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Papa's Trading Journal

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  #121 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
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We had a Sunday School teacher's seminar at church the beginning of October, and as I set through the presentation, it became crystal clear that the material was as applicable to my trading as to working in Sunday School. I think the material is worth sharing (modified to the trading environment).

Conviction + Clarity + Consistency = Certainty = Commitment

Conviction
Are you really convinced trading is right for you? Do you have the mindset to trade? Do you really believe you can trade successfully? Are you convinced your setup is one that can be successful?

Clarity
Do you have a plan to trade? What is the goal? Is it crystal clear in your mind?

Consistency
Can you do 10 times out of ten what you are supposed to do? Can you do the same thing over and over and over and be content you are making progress toward your goal?

Certainty
If you are convinced you should be a trader, have a proven setup, a clear plan and goal and have the discipline to apply it over and over, then you have an almost certainty of success. Yes, there will be losses, but the overall expectancy should be positive.

Commitment
Success increases belief in the system and helps improve the discipline to stick with it, even during periods of drawdown. The challenge is to resist the temptation to go with the latest fad, the latest indicator, the latest and greatest whatever. Once you find something that works, stick with it.

No one size fits all. The method I use may or may not work for you; what you use may or may not work for me. My goals are exactly that, my goals. I don't expect anyone else to want to accomplish my goals, or even be satisfied with what satisfies me.

I found my time in chat rooms very frustrating; I was not able to concentrate on what I wanted to do. I found myself wanting to match what others were doing (or claiming to be doing). Here on futures.io (formerly BMT) forum, that pressure is gone. Everyone is free to go their own direction. When help is needed, there are plenty of folks willing to help for the sheer pleasure of helping you. No one is mocked or put down. If you have been on other trading forums, you know what I am talking about. Thanks again Mike for putting this together.

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  #122 (permalink)
 itrade2win 
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  #123 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Take a look at this post:
Dollar Index Futures & Correlations to Crude Oil & Gold Futures Trading

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  #124 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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papa15 View Post
Az
I am not sure how many others look at the equity indexes....I started a thread about what other helps (other than indicators) traders used to aid them in their decisions....did not get much response.

From my memory, it used to be if oil was up, the overall market would go down. I noticed over the summer that oil is now moving in the same direction as the overall market. I can't explain why. It really defies my understanding, but it is what it is. I just want to take advantage of it anyway I can. From my ES trading days, I know that if ES is up over 10 points pre-market open, then it is likely to be a "gap and go" day without a gap closure. I can't nail down a precise number for oil, so I just use the ES 10 point rule of thumb (and YM's 100 point correlation).

I was a bit surprised today that oil did close the gap completely, but I am not surprised it went to the half gap point.

Thanks for your comments on why I trade.

The struggle I am having is holding myself to my money management plan. I am serious about trading for only $250 per week. Currently I am using 7 tick targets, so I need 4 successful trades to make goal. The temptation is great to go for more on each trade or to go for a larger weekly target, but I have found when I do that, I have a tendency to take trades that do not have as a high a probability for success, and I end up giving back previous gains. Even Al Brooks recommends finding something that works and then increase winnings by adding contracts. That is my plan. My oldest grandchild will be 13 in December and he is in the 7th grade, so I have over 5 years (Lord willing) before I have to remove funds for educational purposes. I certainly hope to be able to use some earnings sooner for missions.

Ok, I get the ES thing....not sure it its really helpful or not but who am I to judge?

As to the target of 7 ticks. Thats fair and usually pretty doable and easy to add contracts to as well. My only concern is the stop. How big is the stop most of the time? If its larger than 7 ticks, is your risk/reward ratio in regards to your win rate worth it? It seems like it is from your posts but I don't recall if I read anywhere about this issue. I guess in the end it all comes down to this: Does the method work most of the time, can you execute it consistently and is the profit you make enough to satisfy your goals. If the answer is yes to all three, then don't change.

Regarding missions, it takes very little money to make a huge difference in peoples lives. I've been all over the developing world and $100 is often 2-3 months of rice for a family of 4. There are about 400 orphans I am passionate about in southeast Asia that I cannot wait to begin caring for......along with a bunch of kids in India....gotta stop talking about...I'll get all choked up.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #125 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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So does this apply to things like ES as well or is ES a proxy for the dollar index?

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
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  #126 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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That was an interesting read....I put a chart up of the dollar index and it has a nice negative correlation to CL. I just added it to my workspace. Thanks @Big Mike

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
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  #127 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Az
I do not use a strict 1:1 R:R. I wish I could. But I was amazed when Jeff posted in the Three Setups thread he had over a 90% success rate. That caught my attention and the total skeptic in me said it was too good to be true. So I practiced it and proved the 90% success rate was valid. I have also proved it with real money trading. Since July 1, I think there have been like 3 or 4 IB trade failures. When I have tried other methods, well the success rate has not been so good. My biggest failure is I have let a couple of losing trades get away from me (believe me you can lose a $1000 in a very few minutes; stops are a great thing if you let them do their job).

When I stay focused on the opening play and the inside bar play, I find trading to be much less stressful and rewarding. Having a reasonable goal that is achievable also allows me to get away from the computer screen and add quality to my life.
Papa15

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  #128 (permalink)
 cory 
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papa15 View Post
Az
I am not sure how many others look at the equity indexes....I started a thread about what other helps (other than indicators) traders used to aid them in their decisions....did not get much response.

From my memory, it used to be if oil was up, the overall market would go down. I noticed over the summer that oil is now moving in the same direction as the overall market. I can't explain why. ....

I noticed the same thing, not only that now cl moves just like...es, my theory (yes I have one) is as traders move to cl they adapt their es trading strategy/system to cl and at the end compromise cl to the same kind of move that they flee from.

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  #129 (permalink)
 sharmas 
Auckland
 
Experience: Advanced
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papa15 View Post
Az
I do not use a strict 1:1 R:R. I wish I could. But I was amazed when Jeff posted in the Three Setups thread he had over a 90% success rate. That caught my attention and the total skeptic in me said it was too good to be true. So I practiced it and proved the 90% success rate was valid. I have also proved it with real money trading. Since July 1, I think there have been like 3 or 4 IB trade failures. When I have tried other methods, well the success rate has not been so good. My biggest failure is I have let a couple of losing trades get away from me (believe me you can lose a $1000 in a very few minutes; stops are a great thing if you let them do their job).


Papa15

Hi Papa

Which method is this and could you please point me to it. Would be very keen to learn and adopt that. Totally agree and one NEVER should enter into a trade without defined stops


Sharmas

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  #130 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Broker: VanKar
Trading: NQ
 
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Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 583 given, 1,246 received



sharmas View Post
Hi Papa

Which method is this and could you please point me to it. Would be very keen to learn and adopt that. Totally agree and one NEVER should enter into a trade without defined stops


Sharmas

Sharmas
The method with the high win rate is the inside bar trade. Jeff covered it in the Three Setups thread. It is the first entry there.
Papa15

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