Puked my real $$ short swing trades. This rally is tooo strong. I lost 56 points per contract plus shares of spxu. That hurt. I've had no luck this year. I had some setups that wanted to be short ( I went with them ) and one that wanted to be long. I chose the wrong one!
That's been my problem over the last 6 months. One system went into a drawdown ( taking my money with it ). The other systems that I had stopped using did great and they have a better long term track record. After I lost money using the system in drawdown I decided to play it conservative and go back to the higher probability system. Just at the wrong time!
On top of losing a lot of money my confidence is shaken. I couldn't hold onto the trade until the end and I've always been able to do so. It's a very important part of swing trading. Exiting when the price is most attractive or reached the end of it's run is the wrong time to exit. Loses are reduced by waiting for price to come back to entry.
But the rally is really confounding me. I got short Sunday night on ES and Monday morning on spxu after the strong Friday rally. The Monday rally really surprised me. It did also worry me because there was no retracement in the price action on Friday or Monday. That kind of buying pressure struck fear in me that I've been dealing with all week.
I underestimated the worst case scenario and risk. Really how can anyone assess the risk if anything can happen?
I don't know where to go from here. I have to think about stopping for a while.
Dude you aren't the only one. I feel ya and if you are like me, you'll go over your mistakes and learn from them. This is where most people give up. Somehow I wonder how I keep coming back for more, but for some reason I always find myself playing with the charts the next day. Keep trucking man, let's fail our way to success.
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Edit: Not happy with this position either. Not happy in, not happy out. To deal with this I've exited and place a limit order far enough above where if filled I *think* I can tolerate heat up to near ATH.
My thinking now is that there's no real volume above on the volume ladder. All transactions where during the August plummet. Therefore there are few that got into position at these levels on thoughtful consideration. In fact it's unlikely there are many holders who remain if they had bought during that sell off. In short price could rise quickly back to 2050 area. I'm not betting that's happening ( not going long ) but a fast move to that level would boost my confidence to re-short.
I feel like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. This is Mr. Hyde right now... the one screwing with everything. Dr. Jekyll just runs the systems.