Happening right now, closed my short at 16300 wanted to hold it till the target put an OCO order to close it 16230 but intervened manually and closed it because I saw these gyrations overnight and couldn't hold on to it but anyway it's approaching support levels too so not a bad one.
Closed my TZA also...Big question is now trade or not to trade? I have vacation coming up, I meet my weekly goal but last week is a loss though so kind of breakeven for last two weeks...
Analysis
My prediction right on but just couldn't execute properly (same story another week).
Edit: Gave up all the gains...this is bothering scenario definitely didn't see reversal coming with this pace. Didn't loose much and still profitable for the week but now I am way below my target for the week and vacation coming up, I have two trading days left to make it up, I am not saying I am going to force myself in these two days but today is depressing even-though I didn't loose but I lost confidence. In between I was long also but just to freak out and once I saw UVOL coming up I had a long too but just couldn't hold on to it and kept shorting.
Yes sir, fear of missing/skeptical/waiting for confirmation all along...
1. I had a short overnight covered it early around 4 AM for around 100 YM points or 10 ES handles (I was not awake all night just saw in between that's all...). Within 30 mins price reached my target.
2. Covered TZA (Russel short) in the morning did good there
3. Then saw Oil rip but UVOL was not confirming the move so ES came down as expected, my mistake was to expect price to continue downwards (thought of retail bus trade because retail would have bought from that down move).
4. Added a long at the pull back to VWAP at 1904 (I have to wait for these kind of trades in future) but sold immediately because my bias was bearish because of overnight strength in selling and previously this kind selling fueled further selling...
5. Oil didn't move that much, waited, waited and then shorted just before the rip (bummer) then covered and added a long because I don't want to miss the upside move but sold for few points didn't expected this powerful move.
6. From this point onward took few revenge and fear of missing downward move trades and finally gave up and call it a day because I can't take it anymore
7. Overall flat day but that's depressing as I gave up all my profits (Previously I would have hold on to the losses forever, it's the only positive sign ). But overall profitable for the week.
Maybe this will help someone too...
Thanks for asking...
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I just went back and read my journal posts starting this year...and it's all same mistakes repeating again and again
1. Fear
2. Waiting for confirmation
3. Able to predict but unable to act
4. Get in but cannot hold on
Unless I increase my contract size I cannot scale in unless I scale in I cannot maximize...for now my main goal is meet my weekly goal for 80% of the time for six months i.e till June...then I consider myself consistent till then struggle goes on.
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Hi bmtrading9,
I know how It feels giving back what you have won.
I learned to recognize that in those occasions where I had a profit (good profits) the only error I could make was giving them back. But at the same time I knew how important is letting profits run. So, what I decided to do was to exit a third of my position whenever the price break the trend-line. If the price tested the trend-line but did not break it at the close of the price bar then I decided to adjust the slope of the trend-line waiting until a break to exit.
Sometimes, what happens is a breakout of resistance (or support if you are short) and have a burst in price movement. What to do? Simple, draw a new trend line (big slope this time) and continue the process until a bar close breaks It. This way, I learned to let profits run while at the same time kept most of my paper profits.
Don't try to forecast the next market move. That's a waste of time. Forecasting gives birth to expectations; and when you have expectations you feel obligated to fulfil them. That will keep you unaware of the now moment.
Don't hesitate, just trade!
The following 2 users say Thank You to mzabarain for this post:
Since I need to build confidence I am taking it slow again, Just took ywo trades First ES short trade at OR low 1930 with hesitation by seeing OIL breaking down and closed it at 1926.5 and second TZA based on 2 hr chart, will try to swing this TZA but I might close it before Friday. The real profitable trade would've been buying ES/YM at S2 support of oil because that bounce combined with EUROPE close.
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I hope I'll be able to help you. I use to do the same mistakes. It's all about emotion. So you need to reduce your exposition to trade comfortably. Don't close your actual trade. But your next trades have to be less risky for you. With smaller trade you'll be able to trade wisely. And If you get enough confidence and enough discipline try to engage a bit more of your capital. Add in your profitable system keep a good money management system according to your emotion. Then you get more confidence and discipline again so you can add more or get funded with TopStepTraders.
The key is to be wise. Be wise with yourself. Listen to your emotions telling you "I'm doing an error.." Whats is this error ? Hmmmm I may be engage to big money. So ok let's try to train with less but with a few at least. You have to get something to loose in the market to know how to trade the beast. But start small. When you get emotions is because you don't respect rules or you didn't have confidence in your rules. So test your rules with small position then get confidence and at the end trade a bit bigger etc...
Best Regards,
P.
PS : I confess I'm French and so sorry to rip English language.
When you identified the long from oil @S2 and didn't take it- Why did you walk away? You missed the perfect entry so no other entry will suffice? The mkt began cooperating at 1 pm on the dot and was begging people to get in. More chances were available after the initial move. Where were you? I'm trying to help by asking you to examine your thoughts at the time. Did you stare at the screen and watch it work higher? We're you afraid because you didn't get the entry you wished you had gotten and felt it was too risky later?
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I came in with a mindset of not to trade again this week because I am going on vacation on Saturday and lot of work to do before that but couldn't resist took that short trade and closed it and started doing my work, looked back again to see what Europe end will bring us and saw the bounce but was totally not in a mood to trade again so didn't took it, then went out for lunch and didn't open my trade laptop
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If you ask 10 people for advice, you will get 10 different advices.
I can only tell you what helps me and it's up to you to pick what is relevant or applicable for you.
Having said that, I believe that P&L is the endresult of having the right discipline, the right mindsight, an edge, proper execution of entry/stop/exit management, etc.
So instead of focussing on the P&L, I believe in focussing on getting these basics right.
P&L is only the endresult and totally irrelevant. How about that, huh?
What helps me in getting the basics right is keeping stats on my discipline, the entry, stop, breakeven, adds and exits. Every month orso (after a reasonable amount of trades) I evaluate it, see if I've made progress and what to focus on next.
I don't look at stats like % winners, profit factor, etc. Instead, I look at the charts from hindsight view and collect data like: did price move indeed in my direction after entry, how many points did it move, was the stoploss too tight or not, how much did price move after my exit, etc. This helps me to straighten up the basics.
Regarding discipline, I'm not sure if you've read "Trading in the zone" of Mark Douglas (must read). At the end of his book he suggest doing an excercise on discipline. I've done the excercise and this was the moment that I got my discipline right.
It takes approx 20 days to implant a new behaviour. I use this knowledge on my kids also. They get a present once they do stuff like cleaning up their toys, sleeping in their own bed, etc. after 20 days in a row. If I make changes in my trading, I'll be doing the new, uncomfortable behaviour for 20 days and evaluate it then. Note that this approach does not work on wifes
I believe it was @TheTradeSlinger who stated in some thread: In order to hold longer, you will have to hold longer. Wise words and very true. In order to change behaviour: do it for 20 days, keep stats of you doing it and evaluate it after 20 days. That's how I make changes to myself.
We had a couple of pm's going on price risk versus information risk. Next to Douglas' excercise, my 2nd game changer was trading price levels instead of getting confirmation from price patterns. Our common friend and hero is not looking for confirmation in his entries either, he enters on price levels and accepts the risk of being wrong in exchange for a good entry location. You might consider skipping the confirmation-part in your trading for 20 days and see what it does on your entry efficiency.
One last thing, I notice you trade various instruments. All instruments have a different characteristics, for example: CL is a very thin market while ES is not. Your edge might not be applicable in all markets. Why not focus on 1 instrument and get the basics right?
I'm not here to tell you what to do, or not to do. I can only tell you what works for me sofar.
The above is in short what I do and what helps me.
Good luck with your personal journey.
I enjoy reading your posts and will be keeping a close eye on your journal!
GP
The following 6 users say Thank You to GruttePier for this post:
Thanks alot! Yes, I am aware of my position size that' why for swing trading I use etf's such as TZA, TNA, SPXL, SPXS, I generally don't about those position that much. TopstepTrader combine is one I am looking at right now but I don't if I can operate under those strict rules...
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Yes, I am aware of P&L syndrome but what to do I am human but getting better at it. This year I am trying to reach my profit goal for the week atleast 80% of the time so I give till June and see how I am doing, If I reach that goal that means consistency and that's key word for me.
I am also noticing getting distracted immensely with intra-day movements so every time I see huge rally or drop I start questioning myself swing trade or day trade? I ask myself what the heck is wrong with me struggling every day every minute, telling myself you fool look at your swing start how easy it is, I know it's hindsight but still that voice inside tells me when you will learn to hold longer. But when I go for swinging I get immense nervousness holding futures so switched to ETF for swinging but still that voice inside my head is like laughing at me saying you fool .
Yes, I read Trading in the zone and Disciplined Trader very nice books, helped me a lot but haven't done that exercise will look into it.
My MAIN ISSUE IS
INFORMATION vs PRICE risk thanks to you I see that now I will try to follow Mark's Douglas path starting from next week. Only issue is finding those price levels but looks like I am getting better at those.
I followed other instruments except NQ long enough to know the correlations so based on charts I will just try to enter positions with good RR but this year mainly switched to YM.
Again thanks for chiming in and helping me...
I am profitable this year (but would have made a lot more with less effort with little longer holds though..) except for last week's big loss (around $950) and another small loss week, I am thankful to everyone here on FIO.
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Damn my brain is wired to the core for mean reversion because I didn't even got off the ship saw the markets way extended on my 2hr timeframe retested and started dropping so shorted but realized I can't trade without proper context or seeing charts etc etc so closed the short for few YM points
Thanks sir, as I feared I do well in volatile markets and not that good in a trending markets mainly because of my mean reversion mentality and always thinking logical (i.e markets should be doing this not this etc etc.) but we all know markets can be irrational for a very very long time.
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Wow! I dig myself a nice hole on the last day of the week...
Edit: All my morning positions would have made money damn...I deserve this because I deviated from the plan.
Today is simply not my day because indices are selling and I am currently short oil from 35.70 that's just not moving usually it's the other way round...FML
Looks like we are at a point where the oil correlation doesn't matter anymore or is oil just playing games because of options expiration? Anyway my stop is in place so I will accept whatever the fate is
Market (Dax/Dow in my case) can gap big either way from where we are right now, imho. Distance travelled North or South might surprise a lot, it never has been about oil or any of the usual reasons given, they are all their own markets, they appear in sync only when they want to.
Cheers
Travel Well
The following 3 users say Thank You to ratfink for this post:
I am about to shutdown for the month after consecutive losses..I hate this and I find myself in this situation while shorting so shorting is not my forte (I know that but still my reversal mentality doesn't listen).
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I hope everything will be alright. Trading is sometimes pushing our limits to some extreme level. Be careful to trade only money you are open to give away. You won't be emotionally affected and be able to trade rationally. Think about it when you'll come back.
USOIL had reversed up with a nice double bottoms pattern. I don't how long it will last. Uptrend seems strong but already on its way.
Best Regards,
P.
PS : Sorry for my English. I'm French
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Minimized my losses by some 8 ES points. I wouldaaa covered all losses but hesitant to hold multiple contracts...anyway this kind of trading impulse trading is done for me...
After trading like a fool for last two day's even-though I am right in my prediction still lost so I plan to take trades
at different pre-defined levels only and no impulse trading and only three trades per day.
Driving Force - NQ to the down, OIL and Russel to the up (Look for weakness in these two)
Day prediction - Going to be trend down day, wait for confirmation on $VOLSPD and SELL bounces at KEY levels ONLY
After trading like a fool for last two day's even-though I am right in my prediction still lost so I plan to take trades
at different pre-defined levels only and no impulse trading and only three trades per day.
Driving Force - NQ to the down, OIL and Russel to the up (Look for weakness in these two)
Day prediction - Going to be trend down day, wait for confirmation on $VOLSPD so SELL bounces at KEY levels ONLY
No trades today, I just need to layout the plan, execute the plan fearlessly, now I am getting the hold of context properly. I couldn't execute my plan because of shorting involved in it as I got smacked two day in a row shorting.
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I advice you to work on higher timeframe. Short Term is for Computer's HFT. Reduce size, calm down, and trade long term view. Start easy. It's the best way to learn discipline. If you have too much things to do you can't respect your trading plan. I've got same issues. See if you've traded long term view you would still be shorting on USOIL and be able to take some profits.
Regards,
P.
The following user says Thank You to Pharmakon for this post:
Not quite sure I understand your question- I think you are saying the market did what you thought it would do and took out the key levels you had marked before you began trading? It would be very helpful to post a (clean) chart describing your thoughts.
Also- have you considered simplifying your system down to a couple of things and ignoring others until you have a good grasp? It appears you get a lot of signals from a lot of places that cloud your mind. Maybe go back to basics:
1) Define Key Support & Resistance Levels 1 timeframe up from that of which you trade (I use a 30 min chart)
2) Define the trend 1 timeframe up from that of which you trade
3) Mark Y_High, Low, Close and todays open on your chart as well as Y_VWAP and ADR_H and ADR_L for context
4) Use VWAP and the bands to identify what type of day we are having so you can put the current price in context of the day
5) Keep a chart of tick and vix- note how price reacts to extremes and divergences
This is more than a lot of people need to trade successfully but gives all the info you need..In time- you can look at all the other stuff-but try to keep it simple for a couple months. No need to track TF, YM NQ, ZB, Oil, JPY, volume spreads, crack spreads, the value of a bitcoin in Taiwanese currency using a carry trade off the Aussie until you have mastered your psychology and the basics. Take it easy- you are not going to miss anything by not looking at all this crap- relax and trade whats in front of you from a clean chart with no distractions.
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Yes, I laid out my plan in the morning and posted it here with price levels and went to sleep but saw price already hit those levels perfectly but I didn't put orders because I wanted to wait till the open and see how UVOL-DVOL respond. So how to deal with these scenarios i.e levels hit as per plan but you are not it the trade?
My mind usually looks for opposite trade once I missed my entries...THIS IS EXACTLY MY ISSUE, I AM TRYING HARD TO FIX THIS BUT STILL DOING THE MISTAKES.
I use everything you mentioned above on all instrument just to see where each one stands, only additional internal I track is $VOLSPD (UVOL-DVOL) to find out is it going to be a range day or trend day or reversal day.
Not much you can do once your levels are hit other than go to plan B (further levels, reversal, etc) Once they were hit were there opportunities to go for them again (rinse repeat), did you have deeper targets, did you expect a reversal at those levels and was it time to look for clues to get long/short the opposite direction. Often I think like this- xx is my initial target; if its touched I want to see how price behaves for the next 30 minutes ( I may have reversed or just gone flat). After enough time has passed to form some valid conclusions I kind of have a new thesis. Maybe the retrace went to VWAP and Ive got another shot at the low for example but I try not to get too married to any one idea until I see proof that it is valid. i.e. tight stops- make it take it, etc
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I know you give weight to VOLSPD and it is a good internal to track. Most of the time there will be conflicting signals in the market, question is how do you pick a scenario that has highest probability to work ?
Here is what I was following today morning bearish aspects
1) TICK was mostly below 0, failed to make a +600 until 11:08 EST
2) NYSE spreads was trending lower
3) CL dropping, yen and 10 yr at highs
on the bullish side
1) NQ was having strong divergence at the lows , esp if you look 11 AM EST low in ES and NQ
2) SP spreads was having strong divergence.
Even thou there was bearish signals, I was not expecting a washout in the morning. Usually for trend up/down days, all markets move in convergence, indicating wide support for the move. ES stopped at VPOC from 3/3 to the tick.
Bottom-line is dont limit yourself to using just one aspect of the market. Try to get a read on the market by comparing and contrasting various signals. There will be confusing signals and if you can identify the higher probability scenario, go ahead and trade, if not stay out.
The following 6 users say Thank You to rahulgopi for this post:
Yes excellent points, thanks to all you guys now I know what to look at and what is important and what is not important at what times.
Look at this VOLSPD's last four days, UP volume is pathetic when price is trying hard to move up. Look at today's DOWN volume and specially at the end of the day. When VOLSPD is making lower lows all day price is not going to sustain that's my observation and I guess there is some stat in home work thread related to this behavior. That's why I am trying to follow this but you are right we need to take everything into consideration before making a decision.
The following 2 users say Thank You to bmtrading9 for this post:
We look at volspd slightly different, essentially calculate the breadth (%) from up and down volume. Here also I look for divergence at top and bottom to see a particular move is supported by breadth. The reality is internals will show conflicting signals most of the days, as a trader you have to read thru that and identify a workable scenario that has the highest probability as per your analysis and trade that. Trading is all about identifying these little nuances and capitalize on that.
The following 4 users say Thank You to rahulgopi for this post:
The reason I wrote "crack spreads, etc" is that you are always talking about VOLSPD- and here immediately you went back to it... Just for kicks, try to not look at this for a week. I really feel like you place way too much weight on this and need to move past it as it could be hurting your read on the market instead of helping. I have never once even looked at it so I am certain you can trade without it
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If I think about it you are right sir, because of my information confirmation mind I am leaning on it too much that's the reason why I missed the move overnight (also my previous losses contributed to it).
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I've had days were I let internals keep me on the wrong side of the market all day- showing me glimmers of hope every so often only to be washed away little by little as the chart worked against me and one opportunity after another disappeared. Same with placing too much emphasis on correlations and other markets. I've learned that if price disagrees and is on its own path, don't fight it because of some alternative measure. If you just can't stand the conflicting information at the time, get flat and wait; Else, ride the trend.
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Short's will be short lived when internal are not in-line damn...I should have know this better by now.
Shorted YM at 17020 before the drop and stupidly added another contract at 17962 (stupid stupid) thinking this is it, it's going to break down but it didn't so out scalping for 20 YM points.
Edit: If we can't beat it just join on the opposite side? but we are very near to inflection point to consider longs...
Edit: Joined the otherside, If this doesn't break by now, I guess they are waiting for ECB and also OIL is too strong....damn flipped again...stop in place walking away
We are in important congestion zones on both sides of the Atlantic, trading will ease when they shift, don't try to force it. Sometimes just taking a break or doing something as a diversion and then coming back in a few days is the best route.
Travel Well
The following 3 users say Thank You to ratfink for this post:
When the entire range was taken out in 4 minutes and 20k contracts late this morning because oil retraced from 2SD to 1SD it seemed like writing on the wall- walk away or play VWAP band pinball as choke35 calls it
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I know right!! this damn thing totally confusing me when I miss entries based on my levels it works perfectly and makes me wonder why didn't I take that, when I take it I am getting pounded. I really should sit back and think wtf I am doing and how I did it properly in the year start. March has been a bad month for me. At least you are taking every signal I am trying to mix discretionary trading and going no where.
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Maybe this might helpful when we have flat wma things will get wild. In fact for any moving averages we can notice this behavior (just my observation).
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Wow! what a waste and ugly of a month this is. I need some miracle to get out of the hole. This morning everything was perfectly lined up to buy ES at 1996 or 1998 just couldn't pull the trigger and tried to short it at ADR_H's this mentality got to change. Just automate it and leave the system for entries but exits manually manage them.
To review I started my year very good but faltered in last two weeks why? I let my old habit of oh look it's too high so short it mentality take over me. It's not the end of world so will try to take it very slow and go back to basics.
Nothing today, I am trying install virtual machine on my laptop to test few things. I am liking this 25 min P&F charts for cleaner look. I don't know if I can backtest with P&F in Multicharts. Hindsight is always right so I shouldaaa hold on to my CL short on Friday but last week when I hold over the weekend I got stopped out exact to the tick so I didn't want to go through that over the weekend.
I am trying to finish my setup of virtual machine and see what happens next.
It feels like they are selling in disguise if you look at internals probably waiting for FOMC on Wednesday for next move. I feel it will be choppy till then but slightly favoring to the upside.
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Seriously! this market got to be kidding me. Glad I took of my short at overnight lows but the way they sold overnight
I thought today it's going to be a trend down but not why I must ask myslef, what is driving this market after the o/n puking?
Might be two reasons 1. Options expiration/Quad witching 2. Oil.
If I look at UVOL pathetic but hey what does volume know right? Right now we are building divergences let's see
how this folds next week. Just a reminder to self trade what I see NOT what I think is going to happen.
I am looking at my new P&F figure and wondering is there a short at highs?
All in all my worst month continuous. I did fine this week but no where near my target, taking baby steps once again. Now I am scared to death to hold anything overnight and especially shorting. I am considering requesting my broker to disable my sell short capabilities. Anyway I need to remember what are my goals are for week and stick to it. I did scalped CL twice and felt good because I could reach my goal in few mins and move on...I wish this is that easy
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Wow! My brain is going to explode with all the thoughts going on, it looks like I am thinking too much and taking too much stress regarding this trading.
On one hand swing trading gives the opportunity to capture big moves by holding for longer periods but at the same time PAIN comes with it it also enormous specially if you are using futures or any leveraged instruments.
Scalping or Day Trading looks easy but you need to be robotic in your actions i.e no EMOTIONS just press buttons if signal present else NO button press and doing it with multiple contracts on highly volatile instruments such as CL is no EASY TASK. But there is also CONTEXT coming into picture which signals to take and which signals needs to be omitted?
As of today I am grinding this short on QM for bigger trade towards 38 but it is not getting easy with all the volatile moves (Almost stopped out on that rip). At the same time I scalped CL for 15 ticks but missed that big move towards the upwards.
I am leaning towards SC because every single thing I want to use is available out of the box but that initial learning curve is frustrating. Another frustrating part is no internet for last two days which is making me to think a lot and do less (it's frying my brain )
The following user says Thank You to bmtrading9 for this post:
Totally agree on the swing vs. intraday thing. Personally I use ETFs and leveraged ETFs for my swing trading. I can go without even looking at them for a whole day. (my idea of swing is a little longer term than most). I find I like the leverage for capturing intraday moves or taking a stab at an overnight entry that I feel will set up the next day nicely. Going to sleep with swing and position trades is one thing but adding essentially 2-3x the nominal value of those positions could do some serious damage to my annual total portfolio returns with one bad news event while I'm dreaming of boats; and taking a smaller position in the futures market just seems to be a waste of time... Maybe we could find the middle ground but I don't know that it exists in my compartmentalized head....
As far as the "robotic actions" are concerned- after some amount of time you just do things without thinking about it. I have honestly looked down at my position and said, I thought I only had xx contracts and then I realize I just added because we retraced to 1SD on a trend day or something along those lines. So many things become second nature that it is sometimes hard to explain to others why you are in a position (I find on the spoos thread I don't give complete details cuz I just think everyone sees what I see) @rahulgopi does a great job of explaining things very thoroughly and when he comments I often say to myself- oh yeah, that's why I am xyz. It just takes time and repetition- you will get there. You are correct that context helps- it eliminates fear for me 100% as I just focus on what's happening and what I want to do next. Today, someone mentioned that a trade we were in might go south- I had not even thought about that until he mentioned it and I felt myself beginning to watch every tick- stick with context and day structure and you'll be amazed what you can do with your trades....
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That's the ultimate goal. I was in that trade on CL from 41.15 (near VWAP) and got out at 41.30 then the up move happened and the down move almost immediately. I can only enter with one contract and can't loose what I have in the bag.
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Haven't been trading much recently. Thursday's run-up was impressive and typical of a move that happens before the return of volatility (Another clue is flattening of MA's). I am not sure what would happen after three days break, analysis will be re done, algo's will be re-written etc. etc.
Typically I want to see the breadth increasing with that end of day rally if it didn't improve then something might be suspicious not saying short but be cautious on longs is my approach today on ES/YM.
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Missed my long entry this morning while dropping kid at school so what did I do? Shorted YM @17400 with stop at 17500 for a swing...I broke two rules in this trade
1. My self imposed no shorting rule
2. Self imposed no holding overnight rule (not yet broken but that's the plan for now)
Reason for my short...Less volume on UP side and breadth deteriorating, weak oil but near ADR Lows so expecting a bounce there.
Edit: Wow! I didn't know Yellen was speaking today but anyway I deserve this because I broke my rules...and still breaking it by holding this short purely based on no volume to support this move
Edit: Closed YM short lost $500. That was very fast 2 mins, had chance to minimize the loss but didn't take that chance. Anyway sticking to my rule of no overnight position.
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Still looking at those volume spreads eh? So much pain for no reason- a while back I found Cumulative Delta Volume was so inconsistent I removed it from all my charts because it clouded my mind- "why is there not as much volume at the bid on this push?" I would ask myself and eventually close out a trade or worse- take a trade... I promise one last time- you do not need that information to be a consistently profitable trader!
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No trades today but I hit my imaginary targets (lol). I am down with allergies, also alot more going on at work front so not finding much time, whenever I get time move would have already happened...I am waiting this March to be over, lost over half of profits already.
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On a P&F chart a column of O's exceeding a previos column of O's is called a sell signal ( vice versa for a buy) but I advise to always look to the left and see where it's coming from... For example - is it a continuation( successive) signal? Was there a big base that the signal came after? What was the trend leading up to the signal? Is the signal coming from a previos area of S/R from the past?
It's important to "tune" your chart to capture the volatility you want to trade for a particular market. I use two for day trading ( one with a larger box size for when things get choppy on the smaller box sized one) so that I can see the forest through the trees- also, when they are both in agreement- I had better be trading in that direction or I better have a damn good reason to be counter trend bcuz chances are I'm not seeing things very clearly or just being stubborn if I'm not.
Short answer is- Yes, you are reading the charts properly
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Based on above P&F charts and other parameters I took short on YM at 17580 and covered at 17530 (ufff something positive after so many days). I should have take Oil short also 38 but thought it is oversold.
Edit: covered mainly due to pending jobs report.
Edit: Seriously market always fools happened twice for my swings once for oil short before and YM now.
Based on internals and availability of time I will try to sell rips at strategic points like pivots, OR top/bottom, VWAP etc. I am not good in shorting so it's kind of a scary thought.
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"I used to fade all the weaknesses at the starting stages of my journey with YTC and I was doomed. Then, I started fading weaknesses against the future bias and the losses decreased, but I was not profitable yet."
Ahhhh moment...
"Then I started fading weaknesses in the direction of the future bias at the price levels given by the market with its past data. I started getting profits."
Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk
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I see only three bars that kept you from being profitable, and two of them are small enough that they may have just been due to chance.
Even if not, there probably are specific things that happened in each of those days that, if addressed, would make a difference going forward.
There is something you can do to make a change.
I hope that you will find it soon. The way to debug or otherwise fix anything is to go step by step, changing things one at a time until you get it. There is no doubt at all that you can.
Good luck with this, and keep your spirits up. It is possible to handle anything, although it may take its own sweet time to do it.
Bob.
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I did good in January and ok in Feb mainly because of volatility. Majority of my profits came from longs in January and Feb not by shorting even though counter trend trades at that time I placed orders at strategic levels such as pivots, ADR_L and sometimes 1.5ADR_L and I got bailed out because of volatility. That same principle didn't work in March and this is zillionth time I am learning every time I think this time might be different but market laughs at me
Anyway these days are I am actually doing ok because I am bailing out when I am wrong not holding on to the loosing trades (those three days were mix of revenge trades and blindside shots by market).
The following 3 users say Thank You to bmtrading9 for this post:
). But overall profitable for the week.
.
