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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #771 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159


bmtrading9 View Post
Trying to re-start...KEY IS TO FORM A PLAN, ADJUST THE PLAN (If needed) and EXECUTE THE PLAN...let's see if I can do it, I am aware of volatility in coming days but need to start somewhere to shed the FEAR.

CL

Weekly Trend - Down

Daily - Bear flag

News - Report Day

Hypo - 1

Trading levels - Upper bound 48.40, lower bound 47.20

Hypo - 2

Buy at 45.90 with 30 tick stop on QM for a swing


------------------

ES

Weekly - Neutral
Daily - Flat
News - UK election and Comey testimony

Hypo - 1

Trading levels - Upper bound 2337/39, lower bound 2421/2413

Hypo - 2

None or swing short if price stays below 2337-40


As of now Hype-2 is in play for oil and price is getting accepted at these levels but I feel it still have lot of room to go down and with Qatar tension in middle east it looks risky to catch a falling knife...will have to wait and see how this plays out.

Next real support I will be looking at is yearly low for a swing on QM.

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  #772 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Bought a Jul/Aug VIX futures calendar spread for 0.85. I am learning this so don't ask me more questions as I don't know. I might explore this option on CL too.

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Thanked by:
  #773 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159


CL

Weekly Trend - Down

Daily - Bear flag broken after report

News - ECB and Comey Testimony

Hypo - 1

Price rejected 46.12 and now in search of new value, I belive if price can stay above 45.50 area then it's a decent chance of long but my expectation is it will go down so not going to rush into trades.

Long - 44.60 to 44.50 for reversal or If price can stay above 45.50.
Short - Too oversold to consider shorts

Hypo - 2

Levels to buy at 44.05 and 42.50 with 30 tick stop on QM for a swing

------------------

ES

Weekly - UP
Daily - Flat, reaching upper bound
News - UK election and Comey testimony

Hypo - 1

Trading levels - Be on sidelines

Hypo - 2

None or swing short if price stays below 2337-40

----------------

Current Trades

VIX calendar spread Jul/Aug

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Thanked by:
  #774 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Bought one QM at 45.70, I would be wrong if price stays and develops below 45.50... This is what my issue is should I put hard stop or how should I proceed?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

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Thanked by:
  #775 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159


bmtrading9 View Post
Bought one QM at 45.70, I would be wrong if price stays and develops below 45.50... This is what my issue is should I put hard stop or how should I proceed?

Sent from my ONEPLUS A3000 using Tapatalk

Just stopped out QM @ 45.40, feels fine as I followed a plan.

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  #776 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

CL
Weekly Trend - Down
Daily - Trying to find support

Hypo - 1

Price tested yesterday's lows overnight and bounced back so reversal is immenient given uncertinity and weekend coming look for LONGS only.

Long - 44.60 to 44.50 for reversal or If price can stay above 45.50.

Short - Too oversold to consider shorts

Hypo - 2

Levels to buy at 44.05 and 42.50 with 30 tick stop on QM for a swing

Last Trade

QM stopped out at 45.40 (This is the problem with overnight holding eventhough thesis is right you might get stopped out)

Current Trades

1 Long QM @ 45.60 (Re-entry) - Will be confident if price stays above 45.92 with target of 46.85...I will wrong if price develops below 45.30 area.

------------------

ES

Weekly - UP
Daily - Flat

Hypo - 1

Priced touched on reversed at 2424 area after UK election back to value at 2433 area unless OTF steps in range remains intact 2439/37 to 2428.

Hypo - 2

None or swing short if price stays below 2337-40

----------------
Last Trades - None

Current Trades

VIX calendar spread Jul/Aug - Planning to break the Aug leg today or next week.

Edit - Short TF @ 1426.5 for a swing
Edit - Broke the VIX spread so right not just have Jul vix contract.

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Thanked by:
  #777 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

Still holding QM long, VIX long and TF short.

Edit: I guess I should get rid of oil from my trading...stop at BE now, not at all confident only thing letting me to hold this long is order flow on CD. I really hope if this stays above 46 then we might have good upside move.

Edit: Closed QM long, kind of frustrated with this.

Edit: Closed VXN7, It can go up but common sense dictates that if VIX is up 15% from low take it off (Wow! maybe not)...might close TF short too.

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Thanked by:
  #778 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

CL
Weekly Trend - Down
Daily - Flat to UP

Hypo - 1

Price stayed above last two days VA/VAH which shows the strength

Long - 46.05 area after watching order flow as indices are looking weak

Short - If price develops below 46 try to stay short with tight stops for 44.05 or 47.20 area

Last Trade

QM- Out at 45.82 from 45.60

Current Trades

None

------------------

IWM

Weekly - UP
Daily - UP/reversal

Hypo - 1

Priced touched ATH and reversed based on NQ weakness on HIGH volume so thought small caps will be better to short than ES or NQ but somehow Russel show strength today I am expecting Russel to show weakness. In coming days I expect IWM to reach 139.17.

----------------
Last Trades - None

Current Trades

Short TF for a swing



Edit: Kicking myself in the back for not taking when I had 17 points on that Russell short. My thesis is kind of falling apart about small caps, will give it some time to decide.

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Thanked by:
  #779 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159

CL- CONTEXT

Weekly Trend - Down

Daily - Flat - Third bear flag developing
Price is ranging between MVPOC (45.95) and 46.70 but it has to resolve in one direction if not today definetly tomorrow after the report.

BIAS - Be flexible both ways with 46.30 as key level.

Hypo - 1

Price goes to extremes and reverses

Hypo - 2

Price stays above/below 46.30 and continues higher/lower

Last Trade

QM- Out at 45.82 from 45.60

Current Trades

None

------------------

IWM- CONTEXT

News - Sessions testimony
Weekly Trend - UP
Daily - Flat to UP
Price is at MVPOC at 141.37

BIAS - Be flexible both ways with 141.37 as key level.

Hypo - 1

Price goes to extremes and reverses

Hypo - 2

Price stays above/below 141.37 and continues higher/lower

Last Trade

TF- Out at 1424 from 1430

Current Trades

None

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  #780 (permalink)
 bmtrading9 
Atlanta, GA, USA
Market Wizard
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks Given: 3,001
Thanks Received: 2,159


Damn it after preparing my daily I slept again...anyway, I was not confident with my setups either so not going to worry about it much...I will analyze how Sessions testimony will impact market today at 1:30.

In CL long looks fine as long it hold 45.60 area as OTF players not there yet to smack it down.

Edit: That was fast on CL, I didn't took the trade as I was concentrating something at work but glad that I got my read correct...Any news?

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Last Updated on January 6, 2021


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