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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #641 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,612 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,584 given, 1,727 received

@bobwest I have question about combine since you are the go to guy regarding combines...is that $1000 loss rule for intra-day or eod? I am assuming at any given point of the trading day your loss shouldn't exceed more than $1000 right? Because based on this rule I have to trade differently for this combine.

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  #642 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,612 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,584 given, 1,727 received


rocksolid68 View Post
Good post. Glad you did it.

So, would you like to dissect it with me?

Good:
-If it were a larger sample, I imagine you would have a ~50% profitable which is really good!
-You hold your trades for a decent amount of time (not in and out in <1 minute etc.)
-You have good account management; you are in a 50k combine but only using 3 lots per trade.

Bad:
-Your average loss duration is equal to that of a win
-Your winning days are small
-You have large down days
-Your largest winning day averaged ~3 ticks per contract traded
-Your largest losing day averaged ~5 ticks per contract traded
-You trade far more on losing days than on winning days


What can we conclude from this?

-You have a high enough profitablity rate on a daily level to be profitable.
-You need to let your winners do their job! You cut your winners short which is hindering your profitablity.
-You need to recognize when you are letting emotion dictate your trades rather than logic/rational thinking.

All in all, I think that if you would let your winning trades pay you more, you would be a profitable trader. Find out what is causing your loss days to be as large as they are and fix that.

When you "predict" the direction of the market, why not let it work for you?

Hope this helps!

Thanks for the analysis

1. That first day loss is huge because that's me miscalculating the power of CL move and entering with 3 contracts.

2. Quick in and out is due to the fact that I would be on road dropping my kids at school during pit open.

3. I reduced my size to max 2 contracts to protect from these wild swing on CL and to survive that $1000 intraday rule

4. I developed fairly good system and good sense for CL moves based on posts from @Inletcap and others but I am still not letting my trades to fully develop (This is work in progress, only way to overcome is to have very big account maybe 100K)

5. Not trading TWO days (Thursday and Friday) hurt me a lot more.

6. Today was a good day because I just took one trade and got out for some 35 ticks.

7. The main goal of this TST combine is to prove myself that I can adhere to these strict rules rather than funding. Of course, funding would be excellent but not worried about that at this moment.

8. I am trading my regular account along with this TST.

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  #643 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 3,568 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 25,651 given, 10,814 received
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bmtrading9 View Post
@bobwest I have question about combine since you are the go to guy regarding combines...is that $1000 loss rule for intra-day or eod? I am assuming at any given point of the trading day your loss shouldn't exceed more than $1000 right? Because based on this rule I have to trade differently for this combine.

You're correct. If the daily loss hits your Daily Loss Limit ($1,000 for a 50K Combine) any time during the day, including during an open trade, then you're done. So long as it never does, then the next day you've got another 1,000 for that day, etc.

There's also the Trailing Max Drawdown (2,000 for a 50K), which is EOD. That's the max you can lose in total, from your account's highest point. So you can dip below it during the day, but if you move back up before the EOD you are OK. They are different, and that can be confusing.

(Also, since it is the max from your highest point, it trails upward as you make new profit highs, until it has trailed up to the initial 50K balance, where it stops trailing. Example: you start out with an account balance of 50,000, and your maximum drawdown balance = 48,000. If your account balance goes to 50,500, then your Maximum Drawdown level becomes 48,500. But it won't go above 50,000.)

If that part about Max Drawdown wasn't clear, let me know. But you are right about the daily limit being any time during the day.

Bob.

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  #644 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,612 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,584 given, 1,727 received


bobwest View Post
You're correct. If the daily loss hits your Daily Loss Limit ($1,000 for a 50K Combine) any time during the day, including during an open trade, then you're done. So long as it never does, then the next day you've got another 1,000 for that day, etc.

There's also the Trailing Max Drawdown (2,000 for a 50K), which is EOD. That's the max you can lose in total, from your account's highest point. So you can dip below it during the day, but if you move back up before the EOD you are OK. They are different, and that can be confusing.

(Also, since it is the max from your highest point, it trails upward as you make new profit highs, until it has trailed up to the initial 50K balance, where it stops trailing. Example: you start out with an account balance of 50,000, and your maximum drawdown balance = 48,000. If your account balance goes to 50,500, then your Maximum Drawdown level becomes 48,500. But it won't go above 50,000.)

If that part about Max Drawdown wasn't clear, let me know. But you are right about the daily limit being any time during the day.

Bob.

Damn!, then I have to trade with one or max two contracts on this CL, that makes it very difficult for holding for longer periods for 50 or 70 ticks...One more question can we hold contracts into some events such as oil report? I am pretty sure we can but just wanted to confirm.

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  #645 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES, CL
 
Posts: 3,568 since Jan 2013
Thanks: 25,651 given, 10,814 received
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bmtrading9 View Post
Damn!, then I have to trade with one or max two contracts on this CL, that makes it very difficult for holding for longer periods for 50 or 70 ticks...One more question can we hold contracts into some events such as oil report? I am pretty sure we can but just wanted to confirm.

Yes, there is no restriction in the Combine on trading based on news events. (There is once a trader passes the Combine and goes on to a Funded Trader Prep. or funded status) Source: https://help.topsteptrader.com/hc/en-us/articles/220389548-Economic-Release-Calendar :


Quoting 
Combine traders do not need to be flat during any releases.

Also, note that they are sticky about always trading the front month (they do send out an email usually about CL rollover) and closing before the daily electronic close (e.g, that would be by 3:10 CT for ES). Check the web site for details.

I think you are absolutely correct about the max contracts. I would not do more than 2 in any 50K combine. Trading too large is one of the major reasons I see people failing the Combine for. Frankly, for CL one contract may be better. Just profit slowly -- there is no maximum time limit.

Bob.

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  #646 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: IB
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Posts: 1,612 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,584 given, 1,727 received

TST Combine - 08/15

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  #647 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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bmtrading9 View Post
Damn!, then I have to trade with one or max two contracts on this CL, that makes it very difficult for holding for longer periods for 50 or 70 ticks...One more question can we hold contracts into some events such as oil report? I am pretty sure we can but just wanted to confirm.

I've wondered if the best way to pass a combine would be to make your daily income, then risk it every day. If I understand correctly, there is no time limit to pass? So if you stay break even for a few days or even a couple weeks then nail it on a trend day, your done! Just a thought...

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  #648 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
I've wondered if the best way to pass a combine would be to make your daily income, then risk it every day. If I understand correctly, there is no time limit to pass? So if you stay break even for a few days or even a couple weeks then nail it on a trend day, your done! Just a thought...

Would definitely be interesting...

I've always wondered if we could connive you into doing a combine yourself

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  #649 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
Thanks: 9,767 given, 25,181 received
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rocksolid68 View Post
Would definitely be interesting...

I've always wondered if we could connive you into doing a combine yourself

Nope! I couldn't anyway as I'm registered. I've seen so many try these in journals and I believe the loss limit is a major issue but I think with a market like ES, using what's listed in his dashboard above one could fade like 2 contracts off the open and lock in a few points income then come back on with 3 once the market structure is in place for the day on a trade such as a VWAP retrace or OR top/bottom fade and just let it ride( may need to wait till some volatility returns)

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  #650 (permalink)
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Inletcap View Post
Nope! I couldn't anyway as I'm registered. I've seen so many try these in journals and I believe the loss limit is a major issue but I think with a market like ES, using what's listed in his dashboard above one could fade like 2 contracts off the open and lock in a few points income then come back on with 3 on a trade such as a VWAP retrace or OR top/bottom fade and just let it ride.

I didn't think you could!

As far as your idea, I think that you are on to something! The problem with these things is the fact you have to do Funded Traders Prep which is pretty much a second combine that dictates your future account balance and drawdown.

Needless to say, it is a hamster wheel for many.

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