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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #181 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

So a close grind up day without any pull back is what I don't wanted but that's what I got and it's not new to me but I am surprised that this is happening in downtrend market....now the issue would be everyone will expecting a pull back to get back in and that makes it a tough trade...still adamantly short because

1. I see divergences all over the place
2. There is no clear advantage in getting back long now
3. I didn't find any clear cut news like QE etc for this two day ramp up.

Two days in a row same mistakes done...feeling crappy, now I am totally re-thinking my whole swing trading idea with ES.

Good thing is I do have a day job and doing better financially and god blessed me with good family...ya two day bump but that's not the end of life, it moves on...

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  #182 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kortrijk, Belgium
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 627 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 784 given, 656 received


bmtrading9 View Post
So a close grind up day without any pull back is what I don't wanted but that's what I got and it's not new to me but I am surprised that this is happening in downtrend market....now the issue would be everyone will expecting a pull back to get back in and that makes it a tough trade...still adamantly short because

1. I see divergences all over the place
2. There is no clear advantage in getting back long now
3. I didn't find any clear cut news like QE etc for this two day ramp up.

Two days in a row same mistakes done...feeling crappy, now I am totally re-thinking my whole swing trading idea with ES.

Good thing is I do have a day job and doing better financially and god blessed me with good family...ya two day bump but that's not the end of life, it moves on...

Sorry for the losses you took.
The biggest clue that you may have overlooked yesterday, when you say you were surprised by the grind up day, was that volume breadth was extremely bullish from open to close of RTH session. Also ticks were almost the entire session mainly above zero, and kept hitting +600 to +800 levels, while the -600 level was never reached.
Last friday, volume breadth was very bearish when market opened, but from 11:00 est, that changed, together with the ticks hitting the +800 level, a couple of times. When volume breadth makes a switch from either extremely bullish or bearish, to neutral, and certainly in the early part of the session, you have to be aware that there could be a strong directional move coming (always keep an eye on ticks also).
I don't know if you have a method or something to determine when volume breadth is extreme or not, but for the ticks, you can easily draw, for example, horizontal lines at 600 ticks, 800 ticks, 1000 ticks, above and below zero, and place sound alerts on the horizontal lines, so you will be alerted when ticks hit significant levels.
Now, of course, there is more than just volume breadth and ticks, but by just looking at these 2 internals, you can have a good idea if the possibility of a strong directional move is present.

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  #183 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary



geez View Post
Sorry for the losses you took.
The biggest clue that you may have overlooked yesterday, when you say you were surprised by the grind up day, was that volume breadth was extremely bullish from open to close of RTH session. Also ticks were almost the entire session mainly above zero, and kept hitting +600 to +800 levels, while the -600 level was never reached.
Last friday, volume breadth was very bearish when market opened, but from 11:00 est, that changed, together with the ticks hitting the +800 level, a couple of times. When volume breadth makes a switch from either extremely bullish or bearish, to neutral, and certainly in the early part of the session, you have to be aware that there could be a strong directional move coming (always keep an eye on ticks also).
I don't know if you have a method or something to determine when volume breadth is extreme or not, but for the ticks, you can easily draw, for example, horizontal lines at 600 ticks, 800 ticks, 1000 ticks, above and below zero, and place sound alerts on the horizontal lines, so you will be alerted when ticks hit significant levels.
Now, of course, there is more than just volume breadth and ticks, but by just looking at these 2 internals, you can have a good idea if the possibility of a strong directional move is present.

Thanks alot. Ya that was clearly over looked, I was thinking about news and previous range days and more over my inability to cut the losses quickly combined with flip the overall context pushed me into holding it. I use $ADSPD and $VOLSPD along with CTICK and TICK for market internals along with vwap and vpoc etc to fine tune entries but just hit a mental block. I have in this situation before and my idea was to get long if it closes above previous weeks high but didn't followed my plan...I am waiting for pullback to get long. Do you use ADSPD and VOLSPD for your analysis as volume breadth

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #184 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

There goes gold without me...I was thinking to get back this morning but too scared

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #185 (permalink)
Elite Member
Kortrijk, Belgium
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Tradestation
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 627 since Sep 2011
Thanks: 784 given, 656 received


bmtrading9 View Post
Thanks alot. Ya that was clearly over looked, I was thinking about news and previous range days and more over my inability to cut the losses quickly combined with flip the overall context pushed me into holding it. I use $ADSPD and $VOLSPD along with CTICK and TICK for market internals along with vwap and vpoc etc to fine tune entries but just hit a mental block. I have in this situation before and my idea was to get long if it closes above previous weeks high but didn't followed my plan...I am waiting for pullback to get long. Do you use ADSPD and VOLSPD for your analysis as volume breadth

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

For volume breadth, i use a indicator that measures $UVOLSPC against $DVOLSPC. These are the Tradestation symbols for S&P 500 (composite) up and down volume. Can't help you with the indicator, i'm afraid, since it's no longer available.

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  #186 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


bmtrading9 View Post
There goes gold without me...I was thinking to get back this morning but too scared

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

And got back in at 1144.50.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #187 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

On a longer time frame I have target as last weeks high (1943) if we break Y-VPOC with some support at Y-LVN(1960)...realistic target would be at 1937 (I guess).

On GOLD I am watching 100SMA on daily, this is 10th attempt to take out that level in one year, hopefully it will take out and close above it solidly.

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  #188 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
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Please register on futures.io to view futures trading content such as post attachment(s), image(s), and screenshot(s).


USDJPY and HYG is driving this market...

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  #189 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary

Stopped on Gold for a scratch...hit resistance and came back maybe a fake breakdown to get weak hands out, I am one of those.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A using Tapatalk

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  #190 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,789 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,908 given, 2,010 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


Went long ES in the morning, couldn't close my longs because I was dropping kid at school but now short. Internals are confusing as well again today...Hindsight I missed a 10 point on my long, I closed it flat.

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