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Papa's Trading Journal
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Papa's Trading Journal

  #551 (permalink)
Elite Member
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The market is in a down trend, so all trades Monday will be shorts. However, the market has done an unusal thing. It closed at, or right at, the low of the day on both Thursday and Friday. I fully expect some folks to perceive this as a buying opportunity and try to push the market up a bit. Using prior day price levels is difficult when the market closes right at the close. For tomorrow, I am adding in the Camarilla pivots, and will use those levels just as I use the prior day price levels....looking for shorts against resistance levels.

With the unusally wide range Friday, I expect tomorrow to be a much smaller trading range and trading opportunities will probably be limited for trend trades...I don't do trading range days well, so tomorrow may be one of very limited opportunities.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #552 (permalink)
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No cash trading today. I looked at the market last night and saw the big drop following the election in France. My instinct said it was a great place to buy, that the drop was a severe over-reaction. But I don't like to trade holding positions overnight, and who knows, the market could have continued on down. This morning I saw the market had regained most of the overnight lost ground, and as I write, it is well above today's open and Friday's close, and above my calculated bullish zone. I don't foresee a trade developing this morning, and I am going to do some chores after lunch. The last 3 days the market has moved beyond my skills, so I will just wait on the sidelines until things return to a little more "normal".....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades

Last edited by papa15; May 7th, 2012 at 04:55 PM.
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  #553 (permalink)
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Wake Forest, NC
 
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Glad I chose to sit out today. The market traded the RTH above my bullish zone for the most part, and my plan does not have any trades either above the bullish zone or below the bearish zone. If price is outside those areas, then I just don't have a trade. Period. I have learned this lesson by losing when trying to go outside these zones, so best to stand aside.

I think today's action is good for the market long term. If the market had continued the free fall from Friday, it would have bordered on panic selling. The overnight reaction to the Greek and French elections was a bit overdone. Today's RTH was fairly narrow range trading. To me the market is still in a downtrend, and I expect tomorrow to give us a resumption of the downward move, but in a more controlled fashion.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #554 (permalink)
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Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 586 given, 1,244 received

Green Day; Discipline Green (+3)

The market is in a downtrend on both the 1 day and 4 hour charts. Market was down a bit overnight. It opened the regular session slightly above yesterday's low; yesterday's close was a considerable distance above the open. Price immediately ran up to the pivot point and pulled back from that level. I shorted below the pivot as I waited for a few more minutes to pass to miss the opening chop. Price moved to the profit target fairly quickly. Price went back up to the pivot and turned back down. I shorted a second time with my target just above the previous low. Price went fairly quickly to the profit target.

I quit cash trading and went to vote in our primary.

I am glad I added the pivots back on to the chart. The pivot and associated pivot range do play a role in support and resistance. On a day like today with yesterday's close so far above the open, it would be difficult to get price to go in the direction of the trend (down) and then pullback to the close to fade it. Price really did not go with trend far enough to fade the open, but on the second touch of the pivot was an almost ideal entry. I did not take it since I had just exited the first trade a couple of minutes before and had walked away from the computer. Once I returned, I saw the set up and got onboard.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #555 (permalink)
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Green Day; Discipline Yellow (+1)

Market made an impressive recovery yesterday afternoon, but was still in a downtrend on the charts. Yesterday afternoon's gains were given up overnight. The market opened with an almost 28 point gap.

I stated last Friday that I should only take gaps that go with the trend. I did a bit of studying since then and realize that is not necessarily the right answer. Today, yesterday's close is above the pivot and central pivot zone (TC/BC). The central pivot zone will usually attract price. Today price opened with a 1 minute down bar, a green bar that deeply penetrated the first red bar and followed with a green bar with a long bottom wick....buyers were interested in taking price higher. I did a gap play and reached profit with little heat.

The ideal next trade should have been a fade of the central pivot zone, with entry at BC or the pivot point. I was looking for that, but then price had difficulty at the Camarilla L3. It spent 12 minutes choppy around that level and then 2 consecutive red bars closed below L3 on the 1 minute chart and I went ahead and entered. Market went my direction for a couple of minutes and then turned to give me heat. Price actually went to the BC of the central pivot range, giving me an ideal entry, and then it reversed down hitting my profit target. Took way too much heat on this trade. I should have had patience to wait for the ideal entry.

I enjoyed the MasterTheGap webinar yesterday. One take away I have is how Scott calculates his profit targets and stops using the ATR. I calculate bullish and bearish zones of where price should go to but on individual trades I don't normally expect to hold until those zones are reached. An argument could be made that I should do that, but at my present level of trading I am not sure I can. However, using a per centage of the 5 or even 10 day ATR as an individual trade profit target/stop loss makes more sense than using an arbitrary number, so I am looking to incorporate that, after I work on it in simulated trading. My first trade would have hit the larger target; the second trade would have stopped out. Had I taken the "ideal" trade it would have easily hit the profit target. Still much to learn....

I have attached a 1 min chart that I use to look at price when it gets to my key levels....I find it adds a bit of clarity. I trade off of a 5 or 15 minute chart, but once the trade conditions are right, I look at this smaller chart.....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-5-9.png  
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  #556 (permalink)
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Last few days have been quite interesting. Sunday's big drop down to the 2586 area was met by fairly steady buying throughout the night and into the Monday RTH. On the 4 hr chart price went up to the downward sloping 13 ema, pushed through, and then closed back in the vicinity of the EMA. Overnight Monday there was another drop but a little more orderly. On Tuesday's open, quick selloff down to the 2584 area which was met by buying driving the price back up, closing the RTH higher than it opened. Overnight last night was a fairly orderly drop in price and the market opened the RTH at 2595.5, down about 28 points from Tuesday's close. Price almost immediately started going up and turned back down at the central pivot zone. It then proceeded to go down to the 2585 area, where buyers stepped in again. On three separate occasions over the last 3 days, price has dropped to the 2585 area and immediately reversed up. I guess that might make 2585 a decent support area.....The price rose to almost match the high of yesterday. before dropping at the close to the central pivot area. Today's daily bar is actually an inside bar.

The central pivot area has been proven to be an area that price tends to go to.......

Today the market closed right at the 13 ema on the 4 hour chart, but the daily is still well below the ema. I consider the market still in a downtrend and will look mainly for short entries.

I do look at things other than price to ema to determine trend. I also consider the daily pivot vs the 3 day average of the pivot, and that factor is still bearish. I look to see where price closed the day vs the central pivot range. Today price closed above the CR, which would give a little bullish sentiment. However, another factor is the CPR itself. The CPR from today's price action is completely lower than yesterday's CPR and it is narrower. Being completely lower is a very bearish sign; being narrower means there is a potential for a big price move tomorrow. As of right now, it would appear tomorrow could be a big move down, but in reality will have to wait to see where the RTH opens tomorrow. The opening price in relation to today's price action and the CPR will tell if market sentiment changes overnight.

I have attached my big picture charts: 30 min, 240 min, and daily.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-screenshot-2012-05-09-16-57-43.png   Papa's Trading Journal-screenshot-2012-05-09-16-58-15.png  
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  #557 (permalink)
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Green Day; Discipline Green (+3)

Only 1 trade this morning, a gap play. I did use expanded target and stop based on the 5 day ATR, so my win was bigger than my normal win. Yeterday's close was slightly above the central pivot zone, so I felt price would at least get close to the close at some point today.....

Price went down immediately on the open of the ETH yesterday afternoon, making a quick 20 point drop. But then it worked its way back up overnight. I was able to do the gap play with the prevailing daily trend, which is a bit unusal. After the win, I quit cash trading but looked for a pullback to the open. That did not occur. Price went through the pivot and then reversed up. I had a sim short just below yesterday's close, but that was missed by a couple of ticks. Had it entered, it would have been a quick winner with no heat.

I am leaving the computer for the day...gotta get ready to visit my mom and take her out for Mother's Day. Will be interesting to see how price does if it gets down to between 2585 and 2590...on its 3 previous trips there buyers stepped in....will this time break through or will price reject this lower value?

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #558 (permalink)
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I did not finish the week strong. This is the second week in a row that I did not trade well on Friday. I started well yesterday with a gap trade. I used a reduced target. My thinking was that the JP Morgan Chase announcement of their loss would really put the market in a down mood, and in fact the overnight trading resulted in about a 18 point down gap. Price opened below the Camarilla L3. I took a gap trade and exited before L3. I expected a pullback from L3, so I put in a limit sell order at that level. That was a strategic error. It is ok to expect a pullback at a price level, but the strategic thing to do is look at price action and make it prove it has pulled back. I was over run as the market was in a strong opening move up. Price went to the Central Pivot and yesterday's close (which were all identical, very unusal) and that was a pullback with confirmation on the 1 minute chart. I shorted again but the market continued up. Price went up, pulled back down to touch the close from above and took off, getting up to 2640 area and then it traded in a range of 2632 to 2638 for an hour and a half and then slowly worked back down through the central pivot zone and closed at a six week low of 2610.75.

This week the market was basically in a trading range from 2585 to 2640. Buyers could not get above 2640 and sellers could not get below 2585. The market could move price to those areas, but then price would move away from the extremes.

Both the daily and 4 hour charts closed below the 13 ema, so the market is still in a down trend. But it is sure acting as if it is oversold and wants to go up. I will continue to look only for short trades while the daily is below the ema.

I am going to refocus on execution. Last Friday and yesterday I did not execute as I should have. Last week I traded with price inside the bearish target zone which is a no-no. Yesterday I used a limit order so that I entered when price first touched the L3 level rather than waiting for the chart to prove the fade from the L3 level was valid....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-screenshot-2012-05-12-17-04-08.png   Papa's Trading Journal-screenshot-2012-05-12-17-30-33.png  
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  #559 (permalink)
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papa15's Avatar
 
Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 586 given, 1,244 received

Green Day; Discipline Green (+2)

A tough morning for me. Market down overnight, probably over concerns about Greece (as good an explanation as any I suppose). To be honest I was a little surprised by the down move. Friday had such a strong start to the day, and then the sell off, I kinda, sorta thought we would get a bit of up movement today. So much for the market doing what I think....

This is options expiration week and the market can do some weird things during this week. Typically, the sell in May down move happens late April/early May, but then during options expiration week there is a small rally, and then the market rolls over for the summer. Are these typical times?.....

Any way with the market down, I did play three times this morning but I scalped for very small profits. Market really was too choppy for me as evidenced by candles being a bit bigger than usual, with long wicks. I really could not get a read on market direction. Banked my profit for the day and gonna spend time just watching charts and price action building up my personal, mental data base

.....one interesting point to note is the current day low as I write is 2583.50....buyers still show up when price gets down at that level....a second interesting point is how price has responded at the 13 ema on the 4 hour chart.....the bigger charts do help see some good things.....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #560 (permalink)
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Wake Forest, NC
 
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papa15's Avatar
 
Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 586 given, 1,244 received


I really did think the market would get back to the level of Friday's close. It certainly seemed to try, but came up short. Price dropped in the last part of the day and made a new low close around 2585. Price has been down in this area several times recently, and in each case, buyers stepped in to take it back up. Today price closed here. This close is about 25 NQ points lower than we have seen. Both the daily and 4 hour charts continue their downtrend defined as prices being below the 13 ema. The pivot point is below the 3 day average of the pivot, and the market had a red candle for today. I will continue to look for short trades.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-screenshot-2012-05-14-16-52-41.png  
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