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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #631 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
NYC, NY, USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader
Broker/Data: NT
Favorite Futures: Indices, Energy
 
Posts: 13 since Jul 2015
Thanks: 0 given, 4 received

Keep working at it

Experience grants to anyone...a learning curve concerning price action and the traders who trade those instruments.

I believe there are more factors regarding markets than what is actually being shared.
Indicators are limited and unreliable, yet show a reference to past movement....and I suggest to reference them to the instrument trader behavior.

Many people say no one person can push an instrument? False, some know how to trigger HFT systems into action, so YES someone can manipulate a market with some decent money...JUST LOOK AT OIL! Fisher stated his buddies run +7% of heating oil! Crude oil...can sit idle...then...slam 30-50 ticks in under 2 minutes: HFTS. The indicators are late.

didn't anyone notice, most indicators go long, then price drops 15/25 ticks? Retail trades came in, stops are computer monitored and light up a "trigger" where they are clustered... then hunted. They state that is not occuring...it does occur and they call it the natural flow of the market. B_LL S____.


Personally...news can be garbage. Tendency: buy or sell few days before a news release and tend to do the opposite at the release regarding oil. So go back over the historicals, it occurs often.

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  #632 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Now, I exactly know what's my problem is. Working on to fix it. Will update soon later. Here are few trades on simulation.

Note: Past performance doesn't guarantee future performance

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  #633 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Boston, MA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7
Favorite Futures: CL, RB, LE
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 102 given, 174 received



Kowabunga View Post
...Personally...news can be garbage. Tendency: buy or sell few days before a news release and tend to do the opposite at the release regarding oil. So go back over the historicals, it occurs often.

What if you were to factor in the huge increase in short positions in CL over the last two weeks, and all those short positions are now buying-to-cover their open posits? Surely that would insert a spike in price.

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  #634 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

System lost 1300 with 3 contracts and I managed to get to breakeven.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #635 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

I am kicking myself for not trading in last two days...what a miss.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #636 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
Boston, MA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT7
Favorite Futures: CL, RB, LE
 
Posts: 264 since Apr 2014
Thanks: 102 given, 174 received


bmtrading9 View Post
I am kicking myself for not trading in last two days...what a miss.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Take solace in the fact that there will always be more opportunities. Especially now that we are nearing the end of the summer doldrums of trading. Today's CL nuttiness was an odd fluke, could have been a combo of all the shorts buying to cover, and new players buying in long for the future. It retraced quite unexpectedly over 100% since yesterday, on a non-report day. Can't find any news that might explain it, but I don't have a Bloomberg terminal. Wonder if one of those might actually help?

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  #637 (permalink)
Elite Member
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
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HoopyTrading View Post
Take solace in the fact that there will always be more opportunities. Especially now that we are nearing the end of the summer doldrums of trading. Today's CL nuttiness was an odd fluke, could have been a combo of all the shorts buying to cover, and new players buying in long for the future. It retraced quite unexpectedly over 100% since yesterday, on a non-report day. Can't find any news that might explain it, but I don't have a Bloomberg terminal. Wonder if one of those might actually help?

Nope- it wont help!!!

33t OR let us know something was going to happen- A lot of timeframes converged long today. Seems the first week of the year OR_Bottom held the recent downturn.

@bmtrading9
I missed half the rally today - and by missed, I mean lost!!- Wish I woulda sat it out as you did- playing makeup is never fun if it doesn't involve your mistress. Check out the Elite Commodities thread- we might be setting up for a very nice swing trade soon

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  #638 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Inletcap View Post
Nope- it wont help!!!

33t OR let us know something was going to happen- A lot of timeframes converged long today. Seems the first week of the year OR_Bottom held the recent downturn.

@bmtrading9
I missed half the rally today - and by missed, I mean lost!!- Wish I woulda sat it out as you did- playing makeup is never fun if it doesn't involve your mistress. Check out the Elite Commodities thread- we might be setting up for a very nice swing trade soon

Precisely that 30+ tick OR threw me a curve ball exactly last Thursday. Today when I saw that 33t OR I told myself, not going to get fooled once again and find my self scrambling for breakeven by eod, so took myself out markets just to find myself wondering, am I capable of trading or am I just fooling myself and wasting time and energy. I also have my long term swing charts turning to bullish.

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  #639 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

TST 50K Combine

It's been a while since I took this journal seriously, I was testing, retesting the stratergies even-though I am Well aware of the fact
that there is no magic formula so to instill more disciple I started a TopStep Combine last week but I am still not taking it seriously. To my surprise I am still surviving these rules (I hate rules, that's why I resisted all these days to signup for one).

Here is my current screenshot and today is the day I told myself not to close the trade untill the end (ughhh....rules rules) but didn't stick to that rule so took some 35 ticks on CL. First two days of the combine went towards learning the TST system, rules and panic trades by thinking of these rules. Anyway now I got used to these rules so hopefully I can pull it thru this combine.

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  #640 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Duluth MN
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader/Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: AMP
Favorite Futures: ES
 
rocksolid68's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,019 since Jan 2015
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bmtrading9 View Post
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Good post. Glad you did it.

So, would you like to dissect it with me?

Good:
-If it were a larger sample, I imagine you would have a ~50% profitable which is really good!
-You hold your trades for a decent amount of time (not in and out in <1 minute etc.)
-You have good account management; you are in a 50k combine but only using 3 lots per trade.

Bad:
-Your average loss duration is equal to that of a win
-Your winning days are small
-You have large down days
-Your largest winning day averaged ~3 ticks per contract traded
-Your largest losing day averaged ~5 ticks per contract traded
-You trade far more on losing days than on winning days


What can we conclude from this?

-You have a high enough profitablity rate on a daily level to be profitable.
-You need to let your winners do their job! You cut your winners short which is hindering your profitablity.
-You need to recognize when you are letting emotion dictate your trades rather than logic/rational thinking.

All in all, I think that if you would let your winning trades pay you more, you would be a profitable trader. Find out what is causing your loss days to be as large as they are and fix that.

When you "predict" the direction of the market, why not let it work for you?

Hope this helps!

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