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Sumatra's Trading Journal
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Sumatra's Trading Journal

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Sumatra's Trading Journal

First time here, but I guess, it's quite a nice opportunity to publish some technical analysis and trading daily plans here.

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Support on the currency pair is seen at former resistance now support at 1.1466. Resistance is Monday’s highs at 1.1710. Momentum remains positive with the MACD printing in the black with an upward sloping trajectory.

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The uptrend will turn down if price breaks support at 1.5675. The closest decline target in this case will be found at 1.5605.

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With all of the volatility in the market at the moment, we actually prefer to be at the sidelines waiting for someone to make the decision as to which direction we go, and then we will simply follow. This is a very dangerous currency pair to be involved in at the moment.

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Quite frankly, if we can break down below the 1.54 level, we would be sellers and aiming for the 1.52 handle. On the other hand, if we get any type of bounce back above the 1.55 handle, we feel that you have to continue to start buying the British pound overall as it should be a continuation of the uptrend.

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Any movements below the support trend line will signal further movements below to the next support trend line. As a precaution measure, before you sell the pair below the support trend line, ensure that the US dollar index is showing a clear buy signal and is trading above 96.13. The two are highly negatively correlated.

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As long as the pair trades below the 23.6% fib level, short positions are recommended but with a stop at 0.0% fib level, or the support level 1.5369. Any clear movements below this level will signal further movements below.

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For the next week

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It looks as if the sellers came into the marketplace and really punish the Euro towards the end of the week. In fact, we even managed to drop below the 1.12 level, which is a very negative sign. Overall, this is a marketplace that is far too volatile for longer-term traders to be involved in.

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The GBP/USD pair fell significantly during the session on Friday, but found enough support to turn things back around and form a hammer. The hammer signifies that perhaps we could bounce from here but keep in mind that we are below a significant uptrend line that has been supporting this market as the entire summer. With this, we think that this rally will more.

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