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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #211 (permalink)
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I will short if SPX closes below 2027 EOD

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  #212 (permalink)
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Damn I should be shorting if price closes below pivot 2030 on SPX but tomorrow's ECB meeting makes it tough...I am already short so have let go of that idea for now

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  #213 (permalink)
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Holy Crap! I went neutral overnight, but back to short. Price closing below 2026 Last weeks high is very critical for my swing. I don't how and why I will be in these situations all the time...some fundamental things must be changed with regarding my trading process.

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  #214 (permalink)
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Freaking back to neutral...will try short again at 200 DMA

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  #215 (permalink)
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ES Monthly

Futures Edge on FIO

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Wow! Every time October month seems to be very critical...since everyone trying to draw
comparisons with previous structure here is my take at it...

1. Will it be like October 98? Let's analyze what happened before August of 1998, price moved up
sharply and never consolidated so the sharp drop has been bought aggressively.

2. September of 2000- Price has been consolidating for around 9 months before Sep drop, then again October drop
has been bought aggressively just to give it back in November which is start of down trend.

3. October of 2006 - Again same story price has been consolidating for around 8 month before drop in November.

4. Now comes every bull's favorite October 2011, One thing to note here is there
is not much price consolidation before the drop in Aug, Sep and sharp up to test 10 month SMA.
We can also see price retraced down at-least 75% of October's high in November.

5. 2015 - Price consolidated for around six to seven months before sharp decline in Aug and Sep, then it's same story in October price moved back above 10 month sma but still have a week left so still a question mark.

Now maybe a billion dollar question is what will happen now?

1. If we consider 1998 scenario we will rip higher but price consolidated enough in 2015 before the drop in August so this seems to retest like it happened in Oct 2001 and Oct 2007.

2. If we consider 2011 scenario price will retrace in November to move higher.

3. 2015 may be a major top or another major up leg like in 2011 but I cannot ignore the negative divergences, and breadth not improving w.r.t price makes me think we might be at end of this bull cycle.

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  #216 (permalink)
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ES Weekly

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  #217 (permalink)
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ES Daily

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  #218 (permalink)
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Very good site for breadth analysis

Stock Market Indicators | IndexIndicators.com

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  #219 (permalink)
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Cumulative ADSPD's and VOLSPD's are diverging

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  #220 (permalink)
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More new lows's than new highs (Monthly and weekly)...weakness is creeping in, Russell tested 50DMA, oil at lows, vix increasing all pointing to coming weakness but NQ and Fed is holding up price...we have to wait and see which one will give up...I am trying to position myself for sharp up and immediate sell off.

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