Still holding TF short (still have 1360 as target) and it's not an easy task...I don't know how @tigertrader does it.
Mean while collected 100 ticks on CL short, that was a surprise move.
Current positions TF short and ZN long.
Edit: Crap, it boils down to which to hold and when to hold and when to fold OIL I would have got another 40 ticks, now I am sure it will reach my target area. TF bounced since I am holding it.
Just a reminder:
Keep in mind that we are approaching the date of the Russell's return to the CME.
So in general the days around that might get a bit rough for the asset.
Hoping ZN to explode higher hence added on to my long position with average of 125`02. Since I don't know how to trade TF before the CME switch I added on to my TZA position.
Still holding ZN long and TZA short (might try to enter RTY short). I will be very comfortable if ZN closes above 5SMA on daily basis. Nothing changed on RTY weekly chart but it is taking more time than I expected.
Will see if OIL holds that area if it holds then I will enter for swing long at VAL.
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Very close to being wrong on this but recently I learned that your entry should be very near to where you will be wrong so going to keep this short on TF and see if I can get out without much damage.
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That Oil short close was better, I didn't trade oil as I generally don't trade on oil on report days. On the other hand I still have my mini Russell (TF) short underwater, tested 5SMA yesterday and bounced back, I am getting torn between swing and day trading. One thing I want to do is formulate a BIGGER PICTURE and trade in that direction multiple times. I am doing good job of formulating BIGGER PICTURE but not able to trade (I mean add or remove contracts) in that direction multiple times as I am still not ready to increase size.
These are few swing trades I missed
1. I was in NQ long at 5585 now it's 300 points up, I closed it for 20 points
2. I was again in ES long but closed for 12 points
3. I was in ZN long closed again for small profit when compared to where it is now
4. I was in VIX future trade before that drop but again closed for small profit
5. I am in this TF short, gave multiple opportunities to close for nice profits but didn't took it because I missed the above trades and don't want to miss
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I want to say short oil but when I want to short I want to do it VAH but oil is at VAL but still looking like a short to me. Will see if I can get a chance to short at VPOC or VWAP.
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Ridiculous manipulation in OIL, I got face ripping rally yesterday on my short luckily I held the short but my brain started questioning everything and forcing me to close my position but I closed it as per plan for profit but just to see it went another 40 ticks once I closed my short
I am struck in Dollar long and EURUSD short but I am sure both will be winners just need patience.
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After four weeks of torture TF finally showing signs of weakness but I was not in it except for that TZA position but I took multiple 10 point profits on TF though and will be looking to short but I hate to short in the HOLE...I took a short in ES, hoping it will follow TF, let's see.
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Still holding ES short but when every damn dip is getting bought it's tremendous pressure on mind to hold especially a short for bigger gains. But, if it's not hold then I will succumb to revenge and over trading.
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Initiated dollar long with BE stop. I am kicking myself for not initiating shorts overnight, especially when I placed orders and canceled. I believe selling is not done yet but can't initiate shorts at bottom... Maybe this time different, we will see.
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It took freaking 44 days to reach my target but unfortunately, I am not in this last leg. I am glad I took multiple profits in the mean time so, am I just got lucky or finally getting hold of this swing trading?
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Lost 12 points on TF trying to find bottom. It's close, after-all TF might reach 1360 or IWM (136) as I was telling all month. That 136 on IWM coincides with 200 SMA.
I didn't dare to take long on Friday as I thought it's too risky to carry positions over the weekend especially when price is hovering at 200 SMA and geo political scenario is not good. More over I was very busy with some other things.
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Today is a good day some 32 TF points combined with TF and YM shorts since yesterday.
One thing I realized is not matter how patient I am, my entries are early and sometimes market turns on me up to my puke level but my direction is proving to be right. I am kind of doing top down approach
1. Look for weekly chart and anticipate the trade
2. Look for daily chart
3. Look of 4 hr chart and decide which way I want to go
4. Enter at extremes i.e HVA for shorts and LVA for longs
5. Most importantly be patient and be prepared to add if needed.
Edit: No trades, but I feel market is heavy and ready to go into full BEAR mode (of course, I have been thinking like this for ever and bulls are like oh really! and they BTFD).
As expected OIL bounced at 50 SMA, I wanted to see how this holds so didn't take any trade and IWM is again at 200 SMA, maybe this time it will visit that 134 area.
It didn't reach my level to initiate long but it bounced near last week low and 50 SMA on weekly (I know know...). Now, it is kind of looking like bear flag on daily chart so key levels would be breaking of that 50 SMA and last week's low.
Take FWIW...
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Beauty here but didn't added it here as I wanted more confirmation, in my defense when Yellen and co are speaking it's very hard to take short positions.
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LOL, this is the trillionth time, market is resilient and I keep fighting just to top tick it and to see the reversal. Why why, instead of keeping quite and following the plan why I go with exotic/stupid strategies. Anyway, I am still short the market with TF and ES. I have 100 points in mind so will leave it there (hmm...I might come out with 10 points profits or BE as my mind is pretty much tired of fighting).
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Still bearish but now with manageable size...at one point had 8 contracts short on TF and ES (I know that's stupidity, but who knows suddenly crazy people started buying all 2000 components of Russel relentlessly for 3 days changing characteristics of this index).
KEY is EMOTIONS and EMOTIONS can be controlled by SIZE but NO size NO GAINS, we will be in this circle forever and ever ever
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That's why these days I am having so much trouble in reading OIL, yesterday this OIL was looking like to breakout this weekly triangle and today it's looking like going to breakdown. No real edge in OTF here. It MUST be NEWS, any good NEWS related services?
Weekly
Daily
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They are the cream of the crop. For example, you can even ask them questions if you see a move happening like in CL or whatever market and they will give you their best info relating to perhaps why it is moving like it is. This part is not for educational questions so I was told understandably.
If you are interested email Jessica at Jessica@tradethenews.com she is who I am dealing with. But like I said I have not signed up with them yet and have zero ties to them.
I didn't realize I bought September contract so closed that for small profit. I will analyze and reenter the position later (Generally when I do this I keep missing the trades though...)
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It's been a long time since I posted here in this journal.
ONE MUST ADAPT ELSE WILL DIE IN THIS BUSINESS.
I want to scalp/trade ZB and ES, I have my own reasons for choosing these instruments. I guess every trader must start from there i.e To find out which instrument is RIGHT for your personality and your environment.
With current conditions ES is also bad so I want to eliminate it for trading but unfortunately I can't eliminate it to watch.
I guess my mindset and my personal environment is well suited for SLOW moving instruments.
Today, I started trading ZB but I did overtrade it and still ended up positive on ZB but monkey in my mind traded ES too and it ended up as a loss. So, KEY here is to findout which instrument will respect levels.
Hope everyone is doing fantastic.
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Thanks for remembering Ron, I just saw your message. I will be back soon need to fix few things. I just need one hour of proper time with no distraction for trading and I should be fine. I am working towards getting that one hour of time. Just need to keep it simple as it was mentioned many many times by experts.
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Traded SIM after many months. Still having this runner on YM will get out at ES 2806 or 2810.
This is how I want to trade for one hour and have a runner left. What I realized was need size (Up to 7 contracts...I strongly don't suggest this as I am still experimenting in SIM) to reach daily target once you reached target you will have some wiggle room to leave a runner. I know it's not a pretty picture with many trades but as MLM says who cares bottom line is are you making money or not.
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Thanks Ron! I am in the middle of job and location changes so not able to concentrate on trading but consistently in my mind though... Sometimes taking that long break definitely helps. I am seeing it, next step would be MICRO'S, just need to settle in then I will be back. Thanks for remembering me.
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Wow! It's been FIVE years since I started this thread. I read my FIRST post and realized nothing CHANGED (of course, I am talking wrt trading) in my mindset except very FEW but IMPORTANT.
1. CONTEXT is still KING
2. Still trying to find falling knives but I am MINDFUL of that fact
3. PULLBACK trades are way better for your mind and body than REVERSIONS
4. ORDERFLOW/TAPE kind of helps to read CONTEXT when you are trying to ENTER or EXIT trade
5. Trading using SUPPLY and DEMAND
6. IT IS ALWAYS ABOUT LEVELS THAN WINNING
7. DON'T CHANGE METHODS
8. PRACTICE PRACTICE PRACTICE
If anyone wants to learn anything from my experience then it's those last THREE points...Unfortunately, I still do ignore my own suggestions, but a path to improvement is recognizing the problem.
----------------
What happened ?
1. I started back to trading after long long break but my timing was impeccable...COVID hit the world, that changed the CONTEXT
2. Fortunately I started with SIM trading using Bookmap, but I really didn't understand what I was doing wrt to orderflow and Bookmap. I was adding contracts and removing contracts but somehow due to volatility I had winning DAYS, I doubled 50K account...I was top of the world because I was never able to do it even in SIM trading.
3. I started trading Micro ES (this is GOD gift for futures traders) and reality hit me, I always have impeccable timing of choosing wrong days to trade.
4. I discontinued using Bookmap but that curious monkey in me always want to understand WHY behind it so now I have Jigsaw DOM.
5. Again started on SIM doing very good
6. Started real trading with Micro ES and did good this week (knock on wood). I might pause trading until this election and volatility settles in.
Will try to post my SIM/REAL trades to track progress...
I will also summarize my method later, it's nothing new ...lot of good traders already mentioned it million times.
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Today I was able to do FOUR SIM trades, until I get rid of my Trade #3 issue, I have to be careful.
Trade 1 - Winner
Trade 2 - LOSS
Trade 3 - BIG LOSSER to BIG WINNER, In my defense I would have closed it early but had lot of issue with mouse etc. this type of trading is clearly an issue for me. I wanted to capture this on video and I am glad I got it.
Trade 4 - Winner
Hope that I will learn something from these videos
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Was able to trade for real this week, slowly getting back...
Today, I was trailing nice and with one sudden drop market took half of my profits. But no regrets, If I can re-create this consistently then its all worth.
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These are my levels I am watching today...idea is to keep it very simple
1. Plot supply & demand levels using previous DAY and ON along with Y_Low, Y_High and Y_Close - Solid BLACK & WHITE
2. Watch how price behaves at these levels
3. Execute at PULLBACKS using order flow - THIS IS GREAY AREA - This is where my mind falters
NOTE: Levels DOESN'T matter when OTF enters the market, but DOM, LIQUIDITY and ORDER FLOW gives us clue
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These are todays supply and demand levels along typical levels (Y_Low, Y_High_Y_Close, VWAP, VPOC, ORH and ORL)...yesterday played out well
Again creating levels is EASY, executing is tough.
Closed at 40 ticks by noon and saw market flushing down, thought I have to get in, tried to trade at my levels but sometimes it's real tough when market is flushing down, you need to wait, you might not get proper price but it's worth the wait....
In short, I lost all my 40 ticks but held on to the trade and got back twice...still not happy with my execution.
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These are the levels I am looking at today, today I have to be extra careful, don't want to get in catching falling knives...
One change I noticed in my view is - I am getting better at NOT having a BIAS.
See where price is at my levels, watch order flow, take trade, either stop out or take profits quickly
So it all BOILS DOWN TO
Nailing entries and and KNOWING what your risk / reward is before you enter a trade is key. If stopped out MOVE ON, if not comfortable taking trade, just SHUT IT DOWN, market will be here next day too...
I was able to trade properly today, levels held up nice, but I was not in front of system to put a trade (maybe that's a good thing)...was able to short in the morning then added few longs later
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Trading on Friday is not my strength, in fact all my worst losses are on Friday, so I am being very careful today, I might go back to SIM trading today.
These are my levels...My thinking is if price goes below the box, longs should be very careful.
I have to learn how come up with scenarios, where PRICE will open, scenario1, scenario2 and scenario3 like FT7, but then I am thinking that will make me to form a bias and when I form a bias its very hard for me to get rid of the bias and accept the fact so not sure if that's a right idea.
I was scared to tradet today but was able to trade, not easy, but was manage to get GREEN, so SHUT IT DOWN.
This is for whole week Total ticks +248
Note: I am posting here just to hold me accountable, not to boast...If I can make anyone can make...
Next week is another week, but PROCESS should be SAME....CONSISTENCY is the KEY lets see.
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1. Watch LEVELS (EASY)
2. Watch ORDER FLOW at LEVELS (GREY AREA)
3. Execute trade (TOUGHEST part)
4. Not confident? - SHUT IT DOWN, Walking away when not feeling right is an important SKILL
To summarize my trading today
Discipline -> Shit -> OK -> Deep Shit -> OK -> Neutral
Finally was able to close out with few positive ticks
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Not a good day of trading, missed whole morning session then was going good and then made a mistake of taking a breakout trade, I was in profit and wanted to close immediately realizing my mistake but somehow I forgot which button to click on DOM (I know, I know...) and price reversed on me and I was never able to recover...
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Yesterday I started with loss, its real difficult to dig out of hole, we all know that, that's we have to be extra careful to get that first trade success.
As hour progressed I dig that hole little deeper but finally was able to climb the hole and close at NET ZERO plus commissions.
I know I am paying commissions but I am considering this as training.
My goal is to train my mind to trade for ONE to TWO hours, reach my GOAL, shut it down and move one with my life.
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Trading: The one I'm creating in the present....Index Futures mini/micro, ZF
Posts: 2,265 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 7,167 given,
4,399
received
All good my brother. Keep it up. You are doing GREAT.
Take a look at this book I completely love....
“There’s a name for this: Resulting. When people result, they look at whether the result was good or bad to figure out if the decision was good or bad. (Psychologists call this “outcome bias,” but I prefer the more intuitive term “resulting.”) We take this resulting shortcut because we can’t clearly “see” whether the decision was good or bad, especially after the fact, but we can clearly see if the outcome was good or bad. Resulting is a way to simplify complex assessments of decision quality. The problem? Simple isn’t always better. Decision quality and outcome quality are, of course, correlated. But not perfectly, at least not in most decisions we make, and certainly not when we have only one try at the decision. The relationship between the two can take a long time to play out. RESULTING A mental shortcut in which we use the quality of an outcome to figure out the quality of a decision. In a single instance (I quit my job and it turned out horribly), it’s hard to say if a bad outcome (or a good one) was because of the quality of the decision. Sometimes we make good decisions and they turn out well. Sometimes we make good decisions and they turn out poorly. You can run a red light and get through the intersection unscathed. You can go through a green light and get in an accident. This means that working backward from the quality of a single outcome to figure out whether a decision was good or bad is going to lead to some poor conclusions. Resulting can make you think that running red lights is a good idea.”
— How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices by Annie Duke https://a.co/eaEnX0q
I believe it's time for me to face the reality, I started posting on this journal again to make myself accountable and transparent. I was doing good until last Friday or is it an ongoing issue, not sure.
Last Friday, I somehow ignored my TWO most important rules of day trading
i.e 1. NO BIAS just trade what you see
2. NO TRADING OPEN
I broke my first rule for the FIRST TIME in a long time (Hindsight, I am RIGHT, if I held that short for two more days, I would be looking at huge gain)
I broke my second rule multiple times but it's based on context.
Anyway I was able to recover and trade consistently this week. Friday, I am going to take a break, I don't want Friday to screw me again
The main idea is to prove myself that I can trade consistently and move from MES to ES.
I need to take following actions in order to do it
1. Set up a daily loss limit at brokerage level
2. Set up a limit on max number of contracts traded at a time
December
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Market dynamics changed, I recognized that fact and was cautious and reached my goal in pre-market itself. I should have shut it down but I didn't and paid the price.
Got stopped out multiple times, recovered back and gave it back more, and now I am walking away, I should have done this once I reached my goal.
Monkey brain. I need to adjust the rules for number of stops, I will adjust it.
I am planning to enroll in to a combine and start trading ES.
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but unfortunately, I am not in this last leg. I am glad I took multiple profits in the mean time so, am I just got lucky or finally getting hold of this swing trading?
