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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #691 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

This freaking frustrates, when you long term view unfolds right in-front but you took a loss on that trade just a day before.

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  #692 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Excellent one from @tigertrader It applies to whatever time frame you are trading.

If a trader takes a random approach to the market, he will make random trades, have random luck, and random results. he is simply making binary bets and doesn't have a thesis to support his decision, nor the feedback necessary to either confirm or refute his bias. The trade starts going against him and he panics and gets out, or the trade starts going his way and he panics and gets out. There's nothing to tell him if he should stay or if he should go. If a trader understands what is happening in the market and why the trade is working or not working, then he has a much better chance of exploiting the trade. If he continues to receive the same feedback he had before he initiated the trade, while he's in the trade, he has a much better chance of optimizing the trade. There has to be a reason based approach, otherwise you're just gambling. If you're gambling then you are a willing loser who occasionally wins, because you are playing a game with a negative*expectancy. A trader on the other hand, is a willing winner who occasionally loses, because he is playing a game with a positive expectancy. Traders trade to make money, but sometimes pay the price for the risk they incur. A gambler may think he is out to make money, but his reward is usually non-monetary.

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  #693 (permalink)
 DRock306 
Saskatchewan
 
Experience: Beginner
Platform: Ninjatrader
Broker: TST / Rithmic
Trading: CL
Posts: 959 since Apr 2014
Thanks Given: 2,629
Thanks Received: 1,710



bmtrading9 View Post
Excellent one from @tigertrader It applies to whatever time frame you are trading.

If a trader takes a random approach to the market, he will make random trades, have random luck, and random results. he is simply making binary bets and doesn't have a thesis to support his decision, nor the feedback necessary to either confirm or refute his bias. The trade starts going against him and he panics and gets out, or the trade starts going his way and he panics and gets out. There's nothing to tell him if he should stay or if he should go. If a trader understands what is happening in the market and why the trade is working or not working, then he has a much better chance of exploiting the trade. If he continues to receive the same feedback he had before he initiated the trade, while he's in the trade, he has a much better chance of optimizing the trade. There has to be a reason based approach, otherwise you're just gambling. If you're gambling then you are a willing loser who occasionally wins, because you are playing a game with a negative*expectancy. A trader on the other hand, is a willing winner who occasionally loses, because he is playing a game with a positive expectancy. Traders trade to make money, but sometimes pay the price for the risk they incur. A gambler may think he is out to make money, but his reward is usually non-monetary.

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Thats a pretty accurate quote, i like it.

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  #694 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Another very good one from twitter universe

Many Traders miss huge winners due to fear of being wrong. Losses happen in trading. Use stops & position sizing. Can't win w/o a position

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  #695 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Monthly & Weekly- Bullish Overbought but price reversed at trend line as expected




Weekly - {Two weeks back prediction}, Overbought Bullish with Inverted Head and Shoulder but declining buying interest. If Inverted H&S materializes we can see 60 as first price target else it can come back to 50.
This week price bounced at the tag of Weekly 10 EMA we need to see follow through if we want to call this as new bearish trend.



{Two weeks back analysis} Daily - Bullish Trend - Tried to break the bullish trend couple of times but buyers got it back up to the range. Resistance at 54.20 and support at 53.60 and 53.20 it's hard to predict the price.

{This week} Daily - Bearish Trend - Touched weekly S1 and reversed hard as expected for re-touch of MA's so buyers don't want to give up on this yet so trying to make it as RANGE.




{Two weeks back analysis} 15 min - Slightly Bearish Trend - If this bearish trend continues we can see 53.20 quickly.

{This week} - After boucing back to range price failed to reach upper end of the range i.e 54.20 and 55.20 and now it seems price wants to resume bearish direction but found support at Weekly VWAP multiple times.




My plan

Short Trades

I have to assume price will resume it's BEARISH trend once it breaks weekly VWAP but first break or touch will always be proctected so be caustioius and don't jump yet. Place short positions in anticipation of trend contiuation at key levels.

Long Trades

Since buyers defended weekly VWAP multiple times if we trend change then jump into long trades at levels. I am bearish because Monthly/Weekly/Daily chars looks bearish.

I know I sound confusing but that's the way it is for me.

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  #696 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

This is worst case scenario of counter trend trading and I am trying to avoid this situation in my swing trading but it is within my loss tolerance levels. I had to leave the trade open because of tornado siren and didn't enter properly. If I can avoid this kind of counter trend trading then I would do wonders...Even-though I am 100% profitable and about 4K profit in three days but draw down is huge and in real time it will take toll on your mind and makes you to exit at worst possible scenario.


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  #697 (permalink)
 
Blash's Avatar
 Blash 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Market Chamois
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS
Broker: InteractiveBrokers, S5T, IQFeed
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
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Thanks Received: 4,518


bmtrading9 View Post

I know I sound confusing but that's the way it is for me.


To me, on the contrary, it sounds like good old fashioned hard work.

I have learned a few things from Peter Brandt about swings and you seems from your analysis to be using head and shoulders etc the very type of analysis Peter does. Peter is an icon in this industry and wrote the foreword for The Little Book of Market Wizard....



Here is his site if it might interest you....
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/

I get his emails and it's IMHO always solid analysis. Not necessarily the instruments I trade but has great value even so.

Ron



Sent from my iPhone using futures.io

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
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  #698 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159




Based on my short thesis

1. I wanted to take short at Last week hight but price didn't reach there and missed 53.52 area also

2. Shorted at 52.90 based on monthly vwap band (Random line but decent one)

3. Price moved in my favor initially and held below 53

4. Price dropped after Europe open and didn't want to loose 110 ticks on CL (Of course, I traded QM for mental peace), some 60 ticks aheard of target because I thought at PIT open price will bounce and can reshort but that never happned so coverd 60 ticks earlier to see price hit my target to the tick and reversed.

I missed intraday trades long and short because of meetings.

Key thing is to know when to press and when not to press...anyway one good trade this year so wanted to share.

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  #699 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Expanding my trading to three other instruments i.e Natural Gas via QG, Gold via MicroGC or mini Gold (YG) and Mini Russel (TF).

I know what people say about it..WTF! he CAN'T even trade one instrument properly now he wants to trade FOUR

My biggest issue has been time and position sizing. For time issue swing trading and for position size issue mini instruments because of overnight holding margins are I can with stand (QM - $2700, QG-$1000, MGC- $600 and TF - $4500 (I recently learned ICE reduced tick size to half so now it's ok for me). Except for Natural gas I traded all other markets before.

Reason is if I miss a setup for whatever reason I am waiting, waiting, waiting more and getting frustrated and doing a dumb mistake.

Gold trade

Shorted GC at 1213 and exited at 1204 after three days because that damn thing doesn't want to sell off and now shorts have to give up and that's what happening right now.

Natural gas

Long at 3.30 since yesterday and it move initial against and came back and moving again...I have to be patient with this one and must be ready to add if it goes down.

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  #700 (permalink)
 
Blash's Avatar
 Blash 
Chicago, IL
Legendary Market Chamois
 
Experience: None
Platform: NT8,NT7,TWS
Broker: InteractiveBrokers, S5T, IQFeed
Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,311 since Nov 2011
Thanks Given: 7,341
Thanks Received: 4,518



bmtrading9 View Post
Expanding my trading to three other instruments i.e Natural Gas via QG, Gold via MicroGC or mini Gold (YG) and Mini Russel (TF).



I know what people say about it..WTF! he CAN'T even trade one instrument properly now he wants to trade FOUR



My biggest issue has been time and position sizing. For time issue swing trading and for position size issue mini instruments because of overnight holding margins are I can with stand (QM - $2700, QG-$1000, MGC- $600 and TF - $4500 (I recently learned ICE reduced tick size to half so now it's ok for me). Except for Natural gas I traded all other markets before.



Reason is if I miss a setup for whatever reason I am waiting, waiting, waiting more and getting frustrated and doing a dumb mistake.



Gold trade



Shorted GC at 1213 and exited at 1204 after three days because that damn thing doesn't want to sell off and now shorts have to give up and that's what happening right now.



Natural gas



Long at 3.30 since yesterday and it move initial against and came back and moving again...I have to be patient with this one and must be ready to add if it goes down.



As you well know hence your above post, I'm just emphasizing it yet again.... don't listen to anyone but the cowboy.... you!

I salute you my friend.

Ron


Sent from my iPhone using futures.io

...My calamity is My providence, outwardly it is fire and vengeance, but inwardly it is light and mercy...
The steed of this Valley is pain; and if there be no pain this journey will never end.
Buy Low And Sell High (read left to right or right to left....lol)
Follow me on Twitter Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal Reply With Quote




Last Updated on January 6, 2021


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