in mind that mondays are usually not the clearest day for my way of analysing markets.

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