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Papa's Trading Journal

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  #381 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Finished for the day. Was 4 for 4 on the core trades (ergodic and inside bar) for 32 ticks. However, it took a long time and was not easy trading. I was focused on meeting all the criteria and several setups appeared to be forming but the ergodic divergence criteria was not met, so I passed on the trades. The ones I did take seemed to come near the end of runs and I felt sort of like I was coming late to the party. Even though I felt that way, even on the first trade of the day, price continued to run on up for an additional 40 ticks or so. I am glad the weekend is here so I can ponder this for a while. For all of th core trades I used my standard 8 tick target and 12 tick stop loss.

In parallel I did do the 5 minute pull back trade. Right at 9:35 had a pull back to the 8 sma for a long setup. I entered 1 tick above the previous candle and was promptly stopped out for -15 ticks. The next entry came at 10:47. I entered at 108.58 and exited at 108.77 for a 19 tick gain. Third trade was at 11:20, with entry at 109.20 and exit at 109.32. Took quite a bit of heat on this one but kept stop below the moving average. The last entry was at 11:40 at 109.36 with profit taken at 109.48. Three for 4 for 28 ticks. I have posted the NT chart I used this morning for the pull back setup. (There are 5 trades on it, but I was just reaffirming to myself I am not a counter trend trader, so ignore the trade at 10:30.)

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #382 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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For the week the ergodic trades were 10 for 14 for 16 ticks total (9 ticks net). The inside bar was 2 for 2. I really made 39 ticks on the IB trades but I think I explained yesterday's 31 tick gain was a mistake, so for analytical purposes I am going to take credit for only 8 ticks. Thus IBs were good for 16 ticks (15 ticks net).

One ergodic trade just did not work (the first trade on Monday). All entry criteria were met, but the entry occurred in a flat market before direction was established. Two of the entries did not meet the "no divergence" criteria for the ergodic setup and the last failure was an entry against the trend. These last 3 were poor entries that I should not have taken. I don't think I was successful enough in correcting my self-discipline issue of considering all indicator and price action factors before entering the trade. I must continue to focus on that.

I had started to read Mike Winfrey's thread a while back but stopped after a few pages. I just didn't like the indicators on the initial charts. Once he won the contest, I went back and read the whole thing and was amazed at the changes he made and how impressive it seemed to work. The inside bar setup just was not happening early in the week, so I started sim-trading the 5 min set up Mike uses. It worked for me. Just since Wednesday it was 11 for 13 for 109 ticks (102.5 ticks net). The beauty of this set up is there are very few factors to consider. I am having issues considering all of the factors involved in the ergodic setup with 2 charts....so here is a method that in 3 days produced more ticks than the ergodic set up has in 3 weeks....sometimes I can be stubborn and quite slow, but the analysis here is pretty straight forward in my opinion. I am really looking to add this to my trading plan. It just seems obvious to me.

I would appreciate feedback from you folks if this is a wise move or not.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #383 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Attached are this morning's ergodic and inside bar trades as seen from the 5 min pull back chart. It is obvious on this chart I could have gotten more ticks per trade, except for the third one. But I think you can also see how the ergodic trades enter later than the pull back trade. In some cases the pull back trade has already met its profit target before the ergodic even gets an entry.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #384 (permalink)
 cory 
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papa15 View Post
Been disappointed with the inside bars this week (none have appeared while I was trading)...

some days there are plenty of inside bars , outside bars. Some days there are none, don't know why tho.

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  #385 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Not off to a good start for the week. Market opened a bit choppy, dropped around 9:45 and then resumed chop.....so guess where I decided to trade....it will take quite a few band aids to cover the wounds from the chop machine today.

Ergodic was 0-1, inside bar was 1-2, and pull back was 1-2. Hit my daily stop limit on the 3 losers.

The frustration is I could clearly see the direction but the timing of the entries left a lot to be desired. The only trade that I think I messed up on was the second inside bar entry at 10:51 as price broke up above the high of the inside bar. I entered long, which I knew to be countertrend, but my logic was it was a breakout of a consolidation period and the start of a retrace. Oh well, not every trade works out and not everday will be profitable.

No charts today.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #386 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Broker: VanKar
Trading: NQ
 
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I think for the rest of this week I am going to focus on the 5 min pull back setup per Mike Winfrey's 5 Minute Odyssey thread. Today I tried to watch for an inside bar, ergodic, and the 5 minute setup and just did not like the divided attention. I should be able to trade the 5 minute setup just on my laptop; it has long been a goal of mine to really simplify my trading setup, and this is about as simple as you can get.

Reasons for doing this: 1. I know the setup works based on Mike's thread and Aztrader's thread, in addition to my own trial of it. 2. It has much less subjectivity than the ergodic. 3. It has a better risk:reward ratio than my other entries. I have found that when I go back and look at losing trades using the ergodic setups, issues such as divergence appear, but in real time the divergence may not be seen (the indicator changes as price moves). Anyway, I am not discarding the setup, I am just taking a break from trading it.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #387 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Better than yesterday, but still a losing day..

The 5 minute pull back had one loser and one winner today. The losing trade met all the criteria for entry; trade just did not work. The winner had an initial upsurge (and I took 12 ticks profit on it) came back down to give some heat and then took off for a nice run. My stop on the loser was 15 ticks and the winner was 12, so overall down 3 ticks there. There was one other 5 min setup later in the day that I did not get a fill on. I had a buy stop but price did not come up to fill it; if filled it would have been a loser.

I took one other trade, an inside bar entry. I did not feel real good about the entry and my fears were confirmed when price poked through the high of the bar to fill me and then fell hard. I also had a mistake on the entry in that the brackets were not sent to the market for profit and loss. I took LOTS of heat and was ready to cut the trade several times but each time before I hit the close button, I would see something that indicated I was in a down spike that would end soon. Well, it continued to get worse and then I did notice the fast ergodic turned up hard. I held on and cut the trade for a 4 tick loss. This was absolutely not the way to manage a trade; I hope that is the last time I find myself in that situation. The most proper course of action would have been to cut the trade immediately upon realizing the brackets were not in. The second best action was to cut as soon as the price level where the stop was to have been was met. I did not do either of those.

I like the 5 minute entry method. The hardest part is waiting for the setup. The second difficulty, if you can call it that, is adjusting the entry price properly as subsequent bars close. It is not hard to do that, if you remember to do it....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #388 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Broker: VanKar
Trading: NQ
 
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Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 583 given, 1,246 received

Not a good day today. Had 3 entries for the 5 min setup, 2 of which were valid. One was not; I entered twice on the same move which is not proper. 2 of the 3 trades were losers. For the week, the win rate has not been good for the 5 min entry, and according to Mike's 5 min odyssey journal, this has happened before. Tomorrow is another day.

My issue is not the win percentage of the setups. My issue is my trade management. I honored my daily stop loss today. Good as far as that goes. The issue is I let one trade run beyond its stop. My bad. I can not be a profitable trader if that is not fixed and fixed soon and fixed permanently. It definitely is the next self discipline issue I will work on.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #389 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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tderrick View Post
I use inside bar, the Winfrey, breakout
and Pullback setups.



"The Winfrey", I didn't realize we had named it

Mike

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  #390 (permalink)
 tderrick 
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Big Mike View Post


"The Winfrey", I didn't realize we had named it

Mike

Ha!! Ha!! It worked so well for me, I had to name it! lol


AJ
Nashville, Tennessee


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