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Papa's Trading Journal
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Papa's Trading Journal

  #131 (permalink)
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Some days you gotta take the medicine

After yesterday, I was feeling pretty good. I have a system that is proven. I have a plan. I have goals.....but I also have me. I can be my own worse hindrance to trading, and today proved it once again.

I knew there was a news release at 9am. The site I follow news on (Bloomberg Market News) had it indicated as market extra attention, so I sorta discounted it a bit. Market opened. I had a long trade positioned for the 30 min breakout to go towards yesterday's close. It was filled and went 4 ticks in my favor and turned down. It was a mistake to enter that trade due to the news play. The second mistake is I did not want the stop to get hit on a quick negative reaction to the news, so I moved the stop. And then I moved it some more, and some more, and some more. I let the price go several hundred dollars against me. I knew there was more "market moving" news at 10am. Price started recovering. At about 9:55, I cut the trade, taking a 12 tick loss. Just did not want to hold through the 10 am news release. This loss essentially wiped out yesterday's gain. A few minutes later, price started moving up. I entered as price broke through the original entry and had a quick winner. An inside bar formed at 10:45. Price went above it, but I did not like the trade (above the Keltner Channel, other indicators showing price really should come back down). When price went below the IB, although a couple of candles later, I entered short. I cannot explain why or justify it. It is not in my system to trade this way. Price went against me, but the stop was above the IB. I moved the stop down following each subsequent bar (about the only smart thing I did all day). The push into lunch stopped me out. This loss took back a large portion of last week's gains.

Using hindsight, I should have waited. There was an inside bar at 9:30, but entry would not come until the bar between 9:45 and 10, and really the news should have kept me out of that trade. An inside bar formed at 10:45, but it would have been a loser if strictly following the IB rules. An inside bar formed at 11:30, and it gave a chance for a small profit. Overall, a tough day for the IB trading.

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  #132 (permalink)
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After looking over my records, I have noticed that Tuesdays are the toughest day of the week for me to trade. Most of the losses on Tuesdays have been from other than IB trades....I am not a rocket scientist (but am a nuclear engineer from a prior life) but it seems I should restrict myself to only trading IBs on Tuesdays.....and maybe on other days as well.....

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  #133 (permalink)
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papa15 View Post
After looking over my records, I have noticed that Tuesdays are the toughest day of the week for me to trade. Most of the losses on Tuesdays have been from other than IB trades....I am not a rocket scientist (but am a nuclear engineer from a prior life) but it seems I should restrict myself to only trading IBs on Tuesdays.....and maybe on other days as well.....

I'm not a rocket scientist either...and never wanted to be....but I can recognize a pattern when I see one. It seems that almost every losing day you have is comprised of one or both of two issues.

1. The Big Kahuna.....Moving your stops. With small targets, you absolutely can never widen your stops.....you will always get what you got today. Take the stop and just deal with it. Otherwise you should stop trading immediately. Moving the stops will cause your account to self destruct, especially if your wins are 7 ticks and your losses are counted in multiples of 10. With a small profit target you can be profitable if your win rate is very good and your losses are small. One discipline break down like today will wipe out several days of profit. This is not a good pattern to get into.

2. Trading anything besides the IB set up. I know you have other setups although I don't recall what they are at this point but I do know you talk about having larger losses on those quite often. I don't really understand the IB set up but you do, so just trade that. For what you want to accomplish, you don't need anything else. They happen every day so no need to get impatient.

So enough preaching to the choir....good luck tomorrow....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #134 (permalink)
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Az
Appreciate all you said, and really it is the truth. I tried today to stick to my rules, especially the stops. I did. However both trades were losses.

The bar prior to opening was an inside bar. Market was down overnight, so my bias was that market should make a run for at least the half way gap. On oil inventory day, Jeff recommends not trading before the report at 10:30. I know this, but in the past I have been able to get some good trades on the opening move. I entered above the IB with stop below. I was stopped out. I let the market get over its opening excitement and when it appeared to be settling down and making a move up, I entered above the opening price. That too was stopped out. At that point, I realized I am pressing and doing nothing but hurting myself. I am stopping live trading for the day and possibly until after the FOMC meeting next week. I think the market is just in some sort of a holding pattern until it knows what the Fed is going to do.

In the nuclear submarine service, when we hit a rough patch and things were not going well, we would "get back to basics". I am at that point. I will get rid of all methods of entry except the inside bar. My profit target is going to be 1/2 the range of the inside bar minus 1 or 2 ticks. No other entries. I will look for all inside bars between 9am and 11:45. No set weekly goal for profit, but I reserve the right to stand aside at any time.

I did an analysis this morning and since July 1st, I have had 22 losing trades. Only 6 have been inside bars. Even a hard-headed nuke can see what he needs to do.

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  #135 (permalink)
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Attached are the guidelines I use for trading inside bars.

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Register to download File Type: doc Inside Bars.doc (14.0 KB, 37 views)
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  #136 (permalink)
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I looked closely at the 6 inside bar trades that I lost on. What jumped off the page is that 4 of the six occurred on Wednesdays. Of those 4, two took place prior to the oil inventory report.

Conclusion: I will probably take Wednesdays off from now on.

Big Mike, thanks again for the spreadsheet. Without that tool, I would have a very difficult time drawing proper conclusions.

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  #137 (permalink)
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After the oil news

Greetings Papa,

Have you done a study on inside bars that occur on Wed AFTER the oil news is released?

Jeff

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  #138 (permalink)
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Jeff Castille View Post
Greetings Papa,

Have you done a study on inside bars that occur on Wed AFTER the oil news is released?

Jeff


Jeff
I looked back over my data that is recorded in the spreadsheets. Wednesdays are a day that I have done other type of entries (opening range, gap fill moves, etc). I really have done very few IB trades. Unfortunately, one of the great limitations of ToS is the lack of adequate back data. I do know from having watched the market over the past several months there were good IB trades to be had on Wed after the news releases (I kicked myself several times for not sleeping in at the open and turning on the computer around 10:30).

I have total confidence in the IB method. Even if I don't trade on Wed for a while, I will practice it.

The biggest issue I have is I just want to get in the market, make the goal, and get out. Using the IB method requires exercising something called patience, and sometimes that is in short supply around here. I have looked for other methods to speed up the trading process (increased opportunities) but they have all bit me pretty hard. The proof is in the spreadsheet; stick to the 15 min chart IB, use the proper stop and target, and take the opportunities the market presents.

Thanks for sharing your ideas on the Three Setups and the All You Need threads...they all make sense to me. I just want to master this one and once that is achieved, add one other, and slowly build up my skill set.

Papa15

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  #139 (permalink)
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IBs

Hi Papa,

I had a couple of quick questions regarding your IB trades.
  1. On a quick look at IBs this week occurring before noon and not within 15 mins of news I think I can count 4 losers. As you have only had 6 losing IBs since July I am assuming that you don't take all the signals. I wonder what criteria are you using to choose your IB trades other than your .doc rules?
  2. How many IB trades have you taken since July - in other words, what's the winning percentage?
  3. 4 of your losing trades came on Wednesdays, but again what's the winning percentage for Wednesdays? If you have a winning percentage overall for Wednesdays then perhaps it's worth accepting the losers.
Thanks for your attention,

N

 
  #140 (permalink)
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n1tc View Post
Hi Papa,

I had a couple of quick questions regarding your IB trades.
  1. On a quick look at IBs this week occurring before noon and not within 15 mins of news I think I can count 4 losers. As you have only had 6 losing IBs since July I am assuming that you don't take all the signals. I wonder what criteria are you using to choose your IB trades other than your .doc rules?
  2. How many IB trades have you taken since July - in other words, what's the winning percentage?
  3. 4 of your losing trades came on Wednesdays, but again what's the winning percentage for Wednesdays? If you have a winning percentage overall for Wednesdays then perhaps it's worth accepting the losers.
Thanks for your attention,

N

N
These are great questions.
1. Yes strictly following the guidelines I posted there would have been 4 losers, but before today I was only using 7 tick profit targets. Applying that, and recognizing there was news yesterday at 9 am and 10 am, there really would have been only 1 IB losing trade I would have taken (the candle that closed at 11am) and I am not sure I would have taken it. The candle closed right on the Keltner Channel upper boundary (I think I left that off the guidelines but I have discussed it in the thread). With the price action yesterday I probably would have passed on the trade.

2. I have taken 67 IB trades with 60 winners. That works out to 90% winners.

3. I am sorry to say I only took 10 of the IB trades on Wednesdays and have 6 winners for a 60% win rate on Wednesdays. If you remove the 2 pre-news trades I should not have taken, then it would be 6 winners in 8 trades (but that is purely hypothetical as I did take the trades).

I do use the Keltner Channel as an aide in my trading decisions. Also, once in the trade, I closely watch the price action. If I don't like how price is moving, I will cut the trade. In general, an IB trade to the first target will be between 1-3 minutes in length....if it goes close to the 15 minutes for the subsequent candle, the success rate goes down....

Papa15

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