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Wow! this is what I don't like when I sold my positions and that seems to be good idea in short term but some Central banker intervenes and market gaps 200 points, seems same story is repeating...what do you guys do in these situations? How do you say this is a real sustainable trend change? Will you be buying dips like before?
Now the big UNCERTAINTY is can I switch back to bigger time-frame? maybe not, because day range is still more than 300 points on YM, maybe this whole year will be like this until some very CONCRETE push from central bankers like QE and (or) confirmation that no rate hikes etc.
I think this weeks close is very important. Breadth started to increase so ideally for me to consider change in bigger picture would be create a divergence by making new low, will they let it happen that's a big question...
Have a nice and safe weekend...cannot complain had good week left out bulk of oil move because of my over thinking, maybe right because that's how market has been lately.
Previous week analysis, I will divide my trades into three sections for easier analysis
Part-1
Method - Sell at ADR_H, if I missed it wait for confirmation using divergence on SMI on 25 min char
Execution -
ADR_H was at 16160 area...price touched exactly 16160 and moved down but I missed the trade since we are
in a down trend I thought it is fine to jump in the trade at 16110 or so without waiting of confirmation.
Price started to move immediatly against me so I waited and added another contract at 16140 now I have two contract
with average of 16130 and I put a stop of 100 point stop and guess what my stop hit and price immediatly reversed.
I realized price immediatly reversed after stopping me out so I entered short again at 16179 with trailing stop of 100 points
but covered it at 16144 because that fear of earlier loss is lingering in my mind I want to minimize the earlier loss
Guess what all the hell break loose after I covered, would have been nice 500 point gain on that short.
Execution- Again same mistakes as above, didn't wait for confirmation then tried chasing and
finally decided to hold at 15400 saying to myself...market already dropped 500 points and I will have my stop at another ADR i.e 400 points and asked myself how many times DOW dropped 900 points in a day just maybe two days and
somehow it worked. Again at the end saw oil breaking out and bought YM and sold for another 100 points
Biggest mistake was to sold oil even though I bought it for long term swing trade...
So in summary good week for could have been all-time record week.
This week I have to see what kind of method I can use. I have to admit I am afraid of shorting because of my previous experiences but I am also aware this time is different.
Market is confused, I am confused and feared of giving up of profits...I should have been up by a nice sum from my short instead ended up with a loss of 20 YM points. Still debating to buy crude or wait? May be I will try to buy crude at 29.40 because this is catching a falling knife.
My long got stopped out last night and dumped but don't know why market did a Vcovery, one thing is clear I need to get my head straight and stop over trading unless a clear opportunity presents it self...this kind of Vcovery makes me to automate my process (working on that).
So market stops me out of my long and went up straight 15640 to 16090. I am short from 16040 with stop, if I get stopped out that's it done for week. Don't want give back too much in one week
