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This is my journal and my explanation of what I see in the market. Using moving averages to identify wave patterns and strength of market movement. Both critical to wave structures.
I use a fairly simple system. I remember Big Mike way back at the cafe. Journals probably could be written on both of our journeys since those days.
On the slight pull back tonight the market should go up and will be counting a small five pattern for turn point. I hate night markets as they often fluctuate farther then wave counts allow do to volume of traders. Oh well, one must trade what they have to work with.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Normally the biggest moves of the day are early in morning or end of day. Is it today? The two moving averages on the right charts have not indicated a solid trending market. So keep trading the swings. Like the lower left chart flattening out as indicating a possible turn also for a swing trade.
Just noticed that I have been posting the same chart. That will be hard to go back and evaluate. Drawing the line like this usually a good way to find a market turn. It often goes deep the other way. Not sure where this market is going, but faith it will show the next turn point. The last wave in my book appeared to be a C wave. So this one should be impulsive, too.
The market is at a crucial area of analysis when one could say, you love me you love me not. My thoughts are the red line for change. The bigger consolidation last night appears more a B wave then a two wave. B wave are usually bigger. Secondly, it is struggling hard to get to C=A destination. So I will look to reverse the position if the momentum down continues in a struggle. Looking for upwards here.
Thought it was going to turn (last post) and lost a couple hundred, but reversed quickly for the day and here is why. Look at upper right chart and notice consolidation 1 and consolidation 2. Notice consolidation 2 is larger then the 1. Which makes it a larger wave pattern. So I am thinking that is a wave B of sorts. So looking for turn at the red line. C=A theory. I would like this market to decide and make a run for a few days for a swing trade.
No matter what this forum individuals believe. One just has to look at the charts. 80% of the pull backs last night were winners and the same when the market turned up. Most traders never get that at all and also a good place to add on positions.
Love this pattern to enter on after a strong move. A fourth wave, abc, then a fifth wave failure. Sometimes it goes to barely to new lows, but most often not. Enter in this case on high of bar and stop below which was $125 protective stop for a return of?
Looking for a pull back for a wave 2 or B here. What is tricky with Elliott Wave theory that most do not address in how to trade it is this. What I call running corrective waves. You get a slight pull back for wave -a- then an inverted -b- follows with a slight -c- pull back and on the market goes. So never much of a pull back. The reason I like to use Wilders smoothie to identify market direction and wave patterns. To reverse most often position in the market. Not perfect, but close enough to catch the big runs. Great day trading.
When the market gets extreme away from the moving averages. One needs to look for a block of trading and take action. In this case it would be a short. So will try a short here with close stop.
5dn doesn't mean 5DN.