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A Cowboy's Trading Journal
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A Cowboy's Trading Journal

  #101 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Big Mike View Post
Is this cash or sim?

Mike

Cash

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  #102 (permalink)
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bmtrading9 View Post
Cash

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You should go flat and take your lumps and try to learn the lesson prior to blowing up the account.

Tomorrow the Fed may save you, we may get a 75 point drop, but we may also crush shorts with a move to 2025 area.

I don't see any strategy here, I just see you trying to cover a mistake by selling more. And I see compounding of mistakes by exiting the winning trades early and letting the losers run (selling your long early, and selling more short).

When your plan turns to "worst case scenario hold until next week" you are in serious, serious trouble. I don't know how much leverage you are using, but can you survive a move to 2030? I would imagine that 2030 will take a lot of effort to move past, so you are probably safe from it moving beyond that between now and October's meeting, but the pattern of your behavior is leading you to ruin.

I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but it's likely to be volatile.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
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4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
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  #103 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: TOS
Broker/Data: IB
Favorite Futures: ES, YM, TF, CL, GC and ETF's
 
Posts: 1,677 since Mar 2013
Thanks: 2,724 given, 1,864 received
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Big Mike View Post
You should go flat and take your lumps and try to learn the lesson prior to blowing up the account.

Tomorrow the Fed may save you, we may get a 75 point drop, but we may also crush shorts with a move to 2025 area.

I don't see any strategy here, I just see you trying to cover a mistake by selling more. And I see compounding of mistakes by exiting the winning trades early and letting the losers run (selling your long early, and selling more short).

When your plan turns to "worst case scenario hold until next week" you are in serious, serious trouble. I don't know how much leverage you are using, but can you survive a move to 2030? I would imagine that 2030 will take a lot of effort to move past, so you are probably safe from it moving beyond that between now and October's meeting, but the pattern of your behavior is leading you to ruin.

I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but it's likely to be volatile.

Mike

Thanks Mike, Let me explain why I am doing front month spread trading...

1. I realized we are in range market not in a trend market

2. I tried to dip buy before that big drop because that's has been working since last 5 years but I was getting nervous even with
one contract, usually my pain tolerance level is high, so I hedged with front month short and came out kind of fine.

3. If you see the market has been in this range bound for last one month.

4. My idea is buy at support and sell at resistance but what you will do when resistance become breakout in just two days?
I am struggling changing my swing opinion based on one or two days of action.

As you observed it has not worked...

because I didn't wait for my exit on long at top of the range but why I didn't do it?
because market didn't reach that top of the range before but it reached today i.e 1992-1996
so I pulled the trigger early that was mistake one and added to it little early (3 points early) mistake two, looming critical FOMC and my thinking of pullback before FOMC pushed me into this situation.

Definitely I am going flat before FOMC, thanks for the suggestion, I definitely can't scalp for one or two points...swinging is the way to go but pain is also maximum (if you are on wrong side i.e when range becomes a trend and you are on the opposite side).

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  #104 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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TPO Single prints

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Any idea what happens if we have single prints in TPO? After all this whipsaws I am seeing price is still below the value area...maybe I am curve fitting, still trying to learn the concepts so any help will be appreciated.

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  #105 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Ten years monthly chart didn't even touch HVA's in both Volume profile and TPO so we cannot even call this a correction...maybe just a blip or deeper correction is on the horizon

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  #106 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Dallas, TX, USA
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
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Here is 2 hr ES chart since last FOMC meeting, see that spike up that's were market tried to get in everyone long again for ATH and from then it's a down drift....we are at a point of breakout and all depends on FOMC, maybe this time it is different...I am trying to understand why did we drop? is it China or FOMC or both?

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  #107 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Good morning and good luck to every trader on this very important day...

I sold one contract yesterday night at 1983 from my entry of 1979.5 still left out with one contract short and Nov puts on SPY.

I use Interactive Brokers, since it is FIFO it's getting very tough/confused with the average prices, anyone know how to change that?

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  #108 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Wow! look at the pain of squeeze, unfortunately I choose to be part of it. Anyone who have atleast little logic in them would ask the question after six years of ZIRP if economy is still not at what they want to be there has to be something fundamentally wrong isn't it? Position looked better with the initial drop but I choose to not to trade for next few days and left it...

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  #109 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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Holy crap!! What do you do now? that is one hell off a ride, reminds us we are still in range market not in a trend market....you got to be super human to trade this kind of a move.

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  #110 (permalink)
Site Administrator
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bmtrading9 View Post
Holy crap!! What do you do now? that is one hell off a ride, reminds us we are still in range market not in a trend market....you got to be super human to trade this kind of a move.

Actually the move was well under the average daily range of the last 20 days. I was expecting more out of such an important meeting.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

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