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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #441 (permalink)
Elite Member
Paris France
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
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bmtrading9 View Post
My bias/context today

After trading like a fool for last two day's even-though I am right in my prediction still lost so I plan to take trades
at different pre-defined levels only and no impulse trading and only three trades per day.

Driving Force - NQ to the down, OIL and Russel to the up (Look for weakness in these two)

Day prediction - Going to be trend down day, wait for confirmation on $VOLSPD and SELL bounces at KEY levels ONLY

Reasons - Breadth deteriorating, Resistance on daily charts, divergence in $VOLSPD at higher time frame

Key levels for shorts - YM (16967 and 17013) and ES (1992 and 1996)

Key levels for longs/reversals - Look for support levels on TF for now I see 1082 then 1074 area.


Hi BMtrading9 !


Why do you think Oil and Russel will going up ? I think they soon probably retrace there last bullish channel.


Best Regards,
M.

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  #442 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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@Pharmakon I said they are the one leading this rally so it's better to watch them for clues or maybe bonds also very important.

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  #443 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
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Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
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bmtrading9 View Post
My bias/context today

After trading like a fool for last two day's even-though I am right in my prediction still lost so I plan to take trades
at different pre-defined levels only and no impulse trading and only three trades per day.

Driving Force - NQ to the down, OIL and Russel to the up (Look for weakness in these two)

Day prediction - Going to be trend down day, wait for confirmation on $VOLSPD so SELL bounces at KEY levels ONLY

Reasons - Breadth deteriorating, Resistance on daily charts and divergence in $VOLSPD at higher time frame

Key levels for shorts - YM (16967 and 17013) and ES (1992 and 1996)

Key levels for longs/reversals - Look for support levels on TF for now I see 1082 then 1074 area.

Seriously! did price hit my levels already what should we do in these scenarios @Inletcap sir

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  #444 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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No trades today, I just need to layout the plan, execute the plan fearlessly, now I am getting the hold of context properly. I couldn't execute my plan because of shorting involved in it as I got smacked two day in a row shorting.

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  #445 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
No trades today, I just need to layout the plan, execute the plan fearlessly, now I am getting the hold of context properly. I couldn't execute my plan because of shorting involved in it as I got smacked two day in a row shorting.

Hi BmTrading9 !

I advice you to work on higher timeframe. Short Term is for Computer's HFT. Reduce size, calm down, and trade long term view. Start easy. It's the best way to learn discipline. If you have too much things to do you can't respect your trading plan. I've got same issues. See if you've traded long term view you would still be shorting on USOIL and be able to take some profits.

Regards,
P.

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  #446 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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bmtrading9 View Post
Seriously! did price hit my levels already what should we do in these scenarios @Inletcap sir

Not quite sure I understand your question- I think you are saying the market did what you thought it would do and took out the key levels you had marked before you began trading? It would be very helpful to post a (clean) chart describing your thoughts.

Also- have you considered simplifying your system down to a couple of things and ignoring others until you have a good grasp? It appears you get a lot of signals from a lot of places that cloud your mind. Maybe go back to basics:
1) Define Key Support & Resistance Levels 1 timeframe up from that of which you trade (I use a 30 min chart)
2) Define the trend 1 timeframe up from that of which you trade
3) Mark Y_High, Low, Close and todays open on your chart as well as Y_VWAP and ADR_H and ADR_L for context
4) Use VWAP and the bands to identify what type of day we are having so you can put the current price in context of the day
5) Keep a chart of tick and vix- note how price reacts to extremes and divergences

This is more than a lot of people need to trade successfully but gives all the info you need..In time- you can look at all the other stuff-but try to keep it simple for a couple months. No need to track TF, YM NQ, ZB, Oil, JPY, volume spreads, crack spreads, the value of a bitcoin in Taiwanese currency using a carry trade off the Aussie until you have mastered your psychology and the basics. Take it easy- you are not going to miss anything by not looking at all this crap- relax and trade whats in front of you from a clean chart with no distractions.

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  #447 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
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Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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Inletcap View Post
Not quite sure I understand your question- I think you are saying the market did what you thought it would do and took out the key levels you had marked before you began trading? It would be very helpful to post a (clean) chart describing your thoughts.

Also- have you considered simplifying your system down to a couple of things and ignoring others until you have a good grasp? It appears you get a lot of signals from a lot of places that cloud your mind. Maybe go back to basics:
1) Define Key Support & Resistance Levels 1 timeframe up from that of which you trade (I use a 30 min chart)
2) Define the trend 1 timeframe up from that of which you trade
3) Mark Y_High, Low, Close and todays open on your chart as well as Y_VWAP and ADR_H and ADR_L for context
4) Use VWAP and the bands to identify what type of day we are having so you can put the current price in context of the day
5) Keep a chart of tick and vix- note how price reacts to extremes and divergences

This is more than a lot of people need to trade successfully but gives all the info you need..In time- you can look at all the other stuff-but try to keep it simple for a couple months. No need to track TF, YM NQ, ZB, Oil, JPY, volume spreads, crack spreads, the value of a bitcoin in Taiwanese currency using a carry trade off the Aussie until you have mastered your psychology and the basics. Take it easy- you are not going to miss anything by not looking at all this crap- relax and trade whats in front of you from a clean chart with no distractions.

LOL, crack spread?

Yes, I laid out my plan in the morning and posted it here with price levels and went to sleep but saw price already hit those levels perfectly but I didn't put orders because I wanted to wait till the open and see how UVOL-DVOL respond. So how to deal with these scenarios i.e levels hit as per plan but you are not it the trade?

My mind usually looks for opposite trade once I missed my entries...THIS IS EXACTLY MY ISSUE, I AM TRYING HARD TO FIX THIS BUT STILL DOING THE MISTAKES.

I use everything you mentioned above on all instrument just to see where each one stands, only additional internal I track is $VOLSPD (UVOL-DVOL) to find out is it going to be a range day or trend day or reversal day.

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  #448 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Murrells Inlet SC
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Posts: 9,158 since Dec 2012
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bmtrading9 View Post
LOL, crack spread?

Yes, I laid out my plan in the morning and posted it here with price levels and went to sleep but saw price already hit those levels perfectly but I didn't put orders because I wanted to wait till the open and see how UVOL-DVOL respond. So how to deal with these scenarios i.e levels hit as per plan but you are not it the trade?

My mind usually looks for opposite trade once I missed my entries...THIS IS EXACTLY MY ISSUE, I AM TRYING HARD TO FIX THIS BUT STILL DOING THE MISTAKES.

I use everything you mentioned above on all instrument just to see where each one stands, only additional internal I track is $VOLSPD (UVOL-DVOL) to find out is it going to be a range day or trend day or reversal day.

Not much you can do once your levels are hit other than go to plan B (further levels, reversal, etc) Once they were hit were there opportunities to go for them again (rinse repeat), did you have deeper targets, did you expect a reversal at those levels and was it time to look for clues to get long/short the opposite direction. Often I think like this- xx is my initial target; if its touched I want to see how price behaves for the next 30 minutes ( I may have reversed or just gone flat). After enough time has passed to form some valid conclusions I kind of have a new thesis. Maybe the retrace went to VWAP and Ive got another shot at the low for example but I try not to get too married to any one idea until I see proof that it is valid. i.e. tight stops- make it take it, etc

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  #449 (permalink)
Elite Member
milpitas, ca, usa
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Tradestation, Ameritrade
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bmtrading9 View Post
LOL, crack spread?

Yes, I laid out my plan in the morning and posted it here with price levels and went to sleep but saw price already hit those levels perfectly but I didn't put orders because I wanted to wait till the open and see how UVOL-DVOL respond. So how to deal with these scenarios i.e levels hit as per plan but you are not it the trade?

My mind usually looks for opposite trade once I missed my entries...THIS IS EXACTLY MY ISSUE, I AM TRYING HARD TO FIX THIS BUT STILL DOING THE MISTAKES.

I use everything you mentioned above on all instrument just to see where each one stands, only additional internal I track is $VOLSPD (UVOL-DVOL) to find out is it going to be a range day or trend day or reversal day.

I know you give weight to VOLSPD and it is a good internal to track. Most of the time there will be conflicting signals in the market, question is how do you pick a scenario that has highest probability to work ?

Here is what I was following today morning
bearish aspects
1) TICK was mostly below 0, failed to make a +600 until 11:08 EST
2) NYSE spreads was trending lower
3) CL dropping, yen and 10 yr at highs

on the bullish side
1) NQ was having strong divergence at the lows , esp if you look 11 AM EST low in ES and NQ
2) SP spreads was having strong divergence.

Even thou there was bearish signals, I was not expecting a washout in the morning. Usually for trend up/down days, all markets move in convergence, indicating wide support for the move. ES stopped at VPOC from 3/3 to the tick.

Bottom-line is dont limit yourself to using just one aspect of the market. Try to get a read on the market by comparing and contrasting various signals. There will be confusing signals and if you can identify the higher probability scenario, go ahead and trade, if not stay out.

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  #450 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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rahulgopi View Post
I know you give weight to VOLSPD and it is a good internal to track. Most of the time there will be conflicting signals in the market, question is how do you pick a scenario that has highest probability to work ?

Here is what I was following today morning
bearish aspects
1) TICK was mostly below 0, failed to make a +600 until 11:08 EST
2) NYSE spreads was trending lower
3) CL dropping, yen and 10 yr at highs

on the bullish side
1) NQ was having strong divergence at the lows , esp if you look 11 AM EST low in ES and NQ
2) SP spreads was having strong divergence.

Even thou there was bearish signals, I was not expecting a washout in the morning. Usually for trend up/down days, all markets move in convergence, indicating wide support for the move. ES stopped at VPOC from 3/3 to the tick.

Bottom-line is dont limit yourself to using just one aspect of the market. Try to get a read on the market by comparing and contrasting various signals. There will be confusing signals and if you can identify the higher probability scenario, go ahead and trade, if not stay out.

Yes excellent points, thanks to all you guys now I know what to look at and what is important and what is not important at what times.

Look at this VOLSPD's last four days, UP volume is pathetic when price is trying hard to move up. Look at today's DOWN volume and specially at the end of the day. When VOLSPD is making lower lows all day price is not going to sustain that's my observation and I guess there is some stat in home work thread related to this behavior. That's why I am trying to follow this but you are right we need to take everything into consideration before making a decision.

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