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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #491 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


steve2222 View Post
Which post are you referring to?

The link goes to the home page for his blog.

Do we assume you mean the 6th March post?

http://www.discretionary-trading.com/the-philosophy/

This one and pre-open prep...nothing new though @Inletcap has been teaching these from ages.

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  #492 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

I am glad this month is over , virtually nothing went my way. That PnL screen will be ugly.

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  #493 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
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@Inletcap is this how you read PF chart?

on ES break of 2050 short and on CL break of 38 short?

This is 25 min PF chart (1x3 on ES and 0.1x3 on CL), I am I reading this properly?

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  #494 (permalink)
Elite Member
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES, CL, ETFs
 
Inletcap's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
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On a P&F chart a column of O's exceeding a previos column of O's is called a sell signal ( vice versa for a buy) but I advise to always look to the left and see where it's coming from... For example - is it a continuation( successive) signal? Was there a big base that the signal came after? What was the trend leading up to the signal? Is the signal coming from a previos area of S/R from the past?

It's important to "tune" your chart to capture the volatility you want to trade for a particular market. I use two for day trading ( one with a larger box size for when things get choppy on the smaller box sized one) so that I can see the forest through the trees- also, when they are both in agreement- I had better be trading in that direction or I better have a damn good reason to be counter trend bcuz chances are I'm not seeing things very clearly or just being stubborn if I'm not.

Short answer is- Yes, you are reading the charts properly

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  #495 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
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Based on above P&F charts and other parameters I took short on YM at 17580 and covered at 17530 (ufff something positive after so many days). I should have take Oil short also 38 but thought it is oversold.

Edit: covered mainly due to pending jobs report.

Edit: Seriously market always fools happened twice for my swings once for oil short before and YM now.

Today's plan

I am expecting a trend down day.

Based on internals and availability of time I will try to sell rips at strategic points like pivots, OR top/bottom, VWAP etc. I am not good in shorting so it's kind of a scary thought.


Last edited by bmtrading9; April 1st, 2016 at 09:57 AM.
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  #496 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
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I am so freaking wrong about trend down day...

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  #497 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
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bmtrading9 View Post
Wow! This guy nailed it perfectly atleast theory wise.

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"I used to fade all the weaknesses at the starting stages of my journey with YTC and I was doomed. Then, I started fading weaknesses against the future bias and the losses decreased, but I was not profitable yet."

Ahhhh moment...

"Then I started fading weaknesses in the direction of the future bias at the price levels given by the market with its past data. I started getting profits."

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  #498 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

March2016

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Just no words...still profitable for the year and that consistency seems to be very very very far and totally out of reach now.

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  #499 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Sarasota FL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NinjaTrader, Sierra Chart
Favorite Futures: ES
 
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bmtrading9 View Post
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Just no words...still profitable for the year and that consistency seems to be very very very far and totally out of reach now.

I see only three bars that kept you from being profitable, and two of them are small enough that they may have just been due to chance.

Even if not, there probably are specific things that happened in each of those days that, if addressed, would make a difference going forward.

There is something you can do to make a change.

I hope that you will find it soon. The way to debug or otherwise fix anything is to go step by step, changing things one at a time until you get it. There is no doubt at all that you can.

Good luck with this, and keep your spirits up. It is possible to handle anything, although it may take its own sweet time to do it.

Bob.

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  #500 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,909 given, 2,011 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



bobwest View Post
I see only three bars that kept you from being profitable, and two of them are small enough that they may have just been due to chance.

Even if not, there probably are specific things that happened in each of those days that, if addressed, would make a difference going forward.

There is something you can do to make a change.

I hope that you will find it soon. The way to debug or otherwise fix anything is to go step by step, changing things one at a time until you get it. There is no doubt at all that you can.

Good luck with this, and keep your spirits up. It is possible to handle anything, although it may take its own sweet time to do it.

Bob.

Thanks Bob, few things as think about this....

I did good in January and ok in Feb mainly because of volatility. Majority of my profits came from longs in January and Feb not by shorting even though counter trend trades at that time I placed orders at strategic levels such as pivots, ADR_L and sometimes 1.5ADR_L and I got bailed out because of volatility. That same principle didn't work in March and this is zillionth time I am learning every time I think this time might be different but market laughs at me

Anyway these days are I am actually doing ok because I am bailing out when I am wrong not holding on to the loosing trades (those three days were mix of revenge trades and blindside shots by market).

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