Good post. Glad you did it.

So, would you like to dissect it with me?

Good:
-If it were a larger sample, I imagine you would have a ~50% profitable which is really good!
-You hold your trades for a decent amount of time (not in and out in <1 minute etc.)
-You have good account management; you are in a 50k combine but only using 3 lots per trade.

Bad:
-Your average loss duration is equal to that of a win
-Your winning days are small
-You have large down days
-Your largest winning day averaged ~3 ticks per contract traded
-Your largest losing day averaged ~5 ticks per contract traded
-You trade far more on losing days than on winning days


What can we conclude from this?

-You have a high enough profitablity rate on a daily level to be profitable.
-You need to let your winners do their job! You cut your winners short which is hindering your profitablity.
-You need to recognize when you are letting emotion dictate your trades rather than logic/rational thinking.

All in all, I think that if you would let your winning trades pay you more, you would be a profitable trader. Find out what is causing your loss days to be as large as they are and fix that.

When you "predict" the direction of the market, why not let it work for you?

Hope this helps!

@bobwest I have question about combine since you are the go to guy regarding combines...is that $1000 loss rule for intra-day or eod? I am assuming at any given point of the trading day your loss shouldn't exceed more than $1000 right? Because based on this rule I have to trade differently for this combine.

You're correct. If the daily loss hits your Daily Loss Limit ($1,000 for a 50K Combine) any time during the day, including during an open trade, then you're done. So long as it never does, then the next day you've got another 1,000 for that day, etc.

There's also the Trailing Max Drawdown (2,000 for a 50K), which is EOD. That's the max you can lose in total, from your account's highest point. So you can dip below it during the day, but if you move back up before the EOD you are OK. They are different, and that can be confusing.

(Also, since it is the max from your highest point, it trails upward as you make new profit highs, until it has trailed up to the initial 50K balance, where it stops trailing. Example: you start out with an account balance of 50,000, and your maximum drawdown balance = 48,000. If your account balance goes to 50,500, then your Maximum Drawdown level becomes 48,500. But it won't go above 50,000.)

If that part about Max Drawdown wasn't clear, let me know. But you are right about the daily limit being any time during the day.

Bob.

Damn!, then I have to trade with one or max two contracts on this CL, that makes it very difficult for holding for longer periods for 50 or 70 ticks...One more question can we hold contracts into some events such as oil report? I am pretty sure we can but just wanted to confirm.

Combine traders do not need to be flat during any releases.

Damn!, then I have to trade with one or max two contracts on this CL, that makes it very difficult for holding for longer periods for 50 or 70 ticks...One more question can we hold contracts into some events such as oil report? I am pretty sure we can but just wanted to confirm.

I've wondered if the best way to pass a combine would be to make your daily income, then risk it every day. If I understand correctly, there is no time limit to pass? So if you stay break even for a few days or even a couple weeks then nail it on a trend day, your done! Just a thought...

Would definitely be interesting...

I've always wondered if we could connive you into doing a combine yourself

Nope! I couldn't anyway as I'm registered. I've seen so many try these in journals and I believe the loss limit is a major issue but I think with a market like ES, using what's listed in his dashboard above one could fade like 2 contracts off the open and lock in a few points income then come back on with 3 on a trade such as a VWAP retrace or OR top/bottom fade and just let it ride.