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Papa's Trading Journal
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Papa's Trading Journal

  #361 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Done for the day, putting together the details.
Summary: 1 for 1 on inside bar; 2 for 3 on ergodics

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #362 (permalink)
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I started watching the market around 8:30 this morning. Market was really in a chop mode around the 108.00 area. Lots of barb wire as Al Brooks calls it. I kept seeing what looked like valid entries but had they been taken, they would have been stopped out.

An inside bar formed at 9:45. The market was not giving any real clues (at least to me) about its direction, so I put a buy stop above and a sell stop below. The buy stop was hit at 9:50 and went for an 8 tick profit.

I saw an ergodic setup for a short and entered at 9:57 at 107.84. It went 6 ticks my way and then reversed for a 10 tick stop. The market went a little further up and then turned down. A second short setup occurred at 10:04 and I entered at 107.80 and had an 8 tick profit. Shortly after I exited, the market turned back up. I saw a long setup around 10:11 and entered at 108.04, endured a good deal of chop as the market clung to the 108 area and then it broke up to an 9 tick profit target (was 8 ticks but had positive slippage).

I was able to get the 4 trades I wanted and end the day +15 in ticks. I am done trading for the day, but I want to study my charts a bit to see what lessons I can take away. One that jumps off the screen at me right away is the timing of the losing trade; too close to 10 am and a news release. A second one (that I want to ponder a bit) is how close my ergodic trades are. I may ought to stretch out the timing a bit.....but I am very happy about sticking to the plan to correct my discipline issues.

Good trading to all

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-clib40511.png   Papa's Trading Journal-cl40511.png  
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  #363 (permalink)
Elite Member
Wake Forest, NC
 
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3 for 4 today for a net of 18 ticks. Did one ergodics trade before 10 am for 10 ticks. Then waited until after the news release at 10:30. Waited about 20 minutes, market was very choppy looking to me but finally at 10:54 I took a short at 108.35, market went 7 ticks my way and then reversed up. I exited at a 8 tick loss. At 11 am, had an inside bar form and the bar was a 39 tick doji. I placed a buy stop above and a sell stop beneath. The buy stop was hit and went on to an 8 tick win. At 11:21, I had a long setup and entered at 108.71 and exited for a 8 tick win.

Sticking with the plan. It is working for me. For the week up about 4 ticks net. It has been a wee bit frustrating to have so many trades go so far my way and then reverse. May need to look at using a b/e plan at some point in the future but for now staying the course.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-cl40611first.png   Papa's Trading Journal-cl40611second.png  
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  #364 (permalink)
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The Way It Is Supposed To Be

Today was the best trading day I have had in a while. It went almost picture perfect; it is how it is how it is supposed to be.

After having several trades this week go to or near my profit target and then reverse to a loss, I looked at my charts and method to see if I could find an issue that could cause it. The only thing I could see is I should not enter a trade unless there is agreement in the slope direction of both EMAs and both ergodics, plus the ergodic signal line, on both charts. If those conditions are met, then I should be able to enter the trade with confidence. I also decided I should revert back to the tick charts. I like the range charts since it makes picking an entry point a bit easier, but for me, the tick charts seem smoother and easier to trade.

I went into today focusing on executing the one inside bar and 3 ergodic trades meeting all the conditions above. An inside bar completed at 9am, all the EMAs were sloping up and all ergodics were sloping up. I entered at 109.23 and the profit target was quickly met at 109.31. Price went a bit higher and then turned down. At 9:12, a short set up with entry at 108.94. Price hesitated for just a tiny bit and then went to the profit target at 108.86.

Price went down a bit more and then reversed up. I waited until after the NYSE opened. A long setup at 109.05. Price went to the profit target of 109.13 but did not fill, came back down to the entry price and went back up to the profit target without fill, came down a bit. I lowered the profit target by 1 tick and was filled. Price went up to essentially a double top with the previous swing high and then came down. I waited to get all EMAs and ergodics lined up. They were at 10:02 and I went short at 108.95 and exited at 108.87.

Executed the trades per plan and did the pre-determined number of trades. Daily total: 4 for 4, for 31 ticks (would be 29 ticks net of commissions).

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-clib40711.png   Papa's Trading Journal-cl40711.png  
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  #365 (permalink)
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  #366 (permalink)
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papa15 View Post
Today was the best trading day I have had in a while. It went almost picture perfect; it is how it is how it is supposed to be.

After having several trades this week go to or near my profit target and then reverse to a loss, I looked at my charts and method to see if I could find an issue that could cause it. The only thing I could see is I should not enter a trade unless there is agreement in the slope direction of both EMAs and both ergodics, plus the ergodic signal line, on both charts. If those conditions are met, then I should be able to enter the trade with confidence. I also decided I should revert back to the tick charts. I like the range charts since it makes picking an entry point a bit easier, but for me, the tick charts seem smoother and easier to trade.

I went into today focusing on executing the one inside bar and 3 ergodic trades meeting all the conditions above. An inside bar completed at 9am, all the EMAs were sloping up and all ergodics were sloping up. I entered at 109.23 and the profit target was quickly met at 109.31. Price went a bit higher and then turned down. At 9:12, a short set up with entry at 108.94. Price hesitated for just a tiny bit and then went to the profit target at 108.86.

Price went down a bit more and then reversed up. I waited until after the NYSE opened. A long setup at 109.05. Price went to the profit target of 109.13 but did not fill, came back down to the entry price and went back up to the profit target without fill, came down a bit. I lowered the profit target by 1 tick and was filled. Price went up to essentially a double top with the previous swing high and then came down. I waited to get all EMAs and ergodics lined up. They were at 10:02 and I went short at 108.95 and exited at 108.87.

Executed the trades per plan and did the pre-determined number of trades. Daily total: 4 for 4, for 31 ticks (would be 29 ticks net of commissions).

Been following along quietly as have several irons in the fire lately....good job...you seem ready to go to the next level soon......what a journey we are on eh?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #367 (permalink)
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aztrader9 View Post
Been following along quietly as have several irons in the fire lately....good job...you seem ready to go to the next level soon......what a journey we are on eh?

It has been. I have been journaling for nearly a year and the road has not been easy, but I feel I have made more progress in the last 5 weeks than in the previous several years. The experience of those years has been beneficial no doubt, but they were painful. I am glad they are behind me.

Big Mike caught my attention at the right time a couple of weeks back and his having me generate the list of self discipline issues was just what I needed. It forced me to put things on paper and that has paid big dividends for me.
It is something that has worked for me, and I suspect it will work for others also.

I also owe you thanks. I read "The Papa Prayer" and "Golf is not a game of perfect" based on your mentioning them and both books were tremendous. (I am currently reading Who Switched Off My Brain? by Caroline Leaf, this was mentioned by Bill Provanzano).

This is an amazing journey. It is one where there is no final destination, so enjoy the journey.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #368 (permalink)
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Finished for the day and the week. Ended up the week in good fashion. Three ergodic trades for 18 ticks and 1 inside bar trade for 8 ticks. I cut one ergodic trade early as the short term ergodic crossed its signal line going against the long term ergodic. I missed the inside bar at 9 am as I was distracted with something else. Took a while for another inside bar to form. It formed in an area where all ergodics were very close to the zero line so no real feel for which way it would go, and thus I put a buy stop above and sell stop below. Took a while but the buy stop filled and once filled, it took a bit to get to the profit target. I was about ready to cut that trade early when it spiked up and hit the target.

Will do a weekly summary shortly.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-clib40811.png   Papa's Trading Journal-cl40811.png  
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  #369 (permalink)
Elite Member
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Week 2 Summary

The week started off on the wrong foot at 1 for 4 and 23 ticks in the hole (25 ticks net after commissions added in). But fortunately, it ended up much better, positive 57 ticks net. Overall, I was 15 for 20. I was 4 for 5 on inside bars for a net of 18.5 points.

On the one inside bar loss, I had about 15 ticks profit and let it slip away.....goes to show how just 1 slip in trade management can affect the overall performance. Had I just gone for the typical 8 ticks profit, then inside bars would have had 37.5 ticks net profit. By overstretching, and also not adjusting the stop, that loss cost 19 ticks profit. I am trying to get that lesson embedded deep within me so I don't repeat it. I hope any who read this will absorb it also.

The ergodics were 11 for 15 for a net 38.5 ticks. My biggest takeaway there is the hardest time for me to trade the ergodic is between 9:20 and 9:40. I am planning on waiting until after 9:40 to even start looking for ergodic trades.

This completes my 2 weeks of working on my first 2 self discipline issues. I still feel putting down a firm number of trades is very liberating; I know when I come to the computer exactly the number and type of trades I am looking for. It allows me to focus more on proper execution of those trades. I can't exactly explain it, but it seems to have lifted a great deal of pressure off of me. I feel I have corrected the issues of trading setups not in the plan and overtrading. I plan to continue to take only the 3 ergodic and 1 inside bar trades.

The next issues to address are not looking at all indicators/price action factors before entering a trade and no daily loss limit.

As I stated yesterday, the main indicators to look at are the moving averages (long term trend) and the ergodics (intermediate and short term trend) plus the ergodic signal line, which is an EMA of the short term ergodic. I have 2 moving averages, 2 ergodics, and the signal line on 2 charts. I want all 10 of these to have the same slope direction. I prefer to trade in the direction that the long term ergodic is on (for instance, if the long term ergodic is above the 0 line, I would prefer the trade to be a long, with the short term ergodic also above 0). A factor that is in my plan, but I have not really considered is to look for divergence on the short term ergodic; such a signal gives an early warning of a turn in price and thus you need to be very cautious in going with the trend (I don't do counter trend trades, so I don't take the divergence signal to enter a trade). After listening to Roger Felton's seminar the other day, I realize I should give due diligence to the divergence signal as it may keep me out of a losing trade.

My daily stop loss is 3% of account value. It has always been that, but I have not always honored it. I accept that as a line in the sand. I am going to work to get it down to 2% but that will take some more time.

Have a great week end everyone.

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
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  #370 (permalink)
Elite Member
Wake Forest, NC
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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papa15's Avatar
 
Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 586 given, 1,244 received


2 for 3 today for a net -0.5 ticks. No inside bar trade set up before noon, so I passed on that one setup. Quit for the day, gonna go do some errands and get away from the screen for a while.

The first trade today was a loss for 12 ticks. It would be easy to just say the trade failed; best I can tell all my criteria for entry were met and the trade went for a stop out. One thing I overlooked was the entry was for a short right at 112.00; I should have realized buyers would try to hold price above that nice round level. They made the effort, and it was enough to hit my stop. A second point I notice as I look back over the charts is that the moving averages were very flat, telling me the market participants were not sure which direction the market was going to go. The flat MAs were a good sign to wait a bit longer.

The second and third trades had criteria met for entry but price was still quite choppy, so I did not go for big profit targets (7 and 6 ticks). The commission costs took away 1.5 ticks, so overall down 1/2 tick on the day.

Last Monday, the market opened sort of flat and choppy, and I tried to trade it with the ergodics between 9 am and 10 am without much success. This is the second Monday in a row this has happened. I think next Monday I will wait a bit longer before I try the ergodic setup.....

My focus is on:
1. Avoid the opening chop.
2. Honor stops
3. Ensure reward > risk on all trades
Attached Thumbnails
Papa's Trading Journal-cl41111.png  
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