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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #301 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
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No trades yet, something is wrong with because I am trying to get that perfect entry and not realizing trading is all about probabilities...Only good thing is I am able predict the direction and stay away from going against it but bad thing is not able to profit from my knowledge...this week I might not be able to reach my goal.

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  #302 (permalink)
Elite Member
Memphis TN
 
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bmtrading9 View Post
No trades yet, something is wrong with because I am trying to get that perfect entry and not realizing trading is all about probabilities...Only good thing is I am able predict the direction and stay away from going against it but bad thing is not able to profit from my knowledge...this week I might not be able to reach my goal.

No such thing as a perfect entry. Just get in where you get in and if it's not where you wanted say f### it and drive on. Always be moving forward. Times like this, with all this volatility and movement, you have to exploit. This is where you fatten up for lean times.

Someday, and that day may never come, I'll call upon you to do a service for me.
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  #303 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Birmingham UK
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Pariah Carey View Post
No such thing as a perfect entry. Just get in where you get in and if it's not where you wanted say f### it and drive on. Always be moving forward. Times like this, with all this volatility and movement, you have to exploit. This is where you fatten up for lean times.

Indeed, but I'd say it's just as important to survive days like these so that we can be around to profit from the steady days that occur a hundred times more often.

Travel Well
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  #304 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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ratfink View Post
Indeed, but I'd say it's just as important to survive days like these so that we can be around to profit from the steady days that occur a hundred times more often.

Funny and worst part is I wanted these kind of volatility when it was not there and when it comes my brain freezes.

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  #305 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Birmingham UK
 
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bmtrading9 View Post
Funny and worst part is I wanted these kind of volatility when it was not there and when it comes my brain freezes.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

You and me both.

Travel Well
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  #306 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
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http://sisulab.com/2015/12/29/why-we-fear-hypponen/

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  #307 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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http://www.forbes.com/sites/brettsteenbarger/2016/01/11/living-fearlessly-by-facing-our-fears/#140a586e7a4e46cc468b7a4e

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  #308 (permalink)
Elite Member
Luxembourg, Luxembourg
 
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bmtrading9 View Post
Funny and worst part is I wanted these kind of volatility when it was not there and when it comes my brain freezes.

Pure speculation on my part, but I suspect Ed Seykota would override his systems whenever volatility got too high. Now, he trades long term trends, but the effects of heightened volatility are the same.
  1. Volatility presents a lot of opportunity if you are on the right side of the trend, but you better cut your losses fast if you are on the wrong side of it.
  2. A very volatile market makes it more likely that you will be stopped out even if you get direction right.
  3. To compensate for the additional risk of being stopped out, you could move your stops out further.
  4. Of course once your stops are further away, you need to scale back your size to get your risk back to its prior levels.
  5. With the smaller size, markets need to move further in order for you to make a decent gain with respect to your risk.

Based on the above, you can either trade same size with the same stop, but need to remember the pitfalls, or you can reduce scale back size and use wider stops. To me it just seems that trading in a high volatility environment just not justify the downsides. Of course, high volatility could precede a major crash and that represents the best opportunity to make a lot of money in a short amount of time, but unless you time it exactly right, you run an elevated risk of being stopped out or dying from death by a thousand cuts before the actual crash happens.

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  #309 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Birmingham UK
 
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bmtrading9 View Post
Why We Fear ? The Sisu Lab

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

Thanks for this, just discovered Kindle Cloud reader, added it to Chrome and bought the book. In minutes. Fearlessly.


Cheers

Travel Well
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  #310 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
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Wow! What a reversal wish I would have been infront of my computer but I am waiting on daily signal to get confirmed on this move, it seems if we close above 1905 on ES it will get confirmed let me see...

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