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Managed properly to get back from hole to slight profits.
Gold Trade
Did ok with this short from 1216 to 1197
No fear nothing because of micro contract...that's the important of position size
Oil Trade
Again did ok with this trade short from 53.45 to 52.85...had to get out because of oil report, still no resolution
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Current Trades
Short NG via QG after seeing sellers but sellers were gone immediately maybe playing games because of contract roll-over don't know but will give some room.
Regret: Not taking Mini Russel trade...that freaking thing zoomed to the moon.
Uff...Managed to get out of this NG short efficiently...I use multiple charts for my entries and exits but displaying my entries and exits in PF chart for clarity...Of course, needless to say I missed few trades in Micro Gold and Ten year bonds (Yes, I know know...)
1. Saw sellers on CD taking control and enter a short at 3.33. But, damn sellers dissapered very quickly but as always I enter the trade with bigger time frame in my mind I said myself don't worry sellers will be back and removed my stop to give some wiggle room. Buyers bought this one relentlessly whole night i.e on 25th.
2. I got very impatient and add another short at 3.44 i.e 26th morning.
3. Now I still room to add one more contract but everything is looking damn foolish. But I still entered my last contract at 3.475 i.e 26th morning.
4. When I saw no sellers at all in the morning I have to reduce my exposure so I took profits on my last add.
5. Now I saw sellers coming back but price did final push up to the resistance at 3.5 (Last Week High) and took another short at 3.485 but this time I was confident that it's going to go down like I was very much confident when I entered this short in step ONE. Now all I have to do is reduce my exposure slowly at different levels.
6. As expected sellers were pushing it down since my main goal now is to reduce the risk I took profits on one contract.
7. Put a limit buy overnight but price was still above Weekly and monthly VWAP so hesitant if price will ever reach my target but selling pressure was too high in the morning I thought Europe will puke in the night and they did.
8. Now Buyers sees value and started accumulating the positions so I have to exit my final position in the 27th morning...I wanted to buy back for up run but was too busy with the personal work and couldn't concentrate.
Lessons to be learnt.
Freaking get out when bias doesn't work right away but my FEAR is I won't be there to when it actually works in my favor...I am not sure how these guys do it but any help will be really appreciated.
Goal - To go thru big mikes thread as I believe I will learn something about how he transitioned from smaller time frame to bigger time frame trader.
Thanks, I know that would be bad specially in shorting. I was adding at levels i.e extreme of Weekly VWAP SD bands. At trade#4 and #5 I realized I have a winner and held on to the trade. I noticed I am right mostly in my analysis but execution I tend to be early so I intend to minimize the risk by using half the size contracts so that it won't hit my loss tolerance levels. In this trade it never hit daily or per trade loss limit but cutting down early and reenter in the morning would have helped tremendously... This is exactly my struggle is changing the bias and getting in right direction immediately.
This damn CL, I couldn't get a read on it so here is my attempt once more
Weekly - Price tried to go down below 5 SMA but couldn't hold below that making it flat so we can say it's in range
Daily - Price is at top of the range, price tried to breakout of month long range but it was curbed down quickly and bought back up with same speed even-though after multiple bad oil reports which tells us some big players are trying to manipulate...god knows who will win it finally.
Hourly - Price tried to go past Last Month's VWAP SD2 but quickly faded and now below $54 but couldn't get past weekly and monthly VWAP.
Bias - Based on above analysis I am leaning towards BULLISH as long as it hold those weekly and monthly VWAP's on HOURLY basis.
Today my urge to do something even though I am not ready... forced three unnecessary trades but recognized it very quickly and got out of those trades quickly for scratch or very small loss. I have very interesting trade to share, I will share it over the weekend it's a loss but good lesson.
I was trading QG this year since the overnight margins are not that high and it gives me to scale in.
After big drop (Step-1 in daily chart), it tried to rally but immediately curb down on Wednesday as Thursday was report day. After report price was trying to comeback but struggling.
Now I have to decide which way I want to trade. Do I need to anticipate a reversal or continuation of downtrend to fill gap down at bottom? I was NOT sure till 12 noon but I thought
1. Report is not that bad but price is still struggling to rebound and
2. There is no real buying in order flow (I am trying to learn the order flow using Cum Delta) which shows big buyers are not at all interested.
Trade
Based on above context SHORT is very obvious but at the same time in back of my mind sellers might come in quickly to cover shorts so I have to define my STOPS properly.
Trade-1: Entry
Short 1 contract @ 3.195 and STOP is clearly around 3.23 based on HOURLY CLOSE. I have to let go of my SHORT bias (This part is very tough for me) eventhough I can manage the trade with scale-in’s.
In the trade- Price came down immediately which means now I have an advantage but still aware of situation and afraid of sharp short covering.
Trade-1: Exit
While price dropped immediately, price started to come back now with CD diverging mean buyers are bidding this thing up. I closed the trade at breakeven (Step-3) and almost immediately reversed the trade to the long side now I am very confident that price will rebound sharply. In this process what I forgot was that buying at the close was pit close and locals were just covering short positions (But how in the world I will know that right? Recently I went thru that struggle for not following order flow).
Trade-2
Entry – [email protected] (Step-4)
Stop- 3.085 (Full overnight disaster stop level) (Step-5)
After Asia open price kept going down and it hit my stop. I still could have managed this trade with scale-in still within my loss tolerance levels/
If I would have stick to my original thesis this would have been a 5% winner instead I made it a loss (Not a big loss but still loss).
Bottom line is – How in the world I can avoid these situations, remember I am not doing day trading or scalping. I have to swing trade because of time constraints. I know there is no BLACK or WHITE and also at the same time one MUST NOT wait for full stops to hit etc. etc. So to gain more insight into order flow I started looking at BOOKMAP tool but I feel like it would be more useful for intraday day trading not for swing trading.
Any suggestions will be appreciated.
Being wrong about the short would have been very bad....
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