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Papa's Trading Journal

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  #61 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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The candle from 8:45 to 9am was an inside bar, but it closed very close to its low and before I could enter an order the 9-9:15 candle had gone below the low of the pre-open pit inside bar. I let it go and waited for the next setup. It came at 10 am. I was a bit leery of that candle since it was near the daily low, but I entered my order, was filled and reached my profit target. I confess, I used a smaller profit target since it was near the daily low. Shortly after I was out, the market reversed and went up. I put an order at the top of the inside bar, was filled, and the market hesitated. I got cold feet, took another reduced profit target, and then watched the market breakout to new highs for the day. But it didn't matter, I was a happy camper....no more inside bars before lunch, so I quit.

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  #62 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
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papa15 View Post
The candle from 8:45 to 9am was an inside bar, but it closed very close to its low and before I could enter an order the 9-9:15 candle had gone below the low of the pre-open pit inside bar. I let it go and waited for the next setup. It came at 10 am. I was a bit leery of that candle since it was near the daily low, but I entered my order, was filled and reached my profit target. I confess, I used a smaller profit target since it was near the daily low. Shortly after I was out, the market reversed and went up. I put an order at the top of the inside bar, was filled, and the market hesitated. I got cold feet, took another reduced profit target, and then watched the market breakout to new highs for the day. But it didn't matter, I was a happy camper....no more inside bars before lunch, so I quit.

Hey Papa15,

Do you have rules for trading around news?

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  #63 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Jeff
I do. I look at news announcements for the day and if I think any release is a major mkt mover, I hold off before and after the announcement. I do account for the oil inventory and watch closely on the natural gas inventory. I didn't give today's announcements much weight though. Tomorrow though is a different story.....

For all my rules, I essentially went through the Three Setups thread and copied what I saw as rules.....

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  #64 (permalink)
 Jeff Castille 
Northern California
 
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papa15 View Post
Jeff
I do. I look at news announcements for the day and if I think any release is a major mkt mover, I hold off before and after the announcement. I do account for the oil inventory and watch closely on the natural gas inventory. I didn't give today's announcements much weight though. Tomorrow though is a different story.....

For all my rules, I essentially went through the Three Setups thread and copied what I saw as rules.....

Hmmmmm........you know.....when I check the impact that a particuliar news event is suppose to have I am getting some conflicting information. On my "news " indicator, which I believe is fed by forex factory, it rated the 7:00 am pst news as high impact......yet when I look at the forex factory website the 7:00 news was rated "low" impact. This is troubling as I have been standing aside for both high and medium impact news announcements.

Perhaps I should not rely on the news indicator........might have to go back to checking every morning......

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  #65 (permalink)
 steve2222 
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Jeff Castille View Post
Hmmmmm........you know.....when I check the impact that a particuliar news event is suppose to have I am getting some conflicting information. On my "news " indicator, which I believe is fed by forex factory, it rated the 7:00 am pst news as high impact......yet when I look at the forex factory website the 7:00 news was rated "low" impact. This is troubling as I have been standing aside for both high and medium impact news announcements.

Perhaps I should not rely on the news indicator........might have to go back to checking every morning......

Jeff, what I have been doing is noting how CL reacts to various news releases in previous weeks and then using that information to decide if I will stand aside for a particular news release today.

This is because I believe that Forex Factory's weighting/importance is their preceived impact on the FX market, which may or may not impact CL to the same degree.

Having said that, I always stand aside for Oil, Gas and (Un) Employment news.

 
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  #66 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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I looked at today's announcement and it just did not register with me as something that has moved the market in the past....

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  #67 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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I deviated slightly from my plan today......

Market was up overnight; not a real surprise as I sort of thought the recent selling was a bit overdone. Had an inside bar form on the 20 min chart from 9:20 to 9:40, so set a sell stop at the low of the bar and was stopped in. Had a normal price target, but did not like the way the price action was going (every little selling burst was met with more buying) so after several minutes I cut the trade for a 1 tick profit. Market then went up. An inside bar completed on the 15 min chart at 10am, so I set a buy stop above it and was stopped in. Again, I did not like the way price was moving, just seemed dull and lifeless. I reached my profit target and gladly got out. Price then rapidly dropped. An outside bar appeared to be forming on the 20 min chart, so I set a sell stop and was stopped in. I normally don't play the outside bars so I set a reduced target, hit it, and called it a day.

An observation I have made watching CL for the last couple of months is that it has a strong tendency to do half gap fills. Today's half gap fill was from 95.96 down to 95.51. The market made an initial move as if going to do the fill (that was the 20 min IB play, but then it ran up). Its next attempt was on the outside bar play and it went on to make it. What I am missing is the ability to identify the false moves from the real ones....and until I do, I am sticking with the inside bar play (the outside bar play to me is a close cousin to the inside bar)

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  #68 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Today is the weekly oil inventory release at 10:30, so trading before the release is hazardous to your account (tread very softly if at all). Overnight there was some private firms release of oil inventory and it showed a huge buildup (more supply prices drop) and oil futures were down big. I watched the market action. One inside bar formed on the 10 min chart at 9:50 but prices were way low already and the oil news was only 40 min away, so I did not trade that candle. The 10:30 report came and the market took off like a rocket. The gov't report indicated an oil inventory drawdown (less supply, higher prices). But the rocket ran out of fuel and came back down. An inside candle formed at 10:50 on the 10 min charts. I did place a sell stop beneath the candle, was stopped in and profit target reached. I do use a slightly lower profit target on 10 min candles than 15 min ones. The candle from 10:50 to 11am ended with a long lower wick indicating buyers coming in to the market. Prices did push on into lunch with no more inside bars.

Trading over news is fraught with danger. Who knows what the news report will say, or better yet, what the market reaction to the news will be. I have seen a news report miss the projected number and the market react positively; I have seen better than expected numbers and the market plummet. It is just best to not trade over news releases. Give the beast some space and keep your money to trade another day.....

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  #69 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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News continues to have a major impact on the markets. Today's unemployment claims crossed the 500k threshold and reversed what looked like a positive mood for the market. Big drop as soon as the news was released at 8:30 Eastern. Had an inside bar form from 8:40 to 8:50 on the 10 min chart, and I took the trade. Made my profit goal. The 15 min bar that closed at 9 was an inside bar and I took that trade also and made profit. Had another inside bar form on the 10 min at 9:20 and took that also. Made goal and quit for the day. News was due out at 10 (Leading Indicators) and 10:30 (Nat gas inventory). I had already made the daily goal so I quit for the day.

The 10 min chart has looked promising. Obviously more signals can form, but for me, the biggest advantage is the range is less and thus the stops are not as big. I am still watching these, but have traded it some. I was not real comfortable doing the first trade before the pit opened in NY and I don't want to make that a habit.

Given that this is options expiration week and markets can do some funny things on Thursdays and Fridays of that week, I am probably done for the week. I had 9 trades this week. All 9 were profitable, although 1 only had a 1 tick profit. Seven were pure inside bar trades and 2 were its first cousin the outside bar.

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  #70 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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I just want to let everyone know my trades are real money trades. Just noticed the chart in the previous post indicates it is from the ToS papermoney chart. I made that after the fact on my laptop but traded live on the desktop. I shut down the live platform when I quit for the day (yes, something learned through the school of hard knocks).

The inside bar trading has made a huge impact on my results. To be very honest, I used to dread options expiration week when trading the ES. The volatility during the week wrecked havoc on my results. Switching from ES was a good thing IMHO and switching to IB trading was a great thing. My charts are cleaner, my head clearer, and the results much better.

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