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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

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  #201 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
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Shorted gold via YG, stop would be close above yesterdays high.

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  #202 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Shorted gold via YG, stop would be close above yesterdays high.

Stopped on gold.

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  #203 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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So after all my GOLD bullish is not crazy....too bad I got stopped out twice on that trade...Anyway still plenty of juice is left (I think) so the plan is to wait for a pull back to 200 DMA and enter with lot of support underneath I can take that chance.

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  #204 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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After fiddling with few day trades today, I am flat for the day on day trading...still have NOV SPY puts and it seems like market will NEVER EVER come down. I will go long if at all we get any dip. Tomorrow is option expiration day so maybe after that we will get a pullback....now everyone and their dog is bullish and sees 2040 - 2060 area so let's see if we go there or not...

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  #205 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Few changes I have noticed in my trading is getting better at reading internals and not adding to the core loosing position...I have been in this freaking position just keeping contracts to my loosing positions...I am still learning to flip quickly.

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Market Wizard
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Gold is bouncing between VPOC of ten years and 200 DMA. Not sure what to make of this it's impressive every dip to 200 DMA is getting bought. As much as I want to go long on this gold, I am shaken due to my ES trading so not getting confidence.





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  #207 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Not sure what to make of this monthly chart maybe I need to look at some other charts (Russell, NQ etc.) to get clear picture
It's amazing the every dip is getting bought...

Weekly PPO oscillator not out of woods but that's a lagging indicator

Daily chart gives little picture, we can see small divergence but still can go and touch 100 DSMA, 200 DSMA and even VPOC of last two years.

I am totally confused of this action. Leaning towards the touch of 200 DSMA on SPX...Fundamentals/earnings are bad still this is going higher and higher...as clearly predicted in my previous post's if everyone wants something to happen market will not make your wish come true...market is here to take your money....now after yesterday's ramp everyone wants it go higher and higher so that makes it tough but also at the same time they want to run the stops and I assume lot of stops out there above 200 DSMA.

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Market Wizard
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This all you want ...nothing else

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/04/trading-techniques-collection-of.html?m=1

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  #209 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Another one
https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2014/09/finding-opportunity-in-stock-market.html?m=1

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  #210 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2015/10/why-so-many-traders-lose.html?m=1

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  #211 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I will short if SPX closes below 2027 EOD

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  #212 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Damn I should be shorting if price closes below pivot 2030 on SPX but tomorrow's ECB meeting makes it tough...I am already short so have let go of that idea for now

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  #213 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Holy Crap! I went neutral overnight, but back to short. Price closing below 2026 Last weeks high is very critical for my swing. I don't how and why I will be in these situations all the time...some fundamental things must be changed with regarding my trading process.

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Market Wizard
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Freaking back to neutral...will try short again at 200 DMA

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  #215 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Wow! Every time October month seems to be very critical...since everyone trying to draw
comparisons with previous structure here is my take at it...

1. Will it be like October 98? Let's analyze what happened before August of 1998, price moved up
sharply and never consolidated so the sharp drop has been bought aggressively.

2. September of 2000- Price has been consolidating for around 9 months before Sep drop, then again October drop
has been bought aggressively just to give it back in November which is start of down trend.

3. October of 2006 - Again same story price has been consolidating for around 8 month before drop in November.

4. Now comes every bull's favorite October 2011, One thing to note here is there
is not much price consolidation before the drop in Aug, Sep and sharp up to test 10 month SMA.
We can also see price retraced down at-least 75% of October's high in November.

5. 2015 - Price consolidated for around six to seven months before sharp decline in Aug and Sep, then it's same story in October price moved back above 10 month sma but still have a week left so still a question mark.

Now maybe a billion dollar question is what will happen now?

1. If we consider 1998 scenario we will rip higher but price consolidated enough in 2015 before the drop in August so this seems to retest like it happened in Oct 2001 and Oct 2007.

2. If we consider 2011 scenario price will retrace in November to move higher.

3. 2015 may be a major top or another major up leg like in 2011 but I cannot ignore the negative divergences, and breadth not improving w.r.t price makes me think we might be at end of this bull cycle.

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  #216 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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  #217 (permalink)
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  #218 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Very good site for breadth analysis

Stock Market Indicators | IndexIndicators.com

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  #219 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Cumulative ADSPD's and VOLSPD's are diverging

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Market Wizard
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More new lows's than new highs (Monthly and weekly)...weakness is creeping in, Russell tested 50DMA, oil at lows, vix increasing all pointing to coming weakness but NQ and Fed is holding up price...we have to wait and see which one will give up...I am trying to position myself for sharp up and immediate sell off.

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  #221 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
..we have to wait and see which one will give up...I am trying to position myself for sharp up and immediate sell off.

Sounds like a wild roller coaster. Don't forget your seatbelt!

Be careful and good luck.

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  #222 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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As expected I got a sharp up, let's see if we get a sharp down, doesn't look like that but let's see...

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  #223 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
As expected I got a sharp up, let's see if we get a sharp down, doesn't look like that but let's see...

Ok...got sharp up and down, what now? price is recovering nicely which is not what I want...I will go flat if price closes above 2075 (last weeks high).

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  #224 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Ok...got sharp up and down, what now? price is recovering nicely which is not what I want...I will go flat if price closes above 2075 (last weeks high).

Still freaking short, not liking it at all...probably give another day...I had nice opportunity to go flat at lows but the news event I got to move the market was there, initial reaction was in favor of short term pull back but didn't happen, I kind of surprised at everything now...don't know...just hit buy and close my eyes looks like that's the only way now...let me see tomorrows action and see...

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  #225 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
Still freaking short, not liking it at all...probably give another day...I had nice opportunity to go flat at lows but the news event I got to move the market was there, initial reaction was in favor of short term pull back but didn't happen, I kind of surprised at everything now...don't know...just hit buy and close my eyes looks like that's the only way now...let me see tomorrows action and see...

I have to say, you really need some tough love @bmtrading9.

I hate to do this to you, but I think it's for your own good. If I don't do it, you are going to blow your account!

Unleash the @tigertrader

@tigertrader, some people despise you for being brutally honest, but I know your intentions are good. Sometimes being brutally honest is exactly what people need, a wake-up call. @bmtrading9 needs serious help and I tried before, and failed, to get through to him.

Can you help?

Mike

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  #226 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
I have to say, you really need some tough love @bmtrading9.

I hate to do this to you, but I think it's for your own good. If I don't do it, you are going to blow your account!

Unleash the @tigertrader

@tigertrader, some people despise you for being brutally honest, but I know your intentions are good. Sometimes being brutally honest is exactly what people need, a wake-up call. @bmtrading9 needs serious help and I tried before, and failed, to get through to him.

Can you help?

Mike

Yes, please bring it on. Maybe I need hundred whiplashes or more than that...My thinking was right regarding Russel, I entered the trade and exited afterhours thinking can enter later...regarding ES short I thought news event will kick it towards downside, it happened but immediately reversed...by looking at the chart I ask same question again and again how can one be long here and everytime market proves me why not..what if I enter long and market reverses? What if my original plan is right? These questions keeps haunting me...I am sure lot of people went thru this...anyway please help.

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  #227 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Here is little personal background about me

I am a successful software architect earning some six figure salary, with equally successful spouse earning around six figure salary so financially I am stable with two kids (they take up my morning time so can't be around for open)...

I am of Indian origin, studied Bachelor of Science myself i.e self studied and cleared examinations myself, suffered alot during that period because I got very little help/guidance...I am one of the very few to pass that examination. Then I moved to US got a scholarship to study my master and finished my masters, got job etc.

The reason I am telling all this is maybe something is wrong physiologically...

I was buy low and sell high guy, I had not that much success initially around 2007 so left investing etc. then came 2008 crash and I bought all bank stocks and held on to every single one of them until that flash crash, that changed everything for me deep deep inside I am terrified that might happen to me again, then got introduced to shorting/options then to futures...again because of my mentality of buy low I got burnt with oil and left it. So this year I promised myself never ever short so what I did bought ES around 2060 when it dropped from ATH's then after holding because BTFD working all these years and suddenly it stopped working on Aug 24th by that time I was in loss on my long and couldn't get out quickly and reverse the position...again memories of flash crash in front of my eyes....

These are my BIGGEST PROBLEM's what I think are

1. I do my analysis and all then somehow miss the entry and price moves away from me too far (or I let it go too far) then I will start thinking about reversal so what do I do? take opposite position and keep holding. For example yesterday I did my analysis on Russell and entered a long position at proper entry and get out for few points and never entered again because price moved away from me too much and of course FED day.

2. I guess I am good in finding bottom rather than top so I just need to stop looking for top/reverse.

Anyway thanks for taking time and trying to educate and help me...I am prepared to do ANYTHING to fix my trading...

I don't like to watch tick by tick it is making me to make bad decisions one after another.

Swing trading - I enter a position if I am underwater my thought process would be I have time so give my position some time and start looking for confirmation bias, like charts, twitter etc...and keep holding it. If I am good with position then I close is early to see price moves in my direction and cannot buy it back because price is too high and I look for reversals...

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  #228 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I started reading book THE DISCIPLINED TRADER by Mark Douglas. I exited my short at 2076 and entered long bcoz price is unable to close below below previous weeks high but looks like I am going to get stopped out, but that should be fine...anyway looks like I can't find context, l can't trade long or short because I am always fearful, can't reverse quickly and always my stops get hit bcoz of small stops, if I go for wider timeframe market pulls away so much then my timeframe keeps increasing in a hope that price will get back...that's my issue in a nutshell.

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  #229 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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But I am going to do whatever it takes to get this thing right because I am capable of doing it If not I wouldn't be in this position in my life.

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  #230 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
... l can't trade long or short because I am always fearful, always stops get hit bcoz of small stops, if I go for wider timeframe market pulls away so much then my timeframe keeps increasing in a hope that price will get back...that's my issue in a nutshell.

I don't have enough experience to suggest what you should do to improve your trading.

However, I will say this. (which I said few weeks ago)

You are very emotional. That often means your position size is too big and out of your comfort zone.

Cut down to a size where you feel 'almost' don't care about the outcome. For me it's 100 SPY. Find out your number. Good luck.

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  #231 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Narcissus View Post
I don't have enough experience to suggest what you should do to improve your trading.

However, I will say this. (which I said few weeks ago)

You are very emotional. That often means your position size is too big and out of your comfort zone.

Cut down to a size where you feel 'almost' don't care about the outcome. For me it's 100 SPY. Find out your number. Good luck.

Thanks for your suggestion, yrs you might be right also like you I am struggling between swing and day trading.

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bmtrading9 View Post
But I am going to do whatever it takes to get this thing right because I am capable of doing it If not I wouldn't be in this position in my life.

Hello,

You seem to be getting an incorrect impression about what is required to succeed in trading. It has nothing to do with your past achievements or abilities.

I may be wrong to assume you are trading live, in which case you obviously should switch to sim trading. There is not enough quality or consistency in what you are doing. You think about markets as simply something going up and down, which isn't useful if you want to make money. How long have you been working on your trading? Do you understand why what you do should generate positive results? Do you actually have a consistent methodology?

Some people hide behind emotional problems, when in fact they simply haven't done the necessary work. It doesn't matter how many years you've been following the markets. You need to KNOW what makes money by testing your ideas first.

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  #233 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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isla View Post
Hello,

You seem to be getting an incorrect impression about what is required to succeed in trading. It has nothing to do with your past achievements or abilities.

I may be wrong to assume you are trading live, in which case you obviously should switch to sim trading. There is not enough quality or consistency in what you are doing. You think about markets as simply something going up and down, which isn't useful if you want to make money. How long have you been working on your trading? Do you understand why what you do should generate positive results? Do you actually have a consistent methodology?

Some people hide behind emotional problems, when in fact they simply haven't done the necessary work. It doesn't matter how many years you've been following the markets. You need to KNOW what makes money by testing your ideas first.

Thanks for your comments, as mentioned earlier I witnessed 2008 crash then rise then flash crash all these so long enough, I did very well buying low and holding until flash crash day, of course didn't used leverage. Regarding method, simple buy low sell high...and follow value using Volume profile, internals etc...regarding method I feel there is no right or wrong method only the process and how good you are sticking to it and how fast you are reacting when you are wrong and taking positions opposite to your initial bias...regarding method I always wonder what method @tigertrader and @bigmike follow? Do you know? It is not the method it is you, you are responsible for your own making or destruction..

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bmtrading9 View Post
Thanks for your comments, as mentioned earlier I witnessed 2008 crash then rise then flash crash all these so long enough, I did very well buying low and holding until flash crash day, of course didn't used leverage. Regarding method, simple buy low sell high...and follow value using Volume profile, internals etc...regarding method I feel there is no right or wrong method only the process and how good you are sticking to it and how fast you are reacting when you are wrong and taking positions opposite to your initial bias...regarding method I always wonder what method @tigertrader and @bigmike follow? Do you know? It is not the method it is you, you are responsible for your own making or destruction..

I am not saying that methodology is everything. But you definitely need one. You only mentioned a list of tools, but you need a consistent way of using them - your own style. You are talking about process and using intuition, but you need to learn to walk before you can run.

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Market Wizard
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Entered long on Russell, looks like a low volume pull back but I will try to get before BOJ or close below 10 DSMA.

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  #236 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Entered long on Russell, looks like a low volume pull back but I will try to get before BOJ or close below 10 DSMA.

Trying put a stop and accidentally sold it.

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Market Wizard
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Trying put a stop and accidentally sold it.

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EOD rally participation is not there in Russell, I might miss it another time but let me sit out till BOJ.

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I am a successful software architect

That should be beneficial to trading.

What have you architected in the way of a trading plan?

What about in the way of a daily analysis of the market?

And finally, what about in the way of measuring yourself and identifying strengths and weaknesses?

I'm asking what you've designed to help these three areas, a flow chart of sorts. Post it, lets start there.

Mike

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Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
That should be beneficial to trading.

What have you architected in the way of a trading plan?

What about in the way of a daily analysis of the market?

And finally, what about in the way of measuring yourself and identifying strengths and weaknesses?

I'm asking what you've designed to help these three areas, a flow chart of sorts. Post it, lets start there.

Mike

Thanks for taking your time to help me, I really appreciate it, after becoming active on BMT I wish I can meet you up personally in Dallas but I know you are at a beach in Ecuador :-).

Anyway I will explain my process not in the form of flow chart because mind will not follow a concrete flow chart/plan (Maybe it should...)

Short term Swing trading using ES (One/two contracts)

1. Once weekly I examine monthly chart and weekly charts of ES, GC (But trade mini Gold YG) and CL (But trade mini oil QM) to see oversold/overbought levels and to find divergences.

2. Look at daily (some moving averages) and on 2 hour chart examine previous week VPOC, High, Low, HVN and LVN to get an idea of entry (either short of long).

3. Look at breadth such as One month/week NYSE high's and lows on 2 hour chart, look for any divergences in ZN, USDJPY, Oil.

Entry

Previously I entered when price touched or near my entry but these day I am waiting for confirmation to enter any swing trades--thanks to this face ripping rally.

Scaling - I would like to scale in at next level of resistance/support...what I noticed is supports holds all the time but not resistance thanks to our central bankers.

Exit

This is my main problem, once I enter I do have a price target in my mind but I exit before hitting it because of fear of loosing, I will be watching tick by tick get messed up by plethora of information available on twitter etc. Sometimes I do good but sometimes misses it.

Two issues - 1. Not able to exit quick enough in case of wrong and flip sides, 2. Exit quickly even when I am right.

Stop- Once price move very far my entry, I go into defensive mode i.e I will say ok, let me scale in at next level then again scale in at next level then go into obsession mode because by that time I will be looking at huge loss and look for confirmation bias from almost everything (twitter, news etc.) .

I think I do good in volatile market because I know price eventually will come back to my levels but I am very very bad when volatile market becomes trendy because price would moved away from me and I would be holding bag on swing trades because I am no good in reacting fast enough and see what's going on.

Fix (I think...)

1. Since support works all the time, just don't look for shorts only look for longs.

2. Put a stop doesn't matter because I am not ready to read this market and evaluate dynamics on the go.

Day trading

1. Intraday (Strictly for daytrading) look at CTICK (thanks to BMT), TICK, VOLSPD, ADSPD, VIX,USDJPY and volume and other indices NQ, YM and TF.

2. Look for low volume pullback at support levels and divergences but if for some reason If I miss my entry and price moved away from me a lot I always looks for trades in reverse direction and if it is a trend day, I am screwed and sometimes I feel like ok I will wait for scale in at my next level on higher time frame -- VERY BAD.

3. I really don't like to watch tick by tick even though I do it every day so really don't want to be doing day trading because big money is not in day trading unless you are trading with more number of contracts and stick to your rules very very strictly.

By reading all this one can say YOU DON'T HAVE A PLAN, but what is the plan? is it like as simple as entry on moving average crossover and exit on moving avergae crossover but I don't see that kind of trading from other successful traders

IMPORTANT ISSUES

1. Not able to cut losses quickly, forget about flipping - Improving on this
2. If price moves away from me then looking for reversal - Again not doing this these days.
3. Not having physical stop because I am not at the level of where I can get my context right.

I had good success last year - I converted 8K account to 18K in Nov, Dec time frame but lost quickly in Feb. So it's not that I never had any success but I need success consistently.

Thanks for reading and for all the support.

@tigertrader @bigmike @rahulgopi please help me formulating a plan or whatever it is to fix my mind (I think that's my biggest enemy in trading).

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  #240 (permalink)
milpitas, ca, usa
 
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I saw you wrote "regret" in the other thread. This is something you want to watch out for. Mind is a chatterbox and 99% of the thoughts are automatic and doesn't have much value, most of the time are not the truth. Mind, if consciously used is a powerful instrument. Most of the time it controls us as we get attached to the stream of every little thought. I practice ZEN / mindfulness meditation every day. Eventhou it is just as simple as sitting and observing your thoughts, it is very powerful with daily practice. You dont need any bells and whistles for meditation, I was initiated to Kriya yoga , BUT just simply sitting watching the thoughts is more beneficial than anything else.

Here is the simple exercise I use

1) Sit comfortably with feet flat on the ground, take few deep breaths and release slowly.
2) Relax your eyelids while exhaling, and carry the relaxation to rest of the body
3) open your eyes and passively look at something, wall or anything, do not focus on anything.
4) now observe the thoughts / feelings that arise, DO NOT judge, no mental commentary, just observe and let them fade.
5) It is important to not look for any experience, like tingling in your tail bone or light in the 3rd eye or what ever. Looking for any experience is an attachment and it will create mental illusions and fall into the trap of mind. Enlightenment, if it happens is beyond mind , so let go of all experiences while meditating and dont look for any .

Commitment and dedication is the key. The reality is, if you are emotional and impulsive in trading, you are the same in other life situations too. Trading just amplifies everything . So having such a practice will elevate overall well-being, true to my experience. Few years back , after having kids , my stress level was over the roof. Few other financial situations / investments elevated this. As I mentioned elsewhere, trading has pushed me to adapt and change my lifestyle. It amplified and projected all my issues and I choose to face them head on. More work is required but I am very happy with the progress thus far.

EDIT : I posted this before I saw your last post .

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bmtrading9 View Post
Thanks for taking your time to help me, I really appreciate it, after becoming active on BMT I wish I can meet you up personally in Dallas but I know you are at a beach in Ecuador :-).

Anyway I will explain my process not in the form of flow chart because mind will not follow a concrete flow chart/plan (Maybe it should...)

Short term Swing trading using ES (One/two contracts)

1. Once weekly I examine monthly chart and weekly charts of ES, GC (But trade mini Gold YG) and CL (But trade mini oil QM) to see oversold/overbought levels and to find divergences.

2. Look at daily (some moving averages) and on 2 hour chart examine previous week VPOC, High, Low, HVN and LVN to get an idea of entry (either short of long).

3. Look at breadth such as One month/week NYSE high's and lows on 2 hour chart, look for any divergences in ZN, USDJPY, Oil.

Entry

Previously I entered when price touched or near my entry but these day I am waiting for confirmation to enter any swing trades--thanks to this face ripping rally.

Scaling - I would like to scale in at next level of resistance/support...what I noticed is supports holds all the time but not resistance thanks to our central bankers.

Exit

This is my main problem, once I enter I do have a price target in my mind but I exit before hitting it because of fear of loosing, I will be watching tick by tick get messed up by plethora of information available on twitter etc. Sometimes I do good but sometimes misses it.

Two issues - 1. Not able to exit quick enough in case of wrong and flip sides, 2. Exit quickly even when I am right.

Stop- Once price move very far my entry, I go into defensive mode i.e I will say ok, let me scale in at next level then again scale in at next level then go into obsession mode because by that time I will be looking at huge loss and look for confirmation bias from almost everything (twitter, news etc.) .

I think I do good in volatile market because I know price eventually will come back to my levels but I am very very bad when volatile market becomes trendy because price would moved away from me and I would be holding bag on swing trades because I am no good in reacting fast enough and see what's going on.

Fix (I think...)

1. Since support works all the time, just don't look for shorts only look for longs.

2. Put a stop doesn't matter because I am not ready to read this market and evaluate dynamics on the go.

Day trading

1. Intraday (Strictly for daytrading) look at CTICK (thanks to BMT), TICK, VOLSPD, ADSPD, VIX,USDJPY and volume and other indices NQ, YM and TF.

2. Look for low volume pullback at support levels and divergences but if for some reason If I miss my entry and price moved away from me a lot I always looks for trades in reverse direction and if it is a trend day, I am screwed and sometimes I feel like ok I will wait for scale in at my next level on higher time frame -- VERY BAD.

3. I really don't like to watch tick by tick even though I do it every day so really don't want to be doing day trading because big money is not in day trading unless you are trading with more number of contracts and stick to your rules very very strictly.

By reading all this one can say YOU DON'T HAVE A PLAN, but what is the plan? is it like as simple as entry on moving average crossover and exit on moving avergae crossover but I don't see that kind of trading from other successful traders

IMPORTANT ISSUES

1. Not able to cut losses quickly, forget about flipping - Improving on this
2. If price moves away from me then looking for reversal - Again not doing this these days.
3. Not having physical stop because I am not at the level of where I can get my context right.

I had good success last year - I converted 8K account to 18K in Nov, Dec time frame but lost quickly in Feb. So it's not that I never had any success but I need success consistently.

Thanks for reading and for all the support.

@tigertrader @bigmike @rahulgopi please help me formulating a plan or whatever it is to fix my mind (I think that's my biggest enemy in trading).

I'm sorry, but this is a disaster!

I expected to be impressed since you are a software architect. Can you imagine if you delivered the above to a customer as directions on how to run their platform successfully? Wouldn't you be fired on the spot?

You should be very familiar with flow charts in your profession, I highly suggest you hire yourself to come up with a clear representation of what you are trying to do. Only then with very clear, very specific, logic/ideas can you try to troubleshoot where you are currently failing or struggling in the process.

I'm not an architect but I imagine you know of many more tools to chart a process, not just flow charts, so I suggest you employ them -- hire yourself to do architect your trading, and let's take a look at what you come up with.

Mike

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  #242 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
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Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received


rahulgopi View Post
I saw you wrote "regret" in the other thread. This is something you want to watch out for. Mind is a chatterbox and 99% of the thoughts are automatic and doesn't have much value, most of the time are not the truth. Mind, if consciously used is a powerful instrument. Most of the time it controls us as we get attached to the stream of every little thought. I practice ZEN / mindfulness meditation every day. Eventhou it is just as simple as sitting and observing your thoughts, it is very powerful with daily practice. You dont need any bells and whistles for meditation, I was initiated to Kriya yoga , BUT just simply sitting watching the thoughts is more beneficial than anything else.

Here is the simple exercise I use

1) Sit comfortably with legs flat on the ground, take few deep breaths and release slowly.
2) Relax your eyelids while exhaling, and carry the relaxation to rest of the body
3) open your eyes and passively look at something, wall or anything, do not focus on anything.
4) now observe the thoughts / feelings that arise, DO NOT judge, no mental commentary, just observe and let them fade.
5) It is important to not look for any experience, like tingling in your tail bone or light in the 3rd eye or what ever. Looking for any experience is an attachment and it will create mental illusions and fall into the trap of mind. Enlightenment, if it happens is beyond mind , so let go of all experiences while meditating and dont look for any .

Commitment and dedication is the key. The reality is, if you are emotional and impulsive in trading, you are the same in other life situations too. Trading just amplifies everything . So having such a practice will elevate overall well-being, true to my experience. Few years back , after having kids , my stress level was over the roof. Few other financial situations / investments elevated this. As I mentioned elsewhere, trading has pushed me to adapt and change my lifestyle. It amplified and projected all my issues and I choose to face them head on. More work is required but I am very happy with the progress thus far.

EDIT : I posted this before I saw your last post .

Very useful, let me try, I was toying with the idea of meditation for so long, my brother is deep into meditation every day he spends around 2 hours. I see a lot of difference in him but I will not get that much time because of obvious reasons like kids etc. but I will give it a try.

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Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
I'm sorry, but this is a disaster!

I expected to be impressed since you are a software architect. Can you imagine if you delivered the above to a customer as directions on how to run their platform successfully? Wouldn't you be fired on the spot?

You should be very familiar with flow charts in your profession, I highly suggest you hire yourself to come up with a clear representation of what you are trying to do. Only then with very clear, very specific, logic/ideas can you try to troubleshoot where you are currently failing or struggling in the process.

I'm not an architect but I imagine you know of many more tools to chart a process, not just flow charts, so I suggest you employ them -- hire yourself to do architect your trading, and let's take a look at what you come up with.

Mike

Thanks once again for taking your time. You don't have to be sorry because you are trying to help me, I am sorry for not living up to your expectation. What I found is architecting a rigid structure or designing a solution to an issue is way much easier because in those scenario's problem is fixed and outcome is fixed but here in trading analyzing the information coming in from various sources where problem is not fixed and outcome is varies from time frame to time frame. I am not trying to defend myself, I will try to find decent way express (chart or some other graphical way) what goes through my mind when entering, while in the trade and exiting the trade if that is what you are looking for. I will take today's example.

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  #244 (permalink)
milpitas, ca, usa
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Broker: Tradestation, Ameritrade
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bmtrading9 View Post
Very useful, let me try, I was toying with the idea of meditation for so long, my brother is deep into meditation every day he spends around 2 hours. I see a lot of difference in him but I will not get that much time because of obvious reasons like kids etc. but I will give it a try.

There is no will or try , you must Intent to do it starting today (Read Power of Intention by Dr Dyer) . If you feel impatient to grasp the secret of the market, overwhelm by the amount of information, it is the sign of an overactive mind. It is not just your problem, it is universal to all, until one slowdown and look at what one created. Your identity is your creation, you created the belief systems, consciously or unconsciously that defines who you are. Your current personality is just one arrangement of infinite possibilities. You are soo identified with the creation, you forgot the fact that you are the creator and have the power to change it. Possibilities are endless, go meditate

Have a nice weekend.

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Market Wizard
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Overnight I was flat knowing that BOJ decision is pending but my thought process they won't fulfill it but market will not sell off...

1. I saw price ripping higher and went to 2090 area, I was awake because my kid wakes in the middle combined with my insomnia. I wanted to short but after so many fake breakdowns, I wanted price to prove me that it will close below my short level. Also, everyone under the sun is bullish and no one is talking none less than ATH, that's also messing my mind.

2. When I saw price getting support around 2075 I wanted to enter long two times in the morning but missed it, again I saw the price coming back so entered long with little hesitation but said myself to stop out of long if price closes below last weeks high. This long was supposed to be short term swing because I don't want to miss another leg up.

3. My stop hit with last min volume surge and price closed below my short entry.

4. What should I do as per my rules I have to enter short right, I entered but closed it because again I cannot short in the hole, price didn't re-trace, and this volume surge might just be end of month re-positioning so all these thought races in my mind all the time once I enter a position.

So today is perfect example of how I screw up, I wait, hesitate, hesitate to enter any position and once I pull the trigger price moves in my direction but immediately turns the other way and I exit for a loss and price turns back. Not big loss but still...this is in a nutshell what is happening with me. If I have to put this in the form of flow chart or diagram I am not how I can do it but will give it a shot.

Thanks everyone for all the suggestions, help and comments.

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SF Bay Area + CA/US
 
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Agree with @rahulgopi on the benefits of meditation. It definetly clams one down.

There was a time I used to 20mins twice a day. But what I saw was needed only 3.5hrs or 4 of sleep. That's just a immediate thing I saw.

Will also restart on that...since its been a while...and I think it helps with clarity too

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Market Wizard
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Monthly



Got rejected at VPOC level or it's just a some random line I don't know...RSI is flattening, I am going to use just RSI as my momentum indicator even-though it has some lag seems like good in identifying divergences which are key for swing trading and mean reversal methods.

Weekly



Will this really reach 900 level i.e LVN? I really want that price so that I can buy physical gold but I am not sure about if it happens or not. Ideal swing entry would be test of recent lows quickly so that we will divergence in RSI.

Daily (or 2 hr)



Oversold on 2 hour chart with 50 and 100 SMA acting as support so there might be some bounce here but by seeing Monthly and Weekly I would like to wait and see...

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Market Wizard
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Monthly



CL got rejected at 10 month SMA again another random line. RSI is very flat, seasonality is not supporting but looks like oil is correlated with ES when going up so don't know if seasonality matters here or not...I want it to test the 2008 lows at 33 (am I crazy or what? But if we get a selloff in ES that might be possible).



Back in summer when seasonality is favoring oil and at the same time got good divergence I really thought oil will move to 60 but swiftly rejected and churning between 43 and 50 from then...anyway this oil is too volatile but but maybe that's what I need...I don't like to trade when support or resistance levels are too far in this case they are too far so I just want to watch...

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Market Wizard
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I think I found my issue, If I want to put it in simple terms

MEAN REVERSION and LOSS AVERSION

these both are killing me, I have to find a solution to rewire my brain to fight that urge to always find a mean reversion trades and sticking to my STOPS.

I don't think anyone can help me in this regard, I just need to control that urge...I saw few swing traders using a very wide stops of 40 points on ES maybe that will also help....anyway if anyone thinks they went thru similar issue and got over it plz help....My trading would be SWING trading only, NO day trading, I will simply make more and more mistakes by watching intraday action but recently I noticed I am able to read intraday action properly with internals etc. thanks to @rahulgopi and others for teaching me in this regard. When I went back and look at what is my edge, it seems to be dip buying except for two failures....(Flash crash and recent May dip)

1. I was buying and holding in 2008 fin crisis, of course I was scared but able to pull some 300% to 400% gains on stocks but flash crash screwed my mind and introduced me to shorting...

2. Shorting is not my edge

3. I tend to enter the trade early (impulsive trading)

4. Mean reversion on dip buying always work not on shorting side

5. Should not be loss averse...just honor MY STOPS

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Market Wizard
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Context

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/12/trading-process-context.html?m=1

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Market Wizard
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Day structure

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/12/trading-process-day-structure.html?m=1

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Market Wizard
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Relative volume and volatility

https://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/01/relative-volume-and-volatility.html?m=1

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Market Wizard
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I have been thinking about so many things related to trading, for example context, intermarket relationship, FOMC, rate hikes etc etc. what I forgot is I don't have experience (I am gaining that knowledge but still long way to go) in recognizing all those factors well ahead to take advantage and it is definitely above my pay grade. I am also not so good in adapting quickly (working on that).

But, what I forgot is PRICE will CAPTURE and REFLECT all these relationships isn't it? If I can just follow PRICE using a very simple method that would be enough. Anyway I don't want to do day trading because of my impulsiveness.

So what I need?

1. Very simple TREND FOLLOWING method (may be as simple as a moving average etc...)

2. Big enough time frame to eliminate whipsaws (I am leaning towards 2hr time frame)

3. STOP based on VOLATILITY (Leaning towards ATR)

4. This is very important (CONTROLLING MIND - NOT SECOND GUESSING CONSTANTLY)

Any ideas out there?

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
I have been thinking about so many things related to trading, for example context, intermarket relationship, FOMC, rate hikes etc etc. what I forgot is I don't have experience (I am gaining that knowledge but still long way to go) in recognizing all those factors well ahead to take advantage and it is definitely above my pay grade. I am also not so good in adapting quickly (working on that).

But, what I forgot is PRICE will CAPTURE and REFLECT all these relationships isn't it? If I can just follow PRICE using a very simple method that would be enough. Anyway I don't want to do day trading because of my impulsiveness.

So what I need?

1. Very simple TREND FOLLOWING method (may be as simple as a moving average etc...)

2. Big enough time frame to eliminate whipsaws (I am leaning towards 2hr time frame)

3. STOP based on VOLATILITY (Leaning towards ATR)

4. This is very important (CONTROLLING MIND - NOT SECOND GUESSING CONSTANTLY)

Any ideas out there?


I know I have trust a system if it's showed good results in backtesting but I didn't...My system said short at 2091 but it was chopping before hence missed the entry....working on my fourth point.

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Market Wizard
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As I mentioned before I always look for mean reversion trades that and loss aversion always bite me in the ass...So why do I need to find highs and bottoms to place trades? If my points are accurate enough I will get entry but what If I wait for confirmation and enter the trade in the direction of trend and manage it with STOPS that would have helped me in the long term...but in choppy environment I will get chopped up let it be as long as I am profitable overall that shouldn't be an issue...and more over chop means ending of the trend....so today the system I am testing with gave me a sell signal at 2092 but missed it because that signal came in the night around 2 AM. and price bounced of last week's low....

I am sure many will not like the idea of moving average but last 3 months/3 years back testing is giving me good results but can I trust TOS results?, I don't know so I am going try ninjatrader for back testing...let me see, I prefer to automate this but I need good results before doing it.

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bmtrading9 View Post
I know I have trust a system if it's showed good results in backtesting

You shouldn't. The way most people backtest it's just curve fitting and has low probability of correlation to future events.

Mike

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You shouldn't. The way most people backtest it's just curve fitting and has low probability of correlation to future events.

Mike

I agree, what I want to rely on is PRICE because all these correlations will translate into price. As I recognize I don't have expertise (I am trying to gain, thanks once again to you and all the traders here) to clearly identify these nuances ahead of time. Also, I am not a full-time trader to be trading Intra-day and I recognize that I am not fast enough to adapt to quick changes but I want to be successful, that desire is fueling me enough to learn proper risk management, position management etc...I am fine with the lag as long as I am in the proper trend direction. Thanks for all the help.

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bmtrading9 View Post
As I mentioned before I always look for mean reversion trades that and loss aversion always bite me in the ass...So why do I need to find highs and bottoms to place trades? If my points are accurate enough I will get entry but what If I wait for confirmation and enter the trade in the direction of trend and manage it with STOPS that would have helped me in the long term...but in choppy environment I will get chopped up let it be as long as I am profitable overall that shouldn't be an issue...and more over chop means ending of the trend....so today the system I am testing with gave me a sell signal at 2092 but missed it because that signal came in the night around 2 AM. and price bounced of last week's low....

I am sure many will not like the idea of moving average but last 3 months/3 years back testing is giving me good results but can I trust TOS results?, I don't know so I am going try ninjatrader for back testing...let me see, I prefer to automate this but I need good results before doing it.

There is nothing wrong with looking for mean reversion trades at highs or bottoms - they allow for good RR. If you back tested your timeframe and your statistical analysis tells you the probability of price reaching past a certain point is lower (SD1, SD2...etc), trading contrarian at that point will give you an edge - this is your trade location edge. This is why a lot of people use VP, it shows you those areas.

Your execution edge is reading order flow/price to find the turn at that point, not blindly fading into momentum. This is where CD/TS/DOM comes in. Waiting for confirmation is too slow, ES is too choppy and there are not enough trends. You have to be in at the turn, not after the confirmation - your RR becomes exponentially worse if you wait for too much confirmation.

If you only read price you will get chopped up because you don't have a statistical edge in your trade location - this is why almost all indicators "don't work", when infact, they do work - if proper context is observed and applied.

Also your chop issue is because your stops are too tight, if you are a fading tops/bottoms, you have to be very generous with your stops, especially on the ES.

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PeakGrowth View Post
There is nothing wrong with looking for mean reversion trades at highs or bottoms - they allow for good RR. If you back tested your timeframe and your statistical analysis tells you the probability of price reaching past a certain point is lower (SD1, SD2...etc), trading contrarian at that point will give you an edge - this is your trade location edge. This is why a lot of people use VP, it shows you those areas.

Your execution edge is reading order flow/price to find the turn at that point, not blindly fading into momentum. This is where CD/TS/DOM comes in. Waiting for confirmation is too slow, ES is too choppy and there are not enough trends. You have to be in at the turn, not after the confirmation - your RR becomes exponentially worse if you wait for too much confirmation.

If you only read price you will get chopped up because you don't have a statistical edge in your trade location - this is why almost all indicators "don't work", when infact, they do work - if proper context is observed and applied.

Also your chop issue is because your stops are too tight, if you are a fading tops/bottoms, you have to be very generous with your stops, especially on the ES.

Excellent mate, I agree ES is too slow for mean reversion trading, maybe CL but I don't have guts to touch it...I got burnt once with oil, still I look for some swing trades in oil and gold though if chart looks decent enough dip buy.

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bmtrading9 View Post
Excellent mate, I agree ES is too slow for mean reversion trading, maybe CL but I don't have guts to touch it...I got burnt once with oil, still I look for some swing trades in oil and gold though if chart looks decent enough dip buy.

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Might have missed the point - MR is good for ES because of how badly it trends, slow is only relative - you can normalise the pace of the market by using a tick chart instead of a time chart. I trade ETH, which means a MR trade can play out over 3 or 4 hours if I open one during the Asian session, however, speed is not an issue as the same scenario can play out regardless if it took 15mins or 3hours - the chart looks the same as the tick chart normalises the pace.

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Market Wizard
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My system didn't gave a buy signal from short at 2097 (I didn't take it) on daily and it didn't gave me a buy signal on 90 mins (I think 90 mins is better suited than 2 hr system but it doesn't matter as long as you are following trend) but still I went long thinking market is way oversold (mean reversion mentality) on all levels...I MUST control this. Anyway, looking for bounce to 2050 or stop out (this is critical, I must adhere to the stop - loss aversion mentality should be controlled).

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Market Wizard
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Stopped out on my long, only reason I entered the trade was fear of missing out the bottom - I didn't stick to the plan and paid the price.

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Market Wizard
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I still don't have a buy signal on my 90 min chart but might be getting close as Russell is showing strength and Cum VOLSPD is still in deep red but I am seeing divergence in VOLSPD'S which means volume is not supporting this drop (Might change in the end). I am trying to follow my very simple trend system based on price.

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Market Wizard
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Overall I showed little restraint by not trying to find bottom even though I am getting distracted by plethora of outside opinions...last night's stop doesn't look bad now but still think we will get a bounce soon but I am going to wait for my signal...another terrorist attacks! what in the world is wrong with people? Why do they have to show superiority over fellow humans? Why can't we coexist peacefully? Damn people.

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Market Wizard
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The easiest way to make money is to go with the flow. To identify the flow, you need to stand apart from the crowd and suspend what you believe about relative value so that you can determine who is likely to do what and with how much force , how everyone else is likely to react, and if it doesn’t happen, what will traders do then? - Mark Douglas

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Market Wizard
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Still getting influenced by external factors because I am a human...I MUST trust my system and take all the trades but manually taking trades afterhours is difficult still sometimes price comes to the entry to give second still not taking those trades because of my FEAR OF LOOSING.

This just few trades based on my 90 mins system....my daily system is still short from 2092 (Daily might be too slow) - I have to find a middle ground.


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Market Wizard
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I have to remind myself constantly it's not the system, it's the execution is the toughest mentally and to overcome fear I need strict discipline

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Market Wizard
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Hindsight it's a pretty good long from 2014, system still showing long, 2047 is LVN from last week so that might provide resistance.

Edit - I didn't take that long bcoz I am still in testing mode and execution is my biggest obstacle right now.

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Market Wizard
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LOL, got to love it when my thesis is right and I am not in it...NOW CRITICAL IS CONTROLING THE URGE TO TAKE OPPOSITE TRADE.

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bmtrading9 View Post
Still getting influenced by external factors because I am a human...I MUST trust my system and take all the trades but manually taking trades afterhours is difficult still sometimes price comes to the entry to give second still not taking those trades because of my FEAR OF LOOSING.

This just few trades based on my 90 mins system....my daily system is still short from 2092 (Daily might be too slow) - I have to find a middle ground.


System closed long and went short -- that profit would have been awesome if I wouldaaa taken it...

I am going to wait and see if I can take this short or not?


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Market Wizard
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Found a bug in the code, not a major difference but it's a bug, system should not sell at previous location but sold, fixed it now...hope no bugs

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Market Wizard
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It's itching to get short but need confirmation from my system...again it is not the system any system will work, it's the following it and the execution makes or breaks a trader.

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Market Wizard
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Ok, I am trying to fade my system at 2066 area if we get there, FOMC day makes it tough though

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Ok, I am trying to fade my system at 2066 area if we get there, FOMC day makes it tough though

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I didn't fade my system which is still long because of FOMC mins, burnt many times before trading FOMC...

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
I didn't fade my system which is still long because of FOMC mins, burnt many times before trading FOMC...

What is wrong with me, I didn't take any long trades but looking to fade LOL. Price cleared monthly VWAP at 2068.50 and hovering near last weeks VPOC at 2074.

I am expecting a bull trap here as it did in previous FOMC's if not all time highs....

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Market Wizard
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Short at 2073 with tight stop, let me see

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Short at 2073 with tight stop, let me see

That hurts but still with in my stop though...I shouldn't have said tight stop though.

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Market Wizard
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Needless to say I got stopped out...I got sell signal on my system this morning, will short using SPY instead of ES. Two losses I didn't follow the system, I tried to out smart the system...sticking to the system and execution is very important as Mark Douglas says...

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Market Wizard
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Market Wizard
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Price might go to into sideways action after big trend so my system will negate the sell signal if price closes above 2087 in next 90 mins as of now sell signal at 2085. Ofcourse, I coudn't get it at 2085.

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post

Closed it, too slow day.....

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Market Wizard
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I know it's hindsight chart...My system gave a sell signal at 2089 on SPX (RTH), now I am confident that I can trust my system with either RTH or ETH but big issues are entry and stops...that being said I took short yesterday ES at 2085 and covered it for 12 points....I didn't wait for my system to flip long (still trust issues and take whatever profit I can get mentality)...

Issues with my system...

1. I might not get a perfect entry

2. Overnight stops - will it be better if I go with ADR stops (overnight) to protect from any black swan events? because other stops are built in to the system...

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Market Wizard
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Still in testing mode, made good progress...just one issue with time based charts i.e exits are not that good in highly volatile environment but so far I did good with ES, GC (GLD calls and NUGT stocks) and not so good with CL (UCO stock)...

Aim for me is

1. Less number of trades
2. Consistent profits

Once I am comfortable/profitable then scale in the direction of trade....

I am looking at Volume based chart on Nina but I am not getting what I want with that setting so trying 4500 tick chart on ES and trying to find optimum tick chart settings on CL and GOLD (for now sticking with daily charts for these two....)

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Market Wizard
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Still having tough time to follow all of my systems signals, taking all the systems signals is very important because we don't know the outcome of each individual signal but we know the outcome of collective signals.

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Market Wizard
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Another issue for me is marrying to a position (mainly swing), I should take profits when price rips up in few hours in my favor for example today I entered oil using QM at 37 it ripped to 38.50, I should have take profits but I waited thinking this is start of the squeeze and next thing you know price came back down, no follow thru yet...

Edit: Sold it at 37.50 from 37...I should have taken it out at 38...damn damn...

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Market Wizard
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I hate this freaking market straight or straight down...I was in long but went for a ride and knocked down, the reason got scared is the FOMC (probably the BIGGEST ever)...I was waiting for this setup for one month and in one day it reversed and ripped on my face. I didn't loose money by shorting but still very mad...

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Market Wizard
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Real pain in a swing system is if you miss out the trade then waiting for the next setup to show up

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Market Wizard
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I am not regretting for missing out today as I did not plan to trade until options expiration...It seems I am lost and more confused but at the same time sticking to the plan...I don't know where my trading is leading but...day by day I am getting more confused by watching the market and it irrational behavior

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Market Wizard
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I wish all fellow traders a very very happy and profitable year...good luck all.

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Market Wizard
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Good start to the new year for me...just trying to follow the system with some context ...

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Market Wizard
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Good start to year, hope to keep it that way...still need to stop over trading and take all the signals generated by the system...


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Market Wizard
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May be a bad idea but I like my probabilities here so I am trying to catch a falling knife i.e crude...put a buy order for QM at 30.85, with mental stop at one full point. I like my chances if it get's there even though seasonality is not in favor.

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Market Wizard
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May be a bad idea but I like my probabilities here so I am trying to catch a falling knife i.e crude...put a buy order for QM at 30.85, with mental stop at one full point. I like my chances if it get's there even though seasonality is not in favor.

Missed by 3 ticks!!!

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  #294 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received

Got into TNA 100 shares at middle thinking it might breakout obviously wrong but I like my chances here to add a few more at 47 and 46.50 because Russell is way oversold on daily level.

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  #295 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received


bmtrading9 View Post
Missed by 3 ticks!!!

Moved buy order to 30.60 let me see...if I get it

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  #296 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received


bmtrading9 View Post
Moved buy order to 30.60 let me see...if I get it

I canceled my order on crude because YM and ES are moving good so got into YM and now I have to ride along without hesitation

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  #297 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received


bmtrading9 View Post
I canceled my order on crude because YM and ES are moving good so got into YM and now I have to ride along without hesitation

I got stopped out overnight and it reversed...one of those days...

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #298 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received

Trying to catch oil again at 29.80

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  #299 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received


bmtrading9 View Post
Trying to catch oil again at 29.80

Cancelled my order, looks like equities started to dump now...

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Market Wizard
Atlanta, GA, USA
 
Experience: Advanced
Platform: MC and Jigsaw
Trading: ES, MES
 
Posts: 1,833 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,987 given, 2,151 received

Just one trade today, closed 100 shares of TNA in the morning...from then my mind was in hesitation mode all day because of YM stop out over night and rip to my target then down again...

My developing strategy is based on trend following but market context totally changed intraday so I have to lower my time frame and play accordingly (same thing happened in August) but this is more of a controlled selling than what we saw in August (it was pure panic in August). Maybe we are going to enter into more correction territory or maybe not I am waiting to get signal on daily to start a swing position.

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