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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

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  #101 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Is this cash or sim?

Mike

Cash

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  #102 (permalink)
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Cash

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You should go flat and take your lumps and try to learn the lesson prior to blowing up the account.

Tomorrow the Fed may save you, we may get a 75 point drop, but we may also crush shorts with a move to 2025 area.

I don't see any strategy here, I just see you trying to cover a mistake by selling more. And I see compounding of mistakes by exiting the winning trades early and letting the losers run (selling your long early, and selling more short).

When your plan turns to "worst case scenario hold until next week" you are in serious, serious trouble. I don't know how much leverage you are using, but can you survive a move to 2030? I would imagine that 2030 will take a lot of effort to move past, so you are probably safe from it moving beyond that between now and October's meeting, but the pattern of your behavior is leading you to ruin.

I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but it's likely to be volatile.

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  #103 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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You should go flat and take your lumps and try to learn the lesson prior to blowing up the account.

Tomorrow the Fed may save you, we may get a 75 point drop, but we may also crush shorts with a move to 2025 area.

I don't see any strategy here, I just see you trying to cover a mistake by selling more. And I see compounding of mistakes by exiting the winning trades early and letting the losers run (selling your long early, and selling more short).

When your plan turns to "worst case scenario hold until next week" you are in serious, serious trouble. I don't know how much leverage you are using, but can you survive a move to 2030? I would imagine that 2030 will take a lot of effort to move past, so you are probably safe from it moving beyond that between now and October's meeting, but the pattern of your behavior is leading you to ruin.

I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but it's likely to be volatile.

Mike

Thanks Mike, Let me explain why I am doing front month spread trading...

1. I realized we are in range market not in a trend market

2. I tried to dip buy before that big drop because that's has been working since last 5 years but I was getting nervous even with
one contract, usually my pain tolerance level is high, so I hedged with front month short and came out kind of fine.

3. If you see the market has been in this range bound for last one month.

4. My idea is buy at support and sell at resistance but what you will do when resistance become breakout in just two days?
I am struggling changing my swing opinion based on one or two days of action.

As you observed it has not worked...

because I didn't wait for my exit on long at top of the range but why I didn't do it?
because market didn't reach that top of the range before but it reached today i.e 1992-1996
so I pulled the trigger early that was mistake one and added to it little early (3 points early) mistake two, looming critical FOMC and my thinking of pullback before FOMC pushed me into this situation.

Definitely I am going flat before FOMC, thanks for the suggestion, I definitely can't scalp for one or two points...swinging is the way to go but pain is also maximum (if you are on wrong side i.e when range becomes a trend and you are on the opposite side).

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  #104 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Any idea what happens if we have single prints in TPO? After all this whipsaws I am seeing price is still below the value area...maybe I am curve fitting, still trying to learn the concepts so any help will be appreciated.

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Market Wizard
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Ten years monthly chart didn't even touch HVA's in both Volume profile and TPO so we cannot even call this a correction...maybe just a blip or deeper correction is on the horizon

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  #106 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Here is 2 hr ES chart since last FOMC meeting, see that spike up that's were market tried to get in everyone long again for ATH and from then it's a down drift....we are at a point of breakout and all depends on FOMC, maybe this time it is different...I am trying to understand why did we drop? is it China or FOMC or both?

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  #107 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Good morning and good luck to every trader on this very important day...

I sold one contract yesterday night at 1983 from my entry of 1979.5 still left out with one contract short and Nov puts on SPY.

I use Interactive Brokers, since it is FIFO it's getting very tough/confused with the average prices, anyone know how to change that?


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  #108 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Wow! look at the pain of squeeze, unfortunately I choose to be part of it. Anyone who have atleast little logic in them would ask the question after six years of ZIRP if economy is still not at what they want to be there has to be something fundamentally wrong isn't it? Position looked better with the initial drop but I choose to not to trade for next few days and left it...

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  #109 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Holy crap!! What do you do now? that is one hell off a ride, reminds us we are still in range market not in a trend market....you got to be super human to trade this kind of a move.

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Holy crap!! What do you do now? that is one hell off a ride, reminds us we are still in range market not in a trend market....you got to be super human to trade this kind of a move.

Actually the move was well under the average daily range of the last 20 days. I was expecting more out of such an important meeting.

Mike

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Market Wizard
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No trades as of now...I put an order to cover short at 1941 in the morning, it reached 1945 and reversed....My mind is struggling like crazy, deep down I want to hold it for NEW LOWS i.e below 1800 (am I crazy?) but this option expiration combined with these big moves I am struggling...oh shoot just got breakeven

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Market Wizard
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One correlation I am noticing is GOLD is getting bid with this drop, may be that safe heaven asset thinking is back and the drop/correction will be deeper than expected...

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Market Wizard
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Gold Swing entry

My initial thought was even after the big crash gold couldn't move higher hence I posponed my idea of swinging gold till it reaches 950 are but after yesterday's FOMC meeting it seems gold is getting a bid...

Fundamental reasons to enter

1. Gold might be moving up because of safe heaven mentality will be back

2. Gold consumption might be going up due to demand in India because of upcoming festival season

Technical charts to follow...any comments/critique are appreciated

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Market Wizard
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1. Getting support at LVN area on TPO profile, my initial idea was to enter at 950 area i.e LVN on volume profile on TEN year chart

2. Huge monthly divergence

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Market Wizard
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Momentum is kind of building on weekly charts

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Market Wizard
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Here is the hard part

1. Missed entry at daily VWAP cross of weekly VWAP (I have to do some research on this, I just noticed and trying to fit this VWAP cross into my process)

2. Missed entry at weekly VWAP cross of Monthly VWAP

3. Idea is to wait for pullback to 1120 area (highly doubt if we reach there or not) else at 1130 area last weeks LVN area...

Exit

Stop would be daily VWAP < weekly VWAP or 1110 area

That being said since I have small account, I have to look at YG (mini Gold) either December or Next years because it is a long term swing and I hate to do contract roll-overs.

Execution is key...any help will be appreciated...

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  #117 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Still have the same positions, hindsight I am so pissed of for not taking 1940 profits, reason would be I am waiting for atleast 1925 as you can see my canceled order at 1925, instead I shorted pre-market at 1962.50 and covered at 1957...I have to re-think of bearishness because market doesn't want to go down or it want me to get out before going down...

I have an open order for Gold at 1122.

MAIN STRUGGLE IS CHANGING SWING BIAS BASED ON INTRADAY MOVEMENTS....I exactly know why this struggle i.e due to futures so I might want to re-think the strategy here...

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  #118 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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  #119 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Now, I am confused even more...these wild swings and daily chart, weekly chart telling us bearishness but intraday swings telling us bullishness...I know it's just another day but maybe another range bound is developing here..let's see

Still have same positions...

Edit: I am kind of tired of waiting for my long term price of 1800's

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  #120 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Closed my short position at 1934...didn't wait for 1925 and did mistake of going long at 1933 with 2 contracts and stopped out at 1930 then panicked and shorted at 1928.25 (Lowes tick) then saw reversal and panicked again and bought front month contract...the more trades I do more mistakes I am doing...damn

Idea is to wait for reversal and sell the long and add on to short...let's see how it goes...

Edit: So original short was from 1966 so 1966-1934 = 32 handles

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  #121 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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My stupidity of not able to sit on hands

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  #122 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Exited SPY Nov puts for 7.08, look to reenter after bounce....For now plan is to exit short and keep long for bounce..

Edit: Hindsight I shouldaaa exited long after after the fail of VWAP test...but was dropping kid at school and coming to work.

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  #123 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I entered GOLD long via YGZ5 this morning at 1123, I was surprised price came to that level in two days and it makes me nervous too....again question is safe heaven status is gone or still there? Monthly VWAP at 1118 and last weeks VPOC at 1107 is a good support let's see how it holds, I am planing for a very long hold on this GOLD may be back to 1500's....

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  #124 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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CTICK improving, ZN decreasing, TRIN decreased and VIX decreased...may be bottom is near ...I exited my short at 1925...still have long hoping for a bounce to exit long and reshort because of all these internals....

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  #125 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I am definetly not good in day trading ...I lost few point trying to find bottom...still have one long though

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  #126 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Overall around 32 handles profit but damn I did panicked and made mistakes...

1. Got out of short early before hitting my target.
2. Got into long early and didn't close it

At the end of day I left with positions

One short ESZ5 @ 1919 (Panic short....damn damn)
One long ESH6 @ 1924.5
One long YGZ5 @ 1123

Have a good day...For now plan is to get out long and manage short...I still biased towards short because of retest of 1800 is dancing in my mind....

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Market Wizard
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Damn Damn someone plz kick me in my rearend...I am net short now but poor entry

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  #128 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Wow! My head is spinning with these moves overnight....Here are the levels I am watching today to get out of long position

1949 Last week LVN

1956 Monthly VWAP

1981 Last week's VPOC

Prices seems to be stalled at last weeks low at 1935 area and weekly vwap at 1940....

Still have same positions after I closed my latest short entry at breakeven

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  #129 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Did few stupid trades in the end...did well sitting on my hands but closed both positions for a loss and went just short seeing CTICK lows and break of VPOC towards down and overall markets inability to break above last weeks lows but it immediately bought up and market pretty balanced right no edge here so went neutral again with Jan Contract...I know I know...

Only good thing today is my GOLD trade...hope it will reach 1300 soon, if I get atleast 20 point cushion I will add to my gold trade...

So positions so far...

One short ESZ5 at 1926.25
One long ESH6 at 1922
One long YGZ5 at 1123

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  #130 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Few charts I started to analyze to get bigger as well as short term picture



Weekly chart is kind of want to break that flag/triangle are but is very resilient...



Same situation with daily chart but looking like it wants some push to breakdown but bulls will get lot of help from central bankers etc.



2 hr char is looking like it want to go up but with lot of resistance at

last weeks low @ 1935
Weekly VWAP @ 1938
Last weeks LVN @ 1949
Monthly VWAP @ 1955

Plan

I must get long above 1935 area and hope this resistance doesn't meet

or

Get out of long at 1955 area and add to short with very tight stop because there is no resistance till 1981

or

Get short if price is not able to get above 1935 area

My inability to read intra day manipulations combined with market volatility is keeping me second guessing all the time

Edit: I want to say STOPS will be cleared on the upside before going down, we will see...I want to position myself for that

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Market Wizard
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You got to be seriously kidding me...freaking market

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Market Wizard
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Hmm...this is not what I expected atleast short term but yesterday internal were diverging that would have been it...In any case now I have re-analyize this i.e either to add to short or not? that will be based on break of 1900 level for 1800's but the problem is now everyone will be looking for it...

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Market Wizard
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Another thing to notice is there is no extreme tick yet to even think about reversal maybe I should wait extreme tick and consider reversal....

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Market Wizard
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Did I say Holy GOLD!...only regret is I was hesitant to add yesterday at 1128, hindsight I shouldaaaa

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  #135 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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I am second thoughts on my bearish bias because of this price action...it's not able to break down convincingly, so I closed my ES positions for small profit...

I want to go long with today's low as stop but I would like to see retest of today's low and bounce...


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Market Wizard
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I couldn't get long because price moved fast...Now it is above Y-LOW and trying to breaking opening 25 min range....I want to get long if it holds above Y-LOW and see how it goes from there

Edit: Just now got TICK exhaustion too but it might be continuation also...and surprisingly on a down day I didn't get any sell side TICK exhaustion...

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Market Wizard
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Wow! I lost quick 2 points for trying to be cute and short ....next level for shorting is 1925 (I am worried about these constant extreme TICKS)

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  #138 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Got back into short again at 1923 will give it some time for this...stop would be close above Weekly VWAP at 1930 area...

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Got back into short again at 1923 will give it some time for this...stop would be close above Weekly VWAP at 1930 area...


wow! this is amazing all the resistance are gone in matter of 3-4 hours....added to short at 1949 (Monthly VWAP and Last weeks VLVN) bringing average to 1936....One day I go home without hedge and this happens...

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Market Wizard
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wow! this is amazing all the resistance are gone in matter of 3-4 hours....added to short at 1949 (Monthly VWAP and Last weeks VLVN) bringing average to 1936....One day I go home without hedge and this
happens...


Closed one at 1942 still think it will reach VWAP at 1933...there is all support from 1937, 1936 and 1933...will have to manage existing one with average of 1936....

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Market Wizard
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Today's close is very important I think...if it closes above last weeks low then game over for bears with upcoming earning season coming anything can happen...

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Market Wizard
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I think this will be a range day with CTICK at high and price is trying to get out of VWAP so went neutral by adding a long ES...

Edit: Still close is very critical....

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Market Wizard
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This is one jackass market...kind of range day becomes trend day with YM around plus 100...Now the key is to manage two positions...I missed my entry to add to the downside now I have to wait...

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Market Wizard
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Going home short ....

This market couldn't close above last week's low and weekly VWAP even after all these moves...

I entered short at 1921 so my average on short is 1929.

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Going home short ....

This market couldn't close above last week's low and weekly VWAP even after all these moves...

I entered short at 1921 so my average on short is 1929.

Flat again i.e going home 1 long ES and 1 short ES...want to sleep peacefully over the weekend but my bias is SHORT, let's see how it plays out next week.

1 ESZ5 short 1929
1 ESH6 long 1928
1 YGZ5 long 1123

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Market Wizard
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I am so much depressed and dejected about trading....my gold trade was good but now looks shaky, my calls on ES were good but I am unable to take advantage of them...I am kind of freaking out and thinking is it worth at all...

I added to my gold trade at 1131 getting my average to 1127 with stop for one contract at breakeven....

I still have 1 ESZ5 Long (1908) and 1 ESH6 Short (1899)...I became a crappy day trader....

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
I am so much depressed and dejected about trading....my gold trade was good but now looks shaky, my calls on ES were good but I am unable to take advantage of them...I am kind of freaking out and thinking is it worth at all...

I added to my gold trade at 1131 getting my average to 1127 with stop for one contract at breakeven....

I still have 1 ESZ5 Long (1908) and 1 ESH6 Short (1899)...I became a crappy day trader....


Closed ESH6 Short (1899) at 1878...just left out with long

Edit: What a freaking timing...

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bmtrading9 View Post
I am so much depressed and dejected about trading....my gold trade was good but now looks shaky, my calls on ES were good but I am unable to take advantage of them...I am kind of freaking out and thinking is it worth at all...

I added to my gold trade at 1131 getting my average to 1127 with stop for one contract at breakeven....

I still have 1 ESZ5 Long (1908) and 1 ESH6 Short (1899)...I became a crappy day trader....

This is something I found from an online blog.

It is not meant to be easy to do all this; in fact it's meant to be very hard. If it were easy, anyone can do it. Almost everyone knows what it takes; few can actually do it consistently. That is the challenge. When adversity strikes even when you are doing the right things, it is not unfortunate because greatness is not just about doing the right things, but doing them even when they cause pain and discomfort - weathering the tough times is the inherent prerequisite for being great.
Adversity is built into the game and therefore it's not an unfortunate set-back that is keeping you from your potential; rather your potential is cut very short without being able to deal well with adversity. So expect gerat results long-term, but adversity and ups and downs short-term. It’s got to always be about doing the long-term beneficial, not the short-term pleasurable. And we dont deviate from that, no matter the pressure. And we relish the opportunity to be mentally tough when adversity strikes when so many would wilt and when it feels so unnatural to be optimistic and confident. That is the real goal and priority.
Now keep conditioning - constantly reprocess and replace any thoughts that are not in line with all of this. It will take a great commitment to unlearn old thinking patterns and instill a new way of thinking to the point of habit. And you can do it.

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Market Wizard
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This is something I found from an online blog.

It is not meant to be easy to do all this; in fact it's meant to be very hard. If it were easy, anyone can do it. Almost everyone knows what it takes; few can actually do it consistently. That is the challenge. When adversity strikes even when you are doing the right things, it is not unfortunate because greatness is not just about doing the right things, but doing them even when they cause pain and discomfort - weathering the tough times is the inherent prerequisite for being great.
Adversity is built into the game and therefore it's not an unfortunate set-back that is keeping you from your potential; rather your potential is cut very short without being able to deal well with adversity. So expect gerat results long-term, but adversity and ups and downs short-term. Itís got to always be about doing the long-term beneficial, not the short-term pleasurable. And we dont deviate from that, no matter the pressure. And we relish the opportunity to be mentally tough when adversity strikes when so many would wilt and when it feels so unnatural to be optimistic and confident. That is the real goal and priority.
Now keep conditioning - constantly reprocess and replace any thoughts that are not in line with all of this. It will take a great commitment to unlearn old thinking patterns and instill a new way of thinking to the point of habit. And you can do it.

Rahul, Thanks I know that it's not supposed to be easy...it mainly due to my fear I am suffering...I am sure I will conquer my fear but it is taking awfully long...

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Market Wizard
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bmtrading9 View Post
Closed ESH6 Short (1899) at 1878...just left out with long

Edit: What a freaking timing...

Added to my long at 1880.75 so average is now at 1894.

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Rahul, Thanks I know that it's not supposed to be easy...it mainly due to my fear I am suffering...I am sure I will conquer my fear but it is taking awfully long...

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Emotions are the ebb and flow of life. They are only a problem when we loss control of them. You cannot get rid of emotions unless we scoop out part of our brain. Emotions and thoughts are essentially energy. When we suppress or express a feeling, it tends to leave an energy imprint in our body. These trapped emotions play a vital role in forming beliefs / habits and how we respond to a future event. The emotions you feel today of frustration, disappointment and fear will contribute to your pattern behavior in future. The right way to deal with emotions is to feel and release it instead of suppressing / expressing it. There are few methods mentioned elsewhere in the forum including Sedona Method , Emotion Code, Dr Hawkins method etc.

One aspect of gaining control of emotions is mindfulness. It doesnt mean controlling thoughts or clearing your mind but learn to observe your mind / thoughts. This will awaken the observer and create the awareness of distance between you and your thoughts. Once you practice mindfulness, body awareness, you will start feeling the body sensations associated with emotions.

When I feel a negative emotion, I use Hawkins method to release them. You may do it after the fact too. Essentially , feel the emotions / feelings / sensations associated with the emotions, feel and experience it . Breathe nice and deep. Sit with the feeling until it start fading away. Do it anytime when you experience a negative emotion.

All these will take practice but it will improve every aspect of your life not just trading. Honestly this aspect is the biggest blessing after I choose to trade full time. It has taken me in a direction where it forced me to work on my personal flaws.

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Market Wizard
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rahulgopi View Post
Emotions are the ebb and flow of life. They are only a problem when we loss control of them. You cannot get rid of emotions unless we scoop out part of our brain. Emotions and thoughts are essentially energy. When we suppress or express a feeling, it tends to leave an energy imprint in our body. These trapped emotions play a vital role in forming beliefs / habits and how we respond to a future event. The emotions you feel today of frustration, disappointment and fear will contribute to your pattern behavior in future. The right way to deal with emotions is to feel and release it instead of suppressing / expressing it. There are few methods mentioned elsewhere in the forum including Sedona Method , Emotion Code, Dr Hawkins method etc.

One aspect of gaining control of emotions is mindfulness. It doesnt mean controlling thoughts or clearing your mind but learn to observe your mind / thoughts. This will awaken the observer and create the awareness of distance between you and your thoughts. Once you practice mindfulness, body awareness, you will start feeling the body sensations associated with emotions.

When I feel a negative emotion, I use Hawkins method to release them. You may do it after the fact too. Essentially , feel the emotions / feelings / sensations associated with the emotions, feel and experience it . Breathe nice and deep. Sit with the feeling until it start fading away. Do it anytime when you experience a negative emotion.

All these will take practice but it will improve every aspect of your life not just trading. Honestly this aspect is the biggest blessing after I choose to trade full time. It has taken me in a direction where it forced me to work on my personal flaws.

Rahul your posts are GOLDEN

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bmtrading9 View Post
Added to my long at 1880.75 so average is now at 1894.

Added to ES at 1876 to quickly stop out for 1.5 but my average on 2 contracts is 1888...

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Market Wizard
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Bad blood moon day for me...realized around 30 handle loss total ....still have one long ESZ5 avg at 1879...I will sit on it and lick my wounds....I am ok with today as my 10 day ADR was showing at 36 handles, I entered positions accordingly but Mr. Market have other thoughts...

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Market Wizard
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Bought 3 SPY Nov 190 calls at 5:60

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Hi

You are clearly more experienced than me and hence I was hesitant to point this out. However, since you have read my posts and familiar with my ups/downs and psychology, I feel confident that you will take this in the right spirit.

I went through your last few days posts. I am glad that you are AWARE of your emotions and that's is clearly an advantage. Next step is what to do with them. @rahulgopi posted great responses about many methods of managing them and even using them to improve our performance. I don't have anything else to add except one thing.

Trade with a size and instrument which gives you an 'I don't care' attitude. For me, it was SPY. I followed this advice from @Big Mike for 3 months early this year and it truly transformed my approach to trading. It's no longer fear or exuberance based. Hence the dejection or elation I experience is minimal now. Infact, when I feel such strong emotions, I swiftly switch to SPY (and not ES) as I hate sitting in the sidelines.


Some of your emotions during the last 2 days


bmtrading9 View Post
Bad blood moon day for me...


bmtrading9 View Post
What a freaking timing...


bmtrading9 View Post
I am so much depressed and dejected about trading...


bmtrading9 View Post
..want to sleep peacefully over the weekend


bmtrading9 View Post
This is one jackass market...


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Narcissus View Post

Trade with a size and instrument which gives you an 'I don't care' attitude.

I totally agree with you but once we taste success with futures/options it is hard to go back to stocks/etf, I know that's the bad thing. I know my issue, I am second guessing everything my plan, my ability etc. by comparing with this abundance of information...that second guessing is direct result of recent memory (either good or bad) and of course size of instrument.

I personally feel this price action we cannot get later, I like volatility/range days and I make money in volatile period but this kind of volatility is kind of new to most of them and I am sure every swing/short term trader is going thru some kind of emotions doesn't matter how small or big the position size is...

Monthly Options is one more instrument I am comfortable with so kind of looking at it...

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Market Wizard
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Quoting 
still have one long ESZ5 avg at 1879...

Hedged at right time my long because I didn't feel long right

1. because we have everyone expecting new lows to be tested, that makes it tough for new longs to enter so they will wait for new lows

2. Volume at those sells is too high

I am kind of getting worried about my gold trade too...I thought I got it right on that one...should have taken out at 1150 but was looking for big swing

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Market Wizard
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Stopped out of my One contract of YG for breakeven with 1127.

Still have ES spread and SPY calls...

Thinking to short ES at W-HVN 1892 or 1897 Y-POC and Last weeks Low

I think this is going to be a range day so trying to position that way...

Edit: Looks like weekly VWAP is acting a resistance for now...

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Market Wizard
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Instead went long at VWAP...

Edit: Closed it for a small profit....

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Market Wizard
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Todays plan

Europe annouced more QE and combination of oversold gave this bounce which is already 75% of 10 day ADR

Got back into short ES at 1898.50 last weeks low and planning to add at last weeks LVN or last weeks VPOC with target to 24 hr VWAP of 1890 then weekly VWAP of 1882 area....to go swing long....

Price is getting accepted at these levels making me nervous about the trade, I am sure sellers will show up and push the price to VWAP levels...

Still have gold (pains of swing if takes profits price will move away, if not price goes down...I cannot scale in and scale down for obvious reasons)--surely context is lost but still holding support at 1120 so holding on to it for a bigger move

Still have SPY NOV calls

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Market Wizard
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Price is getting accepted exactly at my price of short...ideally I want it to reach 1880 and reverse and I am trying to position for that...if not add to short at 1930 area confluence of monthly VWAP and weekly high

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Market Wizard
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Closed SPY Nov calls for price seems struggling, will take what I have...

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Market Wizard
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I was in nice short overnight at 1927 and couldn't hold it....now I am flat, looking for reversal entry towards long...

I have few places in mind

Weekly VWAP 1890,

Weekly HVN 1875

Yesterday's low 1871

Weekly VWAP 1865 or

Close above last weeks low of 1897....The issue here is all these places are at-least 10 handle difference

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Market Wizard
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Hmm...that was very fast...close is important, I strongly believe another leg up is coming my reasons

1. We tested 1860's support area and bounced

2. We went up yesterday for window dressing and came back down hart today but looks like this downside move is also absorbed.

3. Upcoming earnings season is another reason for bulls for a hope...so I will try to buy the dip at key locations and hold it...

I was hesitant to pull the trigger at 1893 area because of multiple support areas and TICK was at lows...but if this closes above last weeks low I am entering in and holding it...or to be safe side buy calls again and hold them this time.

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Market Wizard
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Ha ha hindsight...MY BIGGEST PROBLEM is for some reason if I miss the entry in my direction then I want to go and take the trade in OTHER direction...which I have to control to get another setup...

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Market Wizard
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Oh my I forgot tomorrow is NFP day so just no trades till then

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Market Wizard
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This GOLD does't seem to catch bid...I am used to price almost immediately go against me before but this GOLD trade is kind of new perfectly got my analysis and entry was good and almost in a day or two went up 40 points, gave me confidence then it's all downwards...I didn't book my profits because my trade for a long long time and I don't believe changing macro contexts in a day or two (I always surprise by reading some of Guru's post how often they change macro context's )

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Market Wizard
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Wow! I am glad I am flat this morning, it could have gone either way...I feel now market get's it more down until QE is announced and rate hike is out of question...so short term bearish and to the year end bullish....sell the rips but the issue is now everyone would be thinking the same way i.e sell the rips which makes it tough....

Atleast GOLD catched a bid here because maybe of no rate hike

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Market Wizard
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Short at 1898, will try to add it again at 1920's.

Edit: Hindsight I overlooked Monthly VWAP and Y-POC that would have been a better entry instead I entered at Y-LVN area

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Market Wizard
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Wow! Would like to add at weekly HVN are and monthly 1913 area....this is what I expected in the morning and due to issues my TOS platform, I didn't had access to my charts and once I get access and jumped in too early for a day trade, now issue would be converting my brain thinking convert it to swing, convert it to swing let's see....

Edit: Entered one more at 1911 with average of 1904.5

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Market Wizard
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Exited one contract for a loss still unbelievable what I did and how didn't follow my own plan...will add second contract at 1929 area

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Market Wizard
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Puked...Just insane, Still short with one contract...huge dent in account plus confidence have to take break and re group after couple of weeks...good luck to all

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Market Wizard
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Wow! Trade Mindefully by Gary Dayton is a great book so far my issues

1. Heuristic - mental short cut

2. Representativeness Heuristic - Mental shortcut that looks for similarity between the current situation or event and its overall class as a way to judge probability.

3. Intuitive and Deliberative thinking - Intuitive mind, quick and efficient, is exceptionally poor at determining probabilities, a key skill in trading i.e determining probabilities is IMPORTANT for trading success....

so basically after sometime (how much time only god knows) when trading you will develop intuitive mindset as good as deliberate mindset in identifying the trades...so intuitiveness will be ingrained in your brain and trading be like answering what is 2+2 instead of hitting a mental blind-spot...

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bmtrading9 View Post
Wow! Trade Mindefully by Gary Dayton is a great book so far my issues

1. Heuristic - mental short cut

2. Representativeness Heuristic - Mental shortcut that looks for similarity between the current situation or event and its overall class as a way to judge probability.

3. Intuitive and Deliberative thinking - Intuitive mind, quick and efficient, is exceptionally poor at determining probabilities, a key skill in trading i.e determining probabilities is IMPORTANT for trading success....

so basically after sometime (how much time only god knows) when trading you will develop intuitive mindset as good as deliberate mindset in identifying the trades...so intuitiveness will be ingrained in your brain and trading be like answering what is 2+2 instead of hitting a mental blind-spot...

Trade Mindfully is one among the best trading psychology book I have read. I have read "Thinking Fast and Slow" by Daniel K before, Gary adopted the best in that book and combined it with mindfulness to create a good solution for traders. Keep practicing it and it will work well.

Please note when you practice mindfulness, idea is not to quiet the mind and suppress or control thoughts, but to just observe them. Trying to quiet the mind or control thoughts is another way to manufacture stress and disappointment. Once the observer aspect is enhanced, you wont get attached to thoughts unconsciously and they will just fade away. Once you are mindful, what ever you do will be your conscious choice, not driven by automatic impulsive and emotional response.

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Market Wizard
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Wow! I am glad I am flat this morning, it could have gone either way...I feel now market get's it more down until QE is announced and rate hike is out of question...so short term bearish and to the year end bullish....sell the rips but the issue is now everyone would be thinking the same way i.e sell the rips which makes it tough....

Atleast GOLD catched a bid here because maybe of no rate hike

Wow! this my immediate analysis after seeing the price action after the NFP report.

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Market Wizard
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Nothing changed in big picture in GOLD so still long...

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Market Wizard
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ES monthly in every correction in last TEN years everytime tested the lows before going high will it be different this time?

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Market Wizard
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Amazing how I screwed up in just one and half days

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Market Wizard
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Closed my Mini Gold position from 1923 to 1135...tossed my long term analysis because I am way beyond my panic levels on this slow grid up on my ES short...

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Market Wizard
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So a close grind up day without any pull back is what I don't wanted but that's what I got and it's not new to me but I am surprised that this is happening in downtrend market....now the issue would be everyone will expecting a pull back to get back in and that makes it a tough trade...still adamantly short because

1. I see divergences all over the place
2. There is no clear advantage in getting back long now
3. I didn't find any clear cut news like QE etc for this two day ramp up.

Two days in a row same mistakes done...feeling crappy, now I am totally re-thinking my whole swing trading idea with ES.

Good thing is I do have a day job and doing better financially and god blessed me with good family...ya two day bump but that's not the end of life, it moves on...

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So a close grind up day without any pull back is what I don't wanted but that's what I got and it's not new to me but I am surprised that this is happening in downtrend market....now the issue would be everyone will expecting a pull back to get back in and that makes it a tough trade...still adamantly short because

1. I see divergences all over the place
2. There is no clear advantage in getting back long now
3. I didn't find any clear cut news like QE etc for this two day ramp up.

Two days in a row same mistakes done...feeling crappy, now I am totally re-thinking my whole swing trading idea with ES.

Good thing is I do have a day job and doing better financially and god blessed me with good family...ya two day bump but that's not the end of life, it moves on...

Sorry for the losses you took.
The biggest clue that you may have overlooked yesterday, when you say you were surprised by the grind up day, was that volume breadth was extremely bullish from open to close of RTH session. Also ticks were almost the entire session mainly above zero, and kept hitting +600 to +800 levels, while the -600 level was never reached.
Last friday, volume breadth was very bearish when market opened, but from 11:00 est, that changed, together with the ticks hitting the +800 level, a couple of times. When volume breadth makes a switch from either extremely bullish or bearish, to neutral, and certainly in the early part of the session, you have to be aware that there could be a strong directional move coming (always keep an eye on ticks also).
I don't know if you have a method or something to determine when volume breadth is extreme or not, but for the ticks, you can easily draw, for example, horizontal lines at 600 ticks, 800 ticks, 1000 ticks, above and below zero, and place sound alerts on the horizontal lines, so you will be alerted when ticks hit significant levels.
Now, of course, there is more than just volume breadth and ticks, but by just looking at these 2 internals, you can have a good idea if the possibility of a strong directional move is present.

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Market Wizard
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geez View Post
Sorry for the losses you took.
The biggest clue that you may have overlooked yesterday, when you say you were surprised by the grind up day, was that volume breadth was extremely bullish from open to close of RTH session. Also ticks were almost the entire session mainly above zero, and kept hitting +600 to +800 levels, while the -600 level was never reached.
Last friday, volume breadth was very bearish when market opened, but from 11:00 est, that changed, together with the ticks hitting the +800 level, a couple of times. When volume breadth makes a switch from either extremely bullish or bearish, to neutral, and certainly in the early part of the session, you have to be aware that there could be a strong directional move coming (always keep an eye on ticks also).
I don't know if you have a method or something to determine when volume breadth is extreme or not, but for the ticks, you can easily draw, for example, horizontal lines at 600 ticks, 800 ticks, 1000 ticks, above and below zero, and place sound alerts on the horizontal lines, so you will be alerted when ticks hit significant levels.
Now, of course, there is more than just volume breadth and ticks, but by just looking at these 2 internals, you can have a good idea if the possibility of a strong directional move is present.

Thanks alot. Ya that was clearly over looked, I was thinking about news and previous range days and more over my inability to cut the losses quickly combined with flip the overall context pushed me into holding it. I use $ADSPD and $VOLSPD along with CTICK and TICK for market internals along with vwap and vpoc etc to fine tune entries but just hit a mental block. I have in this situation before and my idea was to get long if it closes above previous weeks high but didn't followed my plan...I am waiting for pullback to get long. Do you use ADSPD and VOLSPD for your analysis as volume breadth

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Market Wizard
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There goes gold without me...I was thinking to get back this morning but too scared

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Kortrijk, Belgium
 
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Thanks alot. Ya that was clearly over looked, I was thinking about news and previous range days and more over my inability to cut the losses quickly combined with flip the overall context pushed me into holding it. I use $ADSPD and $VOLSPD along with CTICK and TICK for market internals along with vwap and vpoc etc to fine tune entries but just hit a mental block. I have in this situation before and my idea was to get long if it closes above previous weeks high but didn't followed my plan...I am waiting for pullback to get long. Do you use ADSPD and VOLSPD for your analysis as volume breadth

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For volume breadth, i use a indicator that measures $UVOLSPC against $DVOLSPC. These are the Tradestation symbols for S&P 500 (composite) up and down volume. Can't help you with the indicator, i'm afraid, since it's no longer available.

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Market Wizard
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There goes gold without me...I was thinking to get back this morning but too scared

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And got back in at 1144.50.

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Market Wizard
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On a longer time frame I have target as last weeks high (1943) if we break Y-VPOC with some support at Y-LVN(1960)...realistic target would be at 1937 (I guess).

On GOLD I am watching 100SMA on daily, this is 10th attempt to take out that level in one year, hopefully it will take out and close above it solidly.

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Market Wizard
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USDJPY and HYG is driving this market...

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Market Wizard
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Stopped on Gold for a scratch...hit resistance and came back maybe a fake breakdown to get weak hands out, I am one of those.

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Market Wizard
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Went long ES in the morning, couldn't close my longs because I was dropping kid at school but now short. Internals are confusing as well again today...Hindsight I missed a 10 point on my long, I closed it flat.

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Market Wizard
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Still short with one contract...obviously not liking the action here...USDJPY is down, HYG is coming down, ZN perking up, Oil is coming down hopefully stars are getting aligned...in this kind of bad trade after a very very long time...Friday ramp caught me off guard and Monday's and Today's p/a after showing weakness over night and reverse is kind of tough

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Market Wizard
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This market practically went from sell the rips to buy the dips on a bad jobs report in just 2 days...so I am kind ready to throw the towel in and flip long but common sense is not letting me do that...few mistakes I did/doing...

1. Didn't react to the price action quick enough due to news.

2. Didn't followed the plan because of news and bearish reaction after the news.

3. Even though mine is a swing trade on a larger timeframe emotions are getting tough to control.

4. I read in the book that fear/anxiety is common in trading even for well experienced traders, best way to cope up is just to follow the plan.

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Market Wizard
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Market ignoring bad data o/n and trying to front run QE announcement...I am ready to flip long but not just yet because

1. We don't have any concrete evidence that QE is on the table, Fed discussed about negative rates but I dont remember QE was mentioned before.
2. NYMO at extremely high reading of 80.
3. We are top of the range at daily charts
4. Slight possibility of H&S pattern and 50DMA resistance
5. We are in a downtrend and well below 200DMA

That being said every dip is getting bought overnight which is a concern for bears...

My plan is to wait and see what happens next after FOMC. If there is any QE I have to go long...

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Market Wizard
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Not an easy task emotionally, my only fear is what if I am right afterall with the short? How do you guys cope up with these kind of emotions.

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Market Wizard
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I watched watched watched and successfully entered at top tick just to close it for one point loss...back to net short...damn..

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Market Wizard
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Buying panic...looks lime I am not the top tick afterall

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Market Wizard
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It looks I have to give up shorting all together because

1. I read somewhere most indicators works well spotting lows so algos works on indicators and find the bottom easly
2. I think I am good at identifying bottoms...once I fail to act I go opposite and suffer slow painful torture.


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Market Wizard
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That GOLD tricked me yesterday everyone and now moving up, is this the starting of an up trend?

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Market Wizard
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Still holding bag with one short on ES...whenever I try to go long market looks like it want to puke and my mind constantly keep telling stupid you waited this long, look at daily chart, how can one go long...other voice keep reminding me that you moron look at these last three days and last three years market will never go down then immediately other voice comes back and this battle is going on...I stopped looking at the every tick which is good thing...

Reasons for short

1. Top of the range....NYMO at extreme readings, blah blah...

Reasons for long

1. Markets had plenty of opportunities to go down, it just just churning to frustrate shorts and might rip...

I want to enter long on pull backs with caution but that pullback will not happen when everyone is expecting as simple as that...

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Market Wizard
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I thought flipping opinions/trades is easy but it seems to be very very difficult.

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