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You should go flat and take your lumps and try to learn the lesson prior to blowing up the account.
Tomorrow the Fed may save you, we may get a 75 point drop, but we may also crush shorts with a move to 2025 area.
I don't see any strategy here, I just see you trying to cover a mistake by selling more. And I see compounding of mistakes by exiting the winning trades early and letting the losers run (selling your long early, and selling more short).
When your plan turns to "worst case scenario hold until next week" you are in serious, serious trouble. I don't know how much leverage you are using, but can you survive a move to 2030? I would imagine that 2030 will take a lot of effort to move past, so you are probably safe from it moving beyond that between now and October's meeting, but the pattern of your behavior is leading you to ruin.
I don't know what will happen tomorrow, but it's likely to be volatile.
Thanks Mike, Let me explain why I am doing front month spread trading...
1. I realized we are in range market not in a trend market
2. I tried to dip buy before that big drop because that's has been working since last 5 years but I was getting nervous even with
one contract, usually my pain tolerance level is high, so I hedged with front month short and came out kind of fine.
3. If you see the market has been in this range bound for last one month.
4. My idea is buy at support and sell at resistance but what you will do when resistance become breakout in just two days?
I am struggling changing my swing opinion based on one or two days of action.
As you observed it has not worked...
because I didn't wait for my exit on long at top of the range but why I didn't do it?
because market didn't reach that top of the range before but it reached today i.e 1992-1996
so I pulled the trigger early that was mistake one and added to it little early (3 points early) mistake two, looming critical FOMC and my thinking of pullback before FOMC pushed me into this situation.
Definitely I am going flat before FOMC, thanks for the suggestion, I definitely can't scalp for one or two points...swinging is the way to go but pain is also maximum (if you are on wrong side i.e when range becomes a trend and you are on the opposite side).
Any idea what happens if we have single prints in TPO? After all this whipsaws I am seeing price is still below the value area...maybe I am curve fitting, still trying to learn the concepts so any help will be appreciated.
Ten years monthly chart didn't even touch HVA's in both Volume profile and TPO so we cannot even call this a correction...maybe just a blip or deeper correction is on the horizon
Here is 2 hr ES chart since last FOMC meeting, see that spike up that's were market tried to get in everyone long again for ATH and from then it's a down drift....we are at a point of breakout and all depends on FOMC, maybe this time it is different...I am trying to understand why did we drop? is it China or FOMC or both?
Wow! look at the pain of squeeze, unfortunately I choose to be part of it. Anyone who have atleast little logic in them would ask the question after six years of ZIRP if economy is still not at what they want to be there has to be something fundamentally wrong isn't it? Position looked better with the initial drop but I choose to not to trade for next few days and left it...
Holy crap!! What do you do now? that is one hell off a ride, reminds us we are still in range market not in a trend market....you got to be super human to trade this kind of a move.
