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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #191 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Still short with one contract...obviously not liking the action here...USDJPY is down, HYG is coming down, ZN perking up, Oil is coming down hopefully stars are getting aligned...in this kind of bad trade after a very very long time...Friday ramp caught me off guard and Monday's and Today's p/a after showing weakness over night and reverse is kind of tough

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  #192 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

This market practically went from sell the rips to buy the dips on a bad jobs report in just 2 days...so I am kind ready to throw the towel in and flip long but common sense is not letting me do that...few mistakes I did/doing...

1. Didn't react to the price action quick enough due to news.

2. Didn't followed the plan because of news and bearish reaction after the news.

3. Even though mine is a swing trade on a larger timeframe emotions are getting tough to control.

4. I read in the book that fear/anxiety is common in trading even for well experienced traders, best way to cope up is just to follow the plan.

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  #193 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Market ignoring bad data o/n and trying to front run QE announcement...I am ready to flip long but not just yet because

1. We don't have any concrete evidence that QE is on the table, Fed discussed about negative rates but I dont remember QE was mentioned before.
2. NYMO at extremely high reading of 80.
3. We are top of the range at daily charts
4. Slight possibility of H&S pattern and 50DMA resistance
5. We are in a downtrend and well below 200DMA

That being said every dip is getting bought overnight which is a concern for bears...

My plan is to wait and see what happens next after FOMC. If there is any QE I have to go long...

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  #194 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Not an easy task emotionally, my only fear is what if I am right afterall with the short? How do you guys cope up with these kind of emotions.

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  #195 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Futures Edge on FIO
I watched watched watched and successfully entered at top tick just to close it for one point loss...back to net short...damn..

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  #196 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Buying panic...looks lime I am not the top tick afterall

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  #197 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

It looks I have to give up shorting all together because

1. I read somewhere most indicators works well spotting lows so algos works on indicators and find the bottom easly
2. I think I am good at identifying bottoms...once I fail to act I go opposite and suffer slow painful torture.


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  #198 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

That GOLD tricked me yesterday everyone and now moving up, is this the starting of an up trend?

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  #199 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Still holding bag with one short on ES...whenever I try to go long market looks like it want to puke and my mind constantly keep telling stupid you waited this long, look at daily chart, how can one go long...other voice keep reminding me that you moron look at these last three days and last three years market will never go down then immediately other voice comes back and this battle is going on...I stopped looking at the every tick which is good thing...

Reasons for short

1. Top of the range....NYMO at extreme readings, blah blah...

Reasons for long

1. Markets had plenty of opportunities to go down, it just just churning to frustrate shorts and might rip...

I want to enter long on pull backs with caution but that pullback will not happen when everyone is expecting as simple as that...

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  #200 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


I thought flipping opinions/trades is easy but it seems to be very very difficult.

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