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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #711 (permalink)
 
jackbravo's Avatar
 jackbravo 
SF, CA/USA
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: SC
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Trading: NQ...uh..ES actually
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I tried a few dwing trades in oil and is very tough to guess both the entry level and the stop if you can't watch the screen. Ive noticed that it might be doable if you can base your entries and stops on the 4hr bar, but of course you need higher risk tolerance. Not sure about NG, but maybe check out the 4hr and see if it makes sense

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"It does not matter how slowly you go, as long as you do not stop." Confucius
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  #712 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
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jackbravo View Post
I tried a few dwing trades in oil and is very tough to guess both the entry level and the stop if you can't watch the screen. Ive noticed that it might be doable if you can base your entries and stops on the 4hr bar, but of course you need higher risk tolerance. Not sure about NG, but maybe check out the 4hr and see if it makes sense

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My bias is based on weekly daily and Hourly and all other factors such as Weekly and Monthly VWAP. Once I decides that I can enter with one lot only as I want give room to add if it goes against me. My stop is also based on the location where my thesis would prove wrong. My entries are based on volume chart (Actually doesn't matter which time frame), I prefer price to be bellow daily VWAP and have negative CD. I am very comfortable for counter trend trades with scale in. But with trades with trend and entries near vwap's I have to face whipsaws.

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  #713 (permalink)
 
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 Blash 
Chicago, IL
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Broker: InteractiveBrokers, S5T, IQFeed
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
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bmtrading9 View Post
This damn CL, I couldn't get a read on it so here is my attempt once more

Weekly - Price tried to go down below 5 SMA but couldn't hold below that making it flat so we can say it's in range

Daily - Price is at top of the range, price tried to breakout of month long range but it was curbed down quickly and bought back up with same speed even-though after multiple bad oil reports which tells us some big players are trying to manipulate...god knows who will win it finally.

Hourly - Price tried to go past Last Month's VWAP SD2 but quickly faded and now below $54 but couldn't get past weekly and monthly VWAP.

Bias - Based on above analysis I am leaning towards BULLISH as long as it hold those weekly and monthly VWAP's on HOURLY basis.

Position - NONE (I know I am a chicken )

Just an idea....to try?



Ron

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #714 (permalink)
 
Blash's Avatar
 Blash 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Market Chamois
 
Experience: None
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Broker: InteractiveBrokers, S5T, IQFeed
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One can't watch this too much...it's impossible.



Ron

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote
  #715 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
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Blash View Post
Just an idea....to try?



Ron

Very nice Ron, Thanks alot!!

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  #716 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
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I am not sure if I improved or not here is my January profit distribution. I don't think I take my trading seriously or just lost in too much analysis.

Pros

1. Less number of trades
2. Percentage of profitability
3. Except for few huge losses at the beginning (I have a special reason for those losses which I don't want to reveal as it's not the right way of doing things), in general less losses.

Cons

1. Cutting winners short after all that analysis because of fear.
2. Missing out on easy trades.
3. Still trying to do some counter trend trades.
4. Afraid to increase the size.


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  #717 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
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Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
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This week I did good and bad.

I made

One GOLD (MGC) short @1243 area and it immediately went in my favor but unfortunately I just one micro contract, I took profits on this one once price crossed above monthly VWAP.

Multiple Natural Gas Trades (NG) - Not bad

I was long oil at 52.50 knowing that I am trying to catch falling knife but planned to add multiple contracts but had to get out before the report at 52.85 (Hindsight, I am a fool...).

Now, I am short oil at 53.05, again planning to add at levels, if this grinds in here I have to take the loss. Reason for the short is monthly vwap, I was blindsided by oil report overnight but it didn't hit my disaster stop, this is exactly the reason why I have a scale in strategy and this is the exact reason I hate trading near VWAP's.

My BIGGEST issue RIGHT NOW is

Position size and how to handle this?

I want trade two contracts but If afraid with my swing trading nature I might get hurt. I feel I am not going anywhere. I don't know how to tackle this issue.

Have a great weekend.

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  #718 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
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This freaking Oil making me go nuts...

Luckily I re-covered losses on my short at 53.05 and closed that short at 52.92. I should have closed it at ADR_L at 52.76 but thought it might puke into Europe close and it never did.

Now I am long oil at 52.85 to see if it got any legs to move over 53.20 or this down move will continue. I am having a tight stop at 52.65 (I will try my best not to fiddle with my stop ).

Again this came back to monthly VWAP which is not a good setup to trade.

I have to let go of my fear of shorting indices, I missed an easy SD3 short on mini Russel. I guess it might give me another chance let's see.

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  #719 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
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Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
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bmtrading9 View Post
This freaking Oil making me go nuts...

Luckily I re-covered losses on my short at 53.05 and closed that short at 52.92. I should have closed it at ADR_L at 52.76 but thought it might puke into Europe close and it never did.

Now I am long oil at 52.85 to see if it got any legs to move over 53.20 or this down move will continue. I am having a tight stop at 52.65 (I will try my best not to fiddle with my stop ).

Again this came back to monthly VWAP which is not a good setup to trade.

I have to let go of my fear of shorting indices, I missed an easy SD3 short on mini Russel. I guess it might give me another chance let's see.

Out of oil at 53.55 instead of my target of 53.85...the way this oil is moving I don't want to loose profits.

Long NG at 2.910.

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  #720 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
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Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
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Still in this NG trade looking for fill the gap on the upside. Shouldaaa couldaaa added this morning as nothing changed in the analysis but it looks my brain is not ready for that. I still can add above VWAP on NG and hope but this morning would have been better entry.

This oil is behaving differently these days and I generally don't trade report so I don't have any position in it. My hand is itching to short indices via mini Russel but damn can't pull the trigger.

Edit: Closed that NG long not liking the order flow will wait for reentry at better prices...Shorted TF at 1395.50

Edit: LOL, looks like they were just looking for me to short it so that they can rip it...this is exact reason why I hate trading indices.

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Last Updated on January 6, 2021


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