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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
Started: by bmtrading9 Views / Replies:30,089 / 764
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #341 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
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bmtrading9 View Post
Didn't do anything...It looks subconsciously fear started creeping in again not to give up profits and started thinking about trend change and too much uncertainty going on right now. This is when Auto-Trading will come handy once you define your method but even that auto method must change as per conditions of the market else I will be taken to woodshed AUTOMATICALLY...

Sold oil QM at 29.65 from 28.70, will look for re-entry again...sold TNA also for good some 5%. I will try to look to reenter again on both of these.

Edit: Best week so far for this year :-).


Last edited by bmtrading9; January 21st, 2016 at 12:17 PM.
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  #342 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Wow! this is what I don't like when I sold my positions and that seems to be good idea in short term but some Central banker intervenes and market gaps 200 points, seems same story is repeating...what do you guys do in these situations? How do you say this is a real sustainable trend change? Will you be buying dips like before?

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  #343 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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bmtrading9 View Post
Wow! this is what I don't like when I sold my positions and that seems to be good idea in short term but some Central banker intervenes and market gaps 200 points, seems same story is repeating...what do you guys do in these situations? How do you say this is a real sustainable trend change? Will you be buying dips like before?

Now the big UNCERTAINTY is can I switch back to bigger time-frame? maybe not, because day range is still more than 300 points on YM, maybe this whole year will be like this until some very CONCRETE push from central bankers like QE and (or) confirmation that no rate hikes etc.

I think this weeks close is very important. Breadth started to increase so ideally for me to consider change in bigger picture would be create a divergence by making new low, will they let it happen that's a big question...

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  #344 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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"Very important principle: Peak performance is about maximizing strengths & positives, not just reducing negatives. "-- Dr. Brett Steenbarger

I guess this what @tigertrader goes by, when you know you right then try to maximize it by using leverage or being in the trade for long etc. etc..

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  #345 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Broker/Data: IB
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Futures Edge on FIO
Have a nice and safe weekend...cannot complain had good week left out bulk of oil move because of my over thinking, maybe right because that's how market has been lately.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #346 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
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Week3

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Previous week analysis, I will divide my trades into three sections for easier analysis

Part-1

Method - Sell at ADR_H, if I missed it wait for confirmation using divergence on SMI on 25 min char
Execution -

ADR_H was at 16160 area...price touched exactly 16160 and moved down but I missed the trade since we are
in a down trend I thought it is fine to jump in the trade at 16110 or so without waiting of confirmation.
Price started to move immediatly against me so I waited and added another contract at 16140 now I have two contract
with average of 16130 and I put a stop of 100 point stop and guess what my stop hit and price immediatly reversed.

I realized price immediatly reversed after stopping me out so I entered short again at 16179 with trailing stop of 100 points
but covered it at 16144 because that fear of earlier loss is lingering in my mind I want to minimize the earlier loss

Guess what all the hell break loose after I covered, would have been nice 500 point gain on that short.

Part-2 and Part-3

Method - Buy ADR_L

Execution- Again same mistakes as above, didn't wait for confirmation then tried chasing and
finally decided to hold at 15400 saying to myself...market already dropped 500 points and I will have my stop at another ADR i.e 400 points and asked myself how many times DOW dropped 900 points in a day just maybe two days and
somehow it worked. Again at the end saw oil breaking out and bought YM and sold for another 100 points

Biggest mistake was to sold oil even though I bought it for long term swing trade...

So in summary good week for could have been all-time record week.

This week I have to see what kind of method I can use. I have to admit I am afraid of shorting because of my previous experiences but I am also aware this time is different.

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  #347 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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Market is confused, I am confused and feared of giving up of profits...I should have been up by a nice sum from my short instead ended up with a loss of 20 YM points. Still debating to buy crude or wait? May be I will try to buy crude at 29.40 because this is catching a falling knife.

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  #348 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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bmtrading9 View Post
Market is confused, I am confused and feared of giving up of profits...I should have been up by a nice sum from my short instead ended up with a loss of 20 YM points. Still debating to buy crude or wait? May be I will try to buy crude at 29.40 because this is catching a falling knife.

Reshorted at 15951 and covered 15920 and it got dumped

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Edit: Tried a long and got burned.


Last edited by bmtrading9; January 25th, 2016 at 03:36 PM.
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  #349 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

My long got stopped out last night and dumped but don't know why market did a Vcovery, one thing is clear I need to get my head straight and stop over trading unless a clear opportunity presents it self...this kind of Vcovery makes me to automate my process (working on that).

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  #350 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



bmtrading9 View Post
My long got stopped out last night and dumped but don't know why market did a Vcovery, one thing is clear I need to get my head straight and stop over trading unless a clear opportunity presents it self...this kind of Vcovery makes me to automate my process (working on that).

So market stops me out of my long and went up straight 15640 to 16090. I am short from 16040 with stop, if I get stopped out that's it done for week. Don't want give back too much in one week

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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