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TimendaGain Trade Journal

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  #101 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Ended last 2 days of week up $200 in DayTrade account. Made money on Thursday, gave it back Friday.

Cash values are in 4th column:

From Sept. 10:




After close Friday, Sept 11


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  #102 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Short bias this morning. Oil down. Overnight rally failed. Cash sold off at the open with oil and rallied back to adxvma where it got a LH and LL..


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  #103 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Have gone nowhere since entry. 1944 seems to be the agreed upon price. Given that there's been no movement does it make sense to stay in the trade? I would not feel compelled to enter here because my thinking is to only enter when price is moving a lot.

I closed the trade here.


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  #104 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Long. We have a chopy day in which my new dvix divergence indicator seems to be flagging well. Therefore I'm long based on the swings and the ergence for a target of a new swing uyp.


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  #105 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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atg.Pairs.Divergence ( avail from elite downloads )

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  #106 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Target on the long was missed by 2 ticks. Price action stalling. Closed the trade and reurned my position to an expression of my short bias: short!


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  #107 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Target missed. Closed trade based on price action hovering around the d-vwap.


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  #108 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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9/10:


9/11


9/14

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  #109 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Late start today. Long bias is confirmed.


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  #110 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Here's where we are on daily chart


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  #111 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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With 1 1/2 hours of trading behind us the POC has established itself in the last 20 minutes at the highs of the day.


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  #112 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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I bought the breakout above the swing high. Why? I just thinik the market is going up ahead of FOMC meeting / interest rate announcement. No other reason. I'll make this a swing trade and only sell it on a signal on the daily chart/end of day.


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  #113 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Exited on a divergence between price and cumulative volume.
I had not decided ahead of time to use such a signal as a reason to exit and my hesitation cost me 4 ticks over just a few seconds.
I should also point out that I failed to maintain the position in accordance with the original plan: to hold this as a swing trade. In that regard this is a failure.


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  #114 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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cash close. My "out of band" trade today worked out pretty well. This was a gut trade based on the events of the week ( FOMC Thursday ). I had been thinking that the market would sell off ahead of the announcement due to fear and then get back in no matter what they do... as long as it's over. But then I started to think that everyone will start thinking that way and try and front run the sell off by starting to accumulate. Buying begets buying and I was one of the begotten ones today.


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  #115 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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9/10:


9/11


9/14


9/15

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  #116 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Late start today. No matter. Two days of FOMC meetings with rate hike decision tomorrow. This event trhows off all technical analysis and I'm wary of any trading decisions. With that said, I DO have a resting order to go long on my real accounts near yesterday"s lows
markets mixed now>>>


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  #117 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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ONH set on 9/9 was 1982.50. One tick away...


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  #118 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Broke through it. Only remaining resistence is 1983.25 set on 8/28...


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  #119 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Looking for a breakdown on heavy volume after retracement to VPOC. Hole in the volume ladder below. Some correlated markets not supportive of the ES. Profit taking. FOMC fear.


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  #120 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Revised target


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  #121 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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VIXY has been climbing steadily since 11:30am.

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  #122 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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closed the trade. The volume ladder fill was not happening fast enough for me. wanted to caputre the 5 ticks.


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  #123 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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For once a SMART impatient decision. ( at least for now )


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  #124 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Good morning on this historic FOMC rate descision day. ( 2:00 pm et ).
Highly correlated and inversally correlated markets back up the case for sideways chop until the decision:



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  #125 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Scalped a little bit today on a 3rd sim account. Scalping is not something I expect to be as profitable as my other trading but I thought I'd try a little and track it separately:
plus $125

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  #126 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Before the opening bell... Sold off about 1% overnight. I haven't been able to find a particular reason in the press or from looking at correlated markets. My systematic swing systems are short and the reason for that is no secret to me. The weakness in the technical indicatorss is enough for me to have a short bias for the day. I will look to day trade to the short side.


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 TheTradeSlinger 
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timendaGain View Post
Before the opening bell... Sold off about 1% overnight. I haven't been able to find a particular reason in the press or from looking at correlated markets.

I enjoy reading your journal and updates @timendaGain.

Trust your techs.

KEWLTECH: Issue 012 - News Trader

KEWLTECH: Issue 013 - Trading The News

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  #128 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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60 min returns of correlated markets. All down together overnight.


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  #129 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 SPX, -1.05% has declined in the week following September options expiration 21 times, with a median loss of 1.3%. S&P 500 futures were down 1% ahead of Friday's open.
Quadruple witching kicks off seasonally weak period for stock market - MarketWatch

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 timendaGain 
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Trying a short here on the failure to take out the VPOC.



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  #131 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Flipped long after taking out VPOC


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  #132 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Euro weakness. Yen strength. Bonds fail to take out highs. all bullish.


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 timendaGain 
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Missed my chance to sell. Holding on.


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  #134 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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correlated markets continue to support long side.


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 timendaGain 
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I had to close the trade with 4 tick profit. I realised that all of the long correlations I'm quoting are in fact short teram bounce from the medium term downtrend. My bias fo the day is to the short side. Any longs I take must be exited quickly. I missed my chance. The target was based on a 5 day rolling volume ladder. You can see the histogram for that on the right hand side. Target was just under the volume build.

The VPOC and D-VWAP may indeed act as support for a rally but we are well under teh W-VWP.


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  #136 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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At least my automated trading systems have things right...


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 timendaGain 
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Longest term I look at is daily. You can see that the uptrend is in fact intact. However, I use the 200 ma on this chart to discriminate long/short bias. Over the long haul it's trust worthy. Consequently my acceptance of my judgement of this uptrend is taken with 2 grains of salt and 20 grams of scotch.


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 timendaGain 
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Corrleated markets continue to support a turn around in bias from overnight short to cash session long. ( with the exeption of oil )


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  #139 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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One way for me to resolve my conflict over long or short bias is to declare it NEITHER and instead declare it to be a choppy day. Price action so far suggests it to me.


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  #140 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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If it's a choppy day or a down trend day I win on this short...



I just wish I had confirmation fron the VIX. No red dot... not even a red bar...


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  #141 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Moved my target lower. RE: If it's a choppy day OR resumes the downtrend then it's a reasonable target. Otherwise I'm scalping and if I'm scalping then I should be taking a lot more entries.


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  #142 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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trade is working. moved my stop.


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 timendaGain 
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Closed the trade. Perhaps I have to learn to hang on longer... especially if going with the trend down but you know how it feels to loose profit... it just happened to me this morning.


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 timendaGain 
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Original target was better. Which leason is right, exit before target hit or wait for target? Don't know. I think a little of both. 1. Selection of target is based on what is known at etry time. Maybe moving it based on some evoloving criteria is a good idea and it's just a matter of developing this. Or a better refined first guess and leave it is what's needed. I know this is a weak area for me. Look at all that profit I missed....


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 timendaGain 
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All correlations quietly rolling over last 1/2 hour. Also ctick rolling over and 2 VIX short diversions occurred.

VIX has rallied (red bars and dots ) more than SPY ( chart ) has fallen.




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 timendaGain 
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Back down to the VPOC. Will not go long until we make new lows.


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 timendaGain 
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Not all of my trading is on SIM. However I usually trade with more size and often on the ES than I am currently. I am short on live accounts since last night. I missed some limit fills but I got something at least...

Nothing on the ES where I usually trade. I'll get back into the swing of it soon.

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  #148 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Short on meltdown bounce. Looking for new lows.


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 timendaGain 
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If I were flat I would enter here. If I were trading 2 lots with one to spare I would add here. ( I will be trading with more lots after I get 1 lot trading down pat ).


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  #150 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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So far so good. Now the question is cover or keep the original target? Last trade keeping the original target ( and then some ! ) would have been better. Previous trade this morning it was better to esxit before. Hmm.

Given the discomfort of staying in a losing trade I find myself looking for reasons to exit. That rDiv line between the previous swing down and the current one is a divergence that I belief to hold significance in flagging a bottom. The only problem with it is finding when the current swing down actually ends!

Edit: I'm going to hold. I think we'll hear a flushing sound soon.


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 timendaGain 
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If I had more than one lot I would be looking to take some off in this area noting the congenstion on the 5 day ladder.


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  #152 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Not the best exit. I moved my stop down to be just above the previous bar high. All in all a good trade though!


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  #153 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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9/10:


9/11


9/14


9/15


9/18

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  #154 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Good morning. It's risk on Monday. All correlated markets in support of an elevated S

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 timendaGain 
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A look at were the E-mini S

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 timendaGain 
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I'm rethinking my long bias. Looking at how the market closed on Friday. Last week's w-vwap (RTH) @ 1967. D-vwap, vpoc, adxvma(50) converging in teh 54 - 57 area. Presently pre-market price is 56.75.


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 timendaGain 
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Trying a short here. So far not working.


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 timendaGain 
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Also trying to use 2 lots now...


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 timendaGain 
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Closed both trades for ~4 point loss per contract. Beginning to look like a choppy day with up skew. I was looking for a reversal down. godd!


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 timendaGain 
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This is the last stand for my short bias..


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 timendaGain 
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Closed one tick loss. The premise for the entry was a stall in price appreciation after a fast runup. I was looking for a quick retracemetn. Instead price is consolidating here. Out for 1 tick loss. edit: perhaps a moment too soon.


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 timendaGain 
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Resting order to go long in the ~62 area. Note this was my target for 1lot short. Why did I not keep the short with this target - if I'm resting an order to go long at that level? I'm not confident that it will fall to that level but if it does I have more confidence that it will rebound.

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 timendaGain 
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Ouch.
I would have been better off being more patient with the previous short trade.


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 timendaGain 
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Terrible day. Clearly picking a spot to enter with a resting order and walking away from the computer eliminated any opportunity to manage the trade. I'm not sure how I would have handled the trade though. The market provided no opportunity to exit ( no bounce ) right through to the stop loss. Should I make my stops wider so that their purpose is to handle a black swan type event or loss of connection? Clearly I have to do something different.

IF I had been patient in the short trade this would not have happened.
IF I had waited for the market to rebound this would not have happened.
IF I followed my rules for identifying a short bias and only trading in that direction this would not have happened.

IF I continue to construct excuses for failing after the fact rather than maintain discipline before and during the trade I will never succeed.

One thing that worries me on an ongoing basis:
Suppose my ideas about what I should be doing are in fact incorrect and will cause me to loose money in the long run. In other words, If for example I did stay short today and made money, I would not be re-thinking my actions. Same thing if the market went up while I had my long position. Either way the market confirms my action and rewards me. But is what I did and the basis for doing it giving me a lasting edge?

I've written automatic trading systems that work well for 6 months and then fail. How does one know if their own rules are going to do that to them?

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 timendaGain 
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Clearly a seller controlled auction today. The reasons given for the selloff don't make sense to me. Asia finished up. Europe is being blamed for the decline with emphasis on VW for the auto emissions scandal. Aslo blamed is the uncertainty over US interest rates. I dismiss both as reasons because the interest rate issue was known last week and the auto scnadal doesn't eem to me to be enough of a reason for a broad decline. But broad decline is what we have....


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 timendaGain 
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As I said... broad decline is what we have.... with the exception of the Euro Dollar... down in value ( blue line inverted ) which is bullish for US stock. ?


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 timendaGain 
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short on run up to overnight v-wap on ETH template.


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 timendaGain 
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Flipped long. Don't have a really good reason other than market lookes like it's holding.


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 TheTradeSlinger 
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Why are you flip-flopping intra day with such huge stops and targets?

That can only lead to getting chopped up hard.

Trust your read and go with it @timendaGain.

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 timendaGain 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
Why are you flip-flopping intra day with such huge stops and targets?

That can only lead to getting chopped up hard.

Trust your read and go with it @timendaGain.

I feel I have made a mistake today. But it's not that I flipped or that my stop or target are where they are. Instead it's that I did not follow any setup that I defined ahead of time. According to my plan I'm not supposed to use the ETH. But I did and used the d-vwap on it to find a place to short. Then after I was in the trade I decided that the bottom had been put in... just because I saw the TICK moving steadily higher. Ridiculous. The results of this trade will be useless in my goal of building a reliable method. I guess I'm still in the exploratory phase of my development. I have to go through this so that I'll reference points in my history as what works and what doesn't.
Thank you for your comments.

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 timendaGain 
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No help from the VIX. ... no strong divergences.


However, correlated markets showing small signs of trying to pull the ES higher.


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 timendaGain 
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I've been long since 10:30. I had flipped short again at that time and upon having to confront acceptance of this ridiculous behavior of flipping indiscriminately decided to remedy it by flipping AGAIN !!!
I haven't posted until now out of embarrassment. If I ever succeed at trading it will be from the lowest of levels. I have a long journey ahead of me.
edit: and I have no stops!


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 timendaGain 
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Finally I did something sane. The rally against all odds stalled just under the hod ( cash ).. Took profit.
:

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 timendaGain 
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Late start today. Trying a short on the bounce.


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 timendaGain 
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vix via vixy etf ( sub panel ) making new session lows...


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 timendaGain 
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The DayTrade2 account... I didn't write about this in my journal but starting this week I'm re-purposing this account to use 2 lots and to possibly hold overnight. The original experiment was to take the opposite side of the DayTrade account. Since that experiment more or less proved that it does indeed accumulate in a recipercal pattern to DayTrade I decided it's not worth tracking.
Below is DayTrade2 with 2 lots. 1st one was put on same time as DayTrade1 @ 1925. Avg is now 1928.75...


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 timendaGain 
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9/11


9/14


9/15


9/18


9/23

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 timendaGain 
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I'm watching my two lot system start to work. And as I do I watch the $TICK dropping now.



That encouraged me to move my target for the 2nd lot to be lower...



I have it positioned at 1925.25 ... a level chosen based on the volume ladder... but this also happens to be the entry for lot one ( 1925 ).

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 timendaGain 
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I can't stand it when a target is missed by a tick or two. So I exited lot#2 for 5 points... edit: correction + 4 points.



Edit2: Actually the target was 2025.25 and my impulse exit was 2028... a far cry from a tick or two difference. Interesting how I try to lie to myself to justify my own impatience.

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 timendaGain 
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Pretty strong bounce off the 1925 level that I entered at. When I say strong bounce I mean that price moved quickly to it from the d-vwap, spent almost no time at 1925 then quickly moved back up to the VPOC at 1927.25. Does that mean that's the bottom? Should I exit my short?
Anyone? Anyone? Bueller. Bueller. Ben Stein? ... "Just buy the SPY". Oh okay.



Drifting back down to 2025. let's see if it bounces again.... so much fun!

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 timendaGain 
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A look at correlated markets this week.
Yen mixed earlier but now pressuring sp500 today.
EuroDollar weakness earlier ( bullish for sp500 ) but strengthing today, pressuring sp500.
10y notes generally higher, pointing to risk off , pressuring sp500
Crude oil down and up and as of late, down, pressuring sp500



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 timendaGain 
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Doji Daily.


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  #183 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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And finally, TED spreads continue to rise:
$TED - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

presaging a decline in SP500.

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 timendaGain 
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VIXY daily. Cup and handle forming preparing for another spike OR continued downtrend?


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  #185 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Still holding my short from 1925. While deciding whether to hold into the ONS I'm at least looking for a better price in the clean up session.

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  #186 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Here's how it's looking. There was a rejections at 1925. It looked decisive when it first happened at 15:07. I should probably look at the volume there as well. Could the bottom be in? Should I go long and hold overnight?


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 TheTradeSlinger 
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timendaGain View Post
VIXY daily. Cup and handle forming preparing for another spike OR continued downtrend?


That's an inverse cup and handle if anything.

Check out:

1. https://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
-patterns

2. https://www.blogger.com/blogin.g?blogspotURL=http://kewltech.blogspot.com/&type=blog
-how to trade

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 timendaGain 
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Here's the "rejection" area with delta volume histogram. No significant volume. Maybe not the significant price level I thought it might be. If volume were high would that really mean something? Should I keep volume on my chart?


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 timendaGain 
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Okay Trade is over. Closed @ 1928.


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  #190 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
That's an inverse cup and handle if anything.

Check out:

1. https://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
-patterns

2. KEWLTECH
-how to trade

Yeah I see what you mean. I was looking at the small dent in price at the end.

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 timendaGain 
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9/11


9/14


9/15


9/18


9/23

end of 9/23...

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 timendaGain 
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Selloff overnight is blamed on European automakers in the wake of the VW scandal.


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  #193 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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I'm simply betting that this selloff is an over reaction and going long here at the open. This is a 10k chart cash session template.


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 timendaGain 
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That long trade turned out to be a mistake. Short is the direction to go in. I just ope I'm not too late...


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 timendaGain 
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Looking better. If I get a chance to add I will.


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 timendaGain 
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I closed the trade based on where we are now on the daily chart...


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  #197 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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re-shorted at d-vwap failure. If break above it I will look to get long.


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  #198 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Actually I feel better about using the d-vwap from the ETH as the indiation to look for a long.


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  #199 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Could push through this level and if it does I don't see much support. Do you?


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  #200 (permalink)
 timendaGain 
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Closed the trade on the rDiv ( diversion between price and delta volume accumulation ). Ignore the pending bracket ofder. I cancelled those. The rDiv could be signalling a bottom. I don't know if I have the guts to go long though.


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