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Papa's Trading Journal


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Papa's Trading Journal

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  #11 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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BM
Basically, I am on the sidelines now and have started a couple of projects that are taking some time. The projects need to get finished before I will go back to trading. Additionally, just went through some rough patches in the private life and want to clear my head from that. The world situation with debt (especially in Europe) is causing me some concern. When I look at all that, I think it is best to just sit on my hands with regards to trading.

As for an indicator, I consider the daily range and look at the individual range bars on the trading chart. I want those to be within my gut feel.

Once this spring cleansing is done, I will be back on a regular basis.

Thanks for a great site
Papa14

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  #12 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
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Finished most of my projects (main one was a deck repair that I had put off for about 2 years). Looking forward to getting back to trading; intend to start next Tuesday.

During my away time, I have practiced with a new setup. I added the 8 and 21 ema's to my chart and then added an oscillator that plots the difference of the 8 and 21 ema's (just gives a better indication of when the crossover has occurred, obviously having both the ema's and the oscillator is redundant). With the increased volatility the market has shown recently, I find this addition to be useful. I also watched David Halsey at eminiaddict.com and liked his use of fib retracements to get targets and stop placements. One of the big issues in my past performance has been a tendency to cut winners short and let losers run (I know, I know, I am the only one that has done that). Forcing myself to look for bigger targets is a major objective near term.

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  #13 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Well after a couple of weeks or so away from live trading, I stepped in front of a freight train today. I think I was biased to the downside for some reason and that colored all my thinking. In hindsight, being the first of the month, the bias, if any, should have been up. My charts were screaming at me the market had a bullish tint, but with 6B slightly above the weekly R1, I just knew the market would come down and I was going to be on that move. Well,....you can probably figure the rest of the story from there. I ended up with a large loss because of not honoring stops and revenge trading. It was a repeat of previous mistakes. Why do we continue to make the same mistakes over and over......this is the psychological part that Mike keeps talking about. I imagine just about all of us have setups that we have confidence in but yet most of us continue to put money in other people's pockets.

I really don't have any pressure to make a certain amount of money; there are no bills to pay from trading. But trading is exposing some character flaws that need correcting. I do not know where the market will go in the next second, minute, hour, or day. I just need to follow the price action, find the pullback, and get into the market. I must be patient to wait for the pullback. I must get over the fear of being left behind. Overconfidence, lack of patience, and greed/fear are the chinks in my armour. I must focus on those.
Papa14

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  #14 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Great post, papa.

And you are exactly right. I've said before that I had to change myself in order to be a profitable trader. Previously, I was a very "take charge" guy, leading, organizing, highly opinionated etc. Can't you tell? The market doesn't care for any of that crap. You are much better off being a follower in the market than a leader.

You kept trying to lead the market, because you thought it was going to reverse and head lower. If you had simply followed what was in front of you, price moving higher, then you would have been on the long side instead.

There is no right or wrong. Look at CL. We can be up 100 ticks in 1 hour, then right back down 100 ticks next hour, then right back up again. It is what it is, and nothing more, and nothing less. Trade what you see. It sounds simple. It sounds like an axiom. But, it is the truth.

Mike

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  #15 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Thanks BM for the last post. I am working on changing myself, but it is the hardest thing I have done....I guess I am seeing how difficult other people must have perceived me over the years.

Anyway, I spent time over the last several weeks reviewing the opening move and why I kept messing those up. I found that if there is a gap and the ema's are headed in the direction to support closing the gap, a pretty good trade can be had. Also, I must wait to right at market open to enter. I have an indicator for the 15 min chart that shows half gap closure (yellow line), 4:15 gap close (blue line), 4 pm close (red line) and daily pivot (white line). The indicator in the bottom panel is the ema difference I mentioned earlier. I used this successfully yesterday and today. I quit for the day after those trades, and spent the time either doing chores or analysing market moves (getting in more screen time, looking to build to the 10,000 hours necessary for unconscious competence )

Papa

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  #16 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Took today off. No trades. Hope all have a great weekend.
Papa14

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  #17 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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We are hosting 3 of our grandchildren this week, so I have not been trading. Can't really focus as I need to with all the distractions, so it is best to leave things alone. Plan on being back next week, although in my past efforts, the volatility associated with options expiration week (especially a quadruple witching week) has not been good for me. I intent to trade, but with caution.

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 Big Mike 
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papa14 View Post
We are hosting 3 of our grandchildren this week, so I have not been trading. Can't really focus as I need to with all the distractions, so it is best to leave things alone. Plan on being back next week, although in my past efforts, the volatility associated with options expiration week (especially a quadruple witching week) has not been good for me. I intent to trade, but with caution.

Good decision

I hope you enjoy the time with the grand kids

Have a good weekend,
Mike

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  #19 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Well after what seems a long time, I think I am back to trading on a regular basis. Today, I made one trade. I did a trade in the direction of the gap on the ES. My moving averages were showing a retrace on both the 5 and 15 min charts at 0925, so I set a stop sell order at 1093. I only used a 1 point target since the half gap fill line was 6 ticks away. Entered about 0933 and out around 0950. Other considerations for keeping the target small is that this is a Monday, and Mondays can have an upward bias, especially at the open (all that pent up weekend demand I guess). Throughout the trade, the red line (diff between 8 and 21 emas was below the blue line (5 period MA of the difference) indicating market should be going down. Minimal heat. Anyway, happy with the result.

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  #20 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Broker: VanKar
Trading: NQ
 
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Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 583 given, 1,246 received


This morning started a lot like yesterday. A reasonable gap, able to get in and make a quick one point target and was about ready to walk away when I realized it was a sim trade. Man, I coulda had a V-8. But never fear, there are other trades to be had.

My system is very straightforward and really requires very little subjective judgment. The market is either trending or in a pullback. Those are the 2 broad conditions. If the 8 ema is above the 21 ema, and price is above the open, it is an uptrend. If price is below the open and 8ema is less than the 21 ema, it is a downtrend. I added an ema difference indicator that helps clarify things a bit. If the red line (ema difference) is above the zero line and above the blue line (average of ema difference) it is an uptrend. If red line is above the zero line but below the blue line, it is a pullback. Trade off the trend of the 15 min chart; use the 5 min to help time the entry. Very simple in concept.

Now to this morning. I jumped the gun a bit. I was a little frustrated at myself for making such a dumb mistake. I saw the candle at 10 am (shooting star) followed by a red candle and a doji, and figured the market was going to turn and make a run at the gap fill. I quickly entered, looking for the measly 1 point that just makes me all warm and fuzzy....and I was run over. Notice that the trend is up on both the 5 and 15 min charts. My logic met reality.

I cut the loss and quit for the day. I then sat down and put all of this to paper. It was a great learning day and I hope it prevents others like this in the future.
Papa14

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