Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Favorite Futures: NQ
Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 586 given,
I had a bit of a frustrating day. It ended up slightly positive money wise, but trading was not smooth. I took time off in Nov and Dec to tend to family matters and I did not want to trade during the holiday slow down. I kept sneaking peaks at the market and noticed that the inside bars were often being followed by engulfing bars. My mind started wandering about using other techniques. I have tried to scalp for years so I tried to work on that some more. I looked at various methods, time frames, range bars, different platforms, and simultaneously worked on a trading psychology course and then bought a price action trading course.
I succeeded......in totally messing my mind up.
My trading in January reflects that. I have over traded, jumped into very questionable trades, switched techniques during the day, looked at different chart types in the day, compared charts, and I have lost focus.
Tonight I removed the other platforms. I will stick to ToS for now. ToS isn't great for scalping, so scalping needs to go for now. I will stick to the inside bar trades; I have had more success with those than anything else. They are not super cool per se, but who cares. I need to step back and be me.
We will be going out of town tomorrow, so probably won't trade Thursday and Friday (at least not real money trades).. Just want to clear the head.
The following 3 users say Thank You to papa15 for this post:
I like you spent a lot of time going through different concepts, ideas, etc..
The only thing that has kept me in-line at all has been that I paid 7K to a vendor for a course and me being a cheap bastard promised myself I would do-or-die with it. I am glad it is a system that others have found to work for them. I think that was the key for me was that I wanted to see if others could do it then it would erase all doubts.
The issue though is that so few are honest, open or ethical to a point where they don't cherry pick, lie, etc...
Having gone through HUNDREDS of different systems, I feel like the old Bull/cow story as you would remember it from the movies "Colors".
'Hey dad, let's run down that hill and have us a cow. No son, let's WALK down that hill and have em' all.'
I think there is a fine line between switching platforms or chart configurations to improve performance for the long haul or just meddling with something that works. I don't believe there is a right answer but more of whatever you choose is the right path.
I think the only thing that I have understood about people making money trading is the fact that they have stuck with it no matter what. Figured out every nuance to it, and mastered it through sheer boredom.
Like all traders who are not consistent, we must find the better path that fits so many of our aptitudes, style etc.. I applaud you for your continued journey!
The following 2 users say Thank You to bluemele for this post:
I have done a lot of thinking about trading recently. I have not come to any earth shattering revelations or new ideas, but just doing some deep down thinking.
What are my biggest weaknesses?
-A tendency to see what I want to see that leads me to jump into trades too quickly
-A tendency to move stops when a trade doesn't go my way immediately (see the above reason why) and comes close to my initial stop.
-An almost compulsive feeling to be in the market and be part of the action...what am I missing....others are getting some of this movement, so should I....
What are my strengths
-I am passionate about succeeding at this. I have stuck with it in the face of little, if any, real success.
-I am not under any pressure to make a dime at this. I have a separate income stream to pay the bills.
-I am an analytical person (which can be a weakness at times)
What has cost me the most in trading?
-Trying to make the market conform to my bias.
-Trying to force trades at market openings.....GAPS mostly
-Not wanting to admit I am wrong about a trade. Not wanting to take the small loss, so I end up taking a larger one later (see above about stops)
-Having profit targets smaller than stop losses. (eating like a bird but dumping like an elephant)
-Trading one contract.
Well, how do I address the weaknesses and correct the things that have cost me?
-My account size is way, way too small to consider multiple contracts in oil. Big Mike gave some very good advice last year about trading oil, and to be perfectly honest, I read it and then ignored it. He stated that to trade oil you need at least $25k to trade multiple contracts. I don't have that much. Most people will advise a trader to risk no more than 2% on any trade. I have done that while trading oil (unless I moved my stop) but I have not targeted a big enough profit. The only oil trade that I have been consistently successful with is the inside bar trade. The stop should be at the opposite end of the bar, but that violates the 2% rule way too often. I have used a time limit and a smaller time frame to try to reduce the stop size, but quite honestly, it is still more than I feel comfortable with. So, I have come to the conclusion that I am better served to leave oil alone for now. When my account size gets bigger, I will revisit this issue.
-I am going to concentrate my efforts on trading primarily the 6B. I think it gives enough movement is sufficient to generate profit while allowing stops to be no more than 1.5% of my account value. I want to get risk to less than 1% per trade.
-6B essentially trades 23 hours a day. I know most of the volume is between the London open around 2am and noon Eastern, but for practical purposes there is no gap, so that takes care of the gap fill play or whatever..
So, how do I plan on trading.
-I look at a weekly chart and mark swing highs and lows, then reduce the time down to daily and add those swing highs and lows, and keep on repeating down to 4hr, 1hr, 15 min and then finally a 2 or 3 min chart. I only have one chart open.
-I look to trade only with the trend. The trend is HH/HL swings for an uptrend, and LL/LH swings for a downtrend. A 20 ema gives a good approximation for the trend but price action is really what defines it.
-ToS does have an indicator called PPS, which is a John Person indicator. It is essentially 2 moving averages (I think on ToS they are 4 and 7 SMAs). The basic entry is to wait for a trend to form, a retrace to occur, and then the PPS to turn back with the trend.
-It is best to go long near a support and short near a resistance (stating the obvious I know). S&R defined by the swing highs and lows from above.
-The first target will be fairly small. Once it is hit, the stop is adjusted to ensure the trade will be positive (the stop adjusted to cover cost of commission plus loss on second contract). Target will be a previous swing high or next S/R line.
I am sim trading this now and will until it is totally ingrained into me.
I also am working to trade it just from my laptop since it is only one screen. I am trying to fully follow the KISS principle.
I can only imagine what must be going through your mind if you have been a follower of this thread for some time. I must seem wishy-washy as can be. I certainly have thought that of myself. If you look back to when I first started the thread, I was thinking of switching to the 6B. My account size has been pretty stable over the last year (at least until January when I gave back way too much). I knew then I needed to go to 2 contracts and that 6B was the logical instrument to do that on, so in reality, the last 7 months of doing the inside bar setup was good for mastering another technique and putting another tool in the box, it really was not the best for the long run. I think most successful traders will tell you it is easier to make money trading multiple contracts with multiple targets than doing a single contract.
So, I have come to a fork in the road, and I am turning down the path where I can trade more than one contract now. I will not go live until I have proven this method. I will not change anything on the chart for at least 2 weeks.
The goals for this account:
65-70% days are profitable
90% weeks are profitable
100% months are profitable.
Even $1 counts as profitable, so my goal is not dollar driven (ie $XX/day or $YY/wk) but process driven.
For those that have been readers of this thread, please continue to read and give me your feedback.
The following 3 users say Thank You to papa15 for this post:
I was not reading your thread so I have no idea what you have done.
I only want to comment about your last post.
I don't believe in scaling in or out. I know its bad and I can prove it. (read my threads!)
Beside this you are on a right track.
Notice something ? He trades 1 lot . Notice something else ? he takes tiny bites for profits . As far as trading is concerned in the big scheme of things he is profitable , according to what documentation is provided on his site . The biggest hurdle is taking profits and by resigning yourself to never regretting missing the big move makes or breaks a scalper .
The following 2 users say Thank You to Eric j for this post:
I get Jaguar Traders blog post every day in real time. I don't follow his trading method nor did I take his course but I learned some stuff about trading from him back when I was on the holy grail hunt. He is legit. If you want to be a scalper, he is a great resource. I think he's pretty honest about setting realistic expectations and he does not scale out. More importantly, he posts when he has a bad day.....one of which was today. And he is all in all out for his scalps.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci
Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris