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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #11 (permalink)
Elite Member
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,607 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,568 given, 1,717 received


bmtrading9 View Post
I am back short YM at 17481 and ES at 2095.75 ideally I want these two close below in next 30 mins or else again I have to take a bite and call it a day...

That didn't go well but still having both shorts only change is I hedged my ES with December contract, reason for this is they might try to run out stops above 2100 and any overnight weakness I will get out of YM short.

Edit: LOL, while typing this they were running stops....

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  #12 (permalink)
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  #13 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
Edit: LOL, while typing this they were running stops....

That is a dangerous belief. I see stuff like that usually said by people in "rooms" or rookies that don't really know any better (the same people that blame HFT's).

I'm just urging a bit of caution in the way you are thinking about the market.

Mike

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  #14 (permalink)
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Thanks @bigmike

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  #15 (permalink)
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Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
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bmtrading9 View Post
This journal is long due, I am trying to improve my trading. I think documenting the journey would help me to achieve my goal.

My Mindset – I want to buy low and sell high (that makes me the one always fighting the TREND)
I will be very uncomfortable/fearful/dreaded BUYING at highs i.e breakouts or buying at all-time highs or near all-time highs or 52 week highs. At the same time I am very comfortable SHORTING at highs and needless to say that was not at all a good idea in last five years.

I will be very uncomfortable/fearful/dreaded SHORTING at lows.

I don’t mind averaging down in the HOPE of getting back to breakeven and in the process of going thru hell lot of pain
and mental agony and missing the meat of the move by selling the position once I am at breakeven.

I always enter the trade a bit early and get out of it a bit early (This is direct result of position size and leverage I
understand that).

This makes me the guy who always looks for mean reversion.

What I learned so far

One can fight the trend if he/she have huge margin but with small account you simply cannot.

I need a stop-loss preferable mental one because hard stop-loss always gets me (I mean literally every time).

Be fast and adaptive to the changing markets.

I MUST follow a method and stick with it and that method must include a stop loss.

My Method (Still developing)

Combination of Buying/Trading Value, trend following, monitoring market internals and mean reversion.

Tools selected - Auction Theory using mainly Volume Profiles (Different time-frames), sometimes Market Profile using
range bars and HA candles for visualizing trend.

Platform – TOS ( I tried other platforms somehow I keep coming back to TOS so going to stick with it even though
it’s not great for Volume Profiles but I think it’s not that bad).

Future improvement – Will try to incorporate Volume Foot Print chart and cum delta volume to identify reversals
(But might have to wait for TOS. I can go to NT or Market Delta but both needs monthly subscriptions to data and
platform so not ready for that yet).

In my next two posts I will outline my Swing Trading method and Short Term/Day/Intraday Trading method.

Hi mate,

If you find you are getting run over counter trend trading (I assume you are, since you say your stops almost always get hit), incorporate foot print charts as soon as possible. Footprints will show you where momentum is running into resistance (absorption), it will make your entries a lot better if you can see the order flow.

Have a look at how I use footprints to catch reversals in my journal, Trades on August 14th and August 17th both show how absorption are potential reversal points.

You don't need to pay for marketdelta, just use NT (free for sim) and get the Gom Volume Ladder in the elite indicators section.

Get a data feed such as kinetic (about $90 a month), use NT to watch orderflow and execute on TOS. That would be the cheapest way.

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  #16 (permalink)
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@PeakGrowth Thanks for the message and advice. Yes, I am aware of GOM footprint. I use TOS for charting and data because it's free of charge for me but they don't have footprint charts maybe in future they will have. Almost everytime they will run my stops, maybe I need to get foot print charts even I have to pay for the data.

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  #17 (permalink)
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Sydney, Australia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, IRESS
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Thanks: 169 given, 446 received


bmtrading9 View Post
@PeakGrowth Thanks for the message and advice. Yes, I am aware of GOM footprint. I use TOS for charting and data because it's free of charge for me but they don't have footprint charts maybe in future they will have. Almost everytime they will run my stops, maybe I need to get foot print charts even I have to pay for the data.

Gotta pay to play - if you want this to be more than just a hobby, you need to invest in the tools. 90 bucks a month is nothing if you're treating it as a business.

For an even cheaper option, go with DTN IQ feed, futures.io (formerly BMT) elite members get a pretty good discount on it.

Nobody is running your stops, you are too insignificant (no offence intended). There are only 3 reasons why you are getting your stops hit
1. You are getting entries in the middle of momentum and you are getting run over before momentum exhausts itself
2. You are placing your stops too tight and getting stopped out in the noise
3. You are placing your stops at obvious places (a few ticks below a low, etc) where other retail stops are and your stops are getting run along with every other guy who put their stops there.

In all 3 cases, it's not the markets fault or someone deliberately running your particular stops. Whether your stops get hit for the right reason (your hypothesis is wrong) is entirely up to how you place them and nothing to do with someone else or the market running them. You are solely responsible for why you get stopped out.

You can solve all 3 problems by fixing how you place stops
1. Don't step in front of momentum
2. Use a wider stop
3. Place a stop further away from an obvious stop point so you don't get gamed

Hope that helps.

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  #18 (permalink)
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Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,607 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,568 given, 1,717 received

Still have my positions from yesterday...I put a limit order to close YM at 410 but didn't hit and now market pulled back so have to give little room and manage ES later...I am short biased for today.

I am at Doctor appointment so checking on my phone only

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  #19 (permalink)
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Wow! I am not sure what to make out of this action here...still holding but why?

1. Price seems to be at top of the range and we are in a range bound market.

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  #20 (permalink)
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Lucky Vs Unlucky


Good Research on Definition of Lucky and Unlucky. Worth to read and re-read and re-read whenever we feel we are Unlucky...............

Why some people have all the Luck ?

By Professor Richard Wiseman, University of Hertfordshire.

Why do some people get all the luck while others never get the breaks they deserve?

A psychologist says he has discovered the answer.

Ten years ago, I set out to examine luck. I wanted to know why some people are always in the right place at the right time, while others consistently experience ill fortune. I placed advertisements in national newspapers asking for people who felt consistently lucky or unlucky to contact me.

Hundreds of extraordinary men & women volunteered for my research & over the years, I have interviewed them, monitored their lives & had them take part in experiments.

The results reveal that although these people have almost no insight into the causes of their luck, their thoughts & behaviour are responsible for much of their good & bad fortune. Take the case of seemingly chance opportunities. Lucky people consistently encounter such opportunities, whereas unlucky people do not.

I carried out a simple experiment to discover whether this was due to differences in their ability to spot such opportunities. I gave both lucky and unlucky people a newspaper, and asked them to look through it & tell me how many photographs were inside. I had secretly placed a large message halfway through the newspaper saying : "Tell the experimenter you have seen this and win $50."

This message took up half of the page & was written in type that was more than two inches high. It was staring everyone straight in the face, but the unlucky people tended to miss it & the lucky people tended to spot it.

Unlucky people are generally more tense than lucky people, and this anxiety disrupts their ability to notice the unexpected. As a result, they miss opportunities because they are too focused on looking for something else. They go to parties'; intent on finding their perfect partner & so miss opportunities to make good friends. They look through newspapers determined to find certain types of job advertisements & miss other types of jobs.

Lucky people are more relaxed & open, and therefore see what is there rather than just what they are looking for. My research eventually revealed that lucky people generate good fortune via four principles. They are skilled at creating & noticing chance opportunities, make lucky decisions by listening to their intuition, create self-fulfilling prophesies via positive expectations, and adopt a resilient attitude that transforms bad luck into good.

Towards the end of the work, I wondered whether these principles could be used to create good luck. I asked a group of volunteers to spend a month carrying out exercises designed to help them think & behave like a lucky person. Dramatic results ! These exercises helped them spot chance opportunities, listen to their intuition, expect to be lucky, and be more resilient to bad luck. One month later, the volunteers returned & described what had happened. The results were dramatic : 80% of people were now happier, more satisfied with their lives & perhaps most important of all, luckier.

The lucky people had become even luckier & the unlucky had become lucky. Finally, I had found the elusive "luck factor".

Here are Professor Wiseman's four top tips for becoming lucky:
1) Listen to your gut instincts - they are normally right
2) Be open to new experiences and breaking Ur normal routine
3) Spend a few moments each day remembering things that went well
4) Visualize Urself being lucky before an important meeting or telephone call.
Have a Lucky day and work for it... "

The happiest people in the world are not those who have no problems, but those who learn to live with things that are less than perfect."

" There is a great difference between "worry" & "concern",
A worried person only sees the problem & a concerned person solves the problem..!

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