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Papa's Trading Journal

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  #111 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
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I did not trade yesterday on Columbus Day. Was quite ready to hit the ground running today and that attitude caused me to not put on my thinking cap early. In the 30 min prior to open, price ran up about 40 ticks. It went from being below yesterday's close to opening slightly above it. The real "tipper" was that the equity indexes were all negative at 0900. Without thinking too much, I put in a buy stop above the 30 min opening range, was filled and price did not go any higher than my entry. Started off with a loss.

At 9:30 had an inside bar of 26 ticks. Put in my sell stop order, was filled, and the profit target was quickly hit with minimal heat. No more inside bars by 11am, so I am quitting for the day. I have a luncheon with some friends and need to get ready.

Also, I will not trade on Thursday as I am supposed to take my mom to a doctor's appointment.

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  #112 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Took three trades today, all profitable. The first one was on the retracement following the 8:30 news releases. Prices jumped as Bernanke was speaking and continued up at the 8:30 news announcements. Prices then turned and started back towards yesterday's closing price. I jumped in, took considerable heat, but prices fell as the opening for the pit came closer. After the opening, prices just fell out of bed. In a little over 20 minutes (from just prior to the opening to about 10 min after prices fell about $1. I put in a buy stop above the opening price, targeting the half way gap. It was filled and profit target hit. The last trade was a tick chart play. Prices had hit the upper Keltner band, fell back to the moving average. I put in a buy stop above the previous high, was filled and profit target hit. This is options expiration Friday and so prices can do some funny things. I am quitting for the day.

Given that I really only traded 3 days this week, and started off with a loss, I am satisfied with the results. I went in and modified my goal spreadsheet. I reduced the weekly target to $250 and took off 1 week for Thanksgiving and two weeks for Christmas. This gives a little more room for having one bad day a week and is realistic for the holiday trading I plan to do.

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  #113 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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Good job today.....I was so tired I could hardly see straight....I had just the opposite results today on exactly the same moves! Funny how that happens.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
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  #114 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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Thanks Az....I have had those days where everything I tried just did not work....fortunately, I find those are further and further apart....

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  #115 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
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I did not post Monday or Tuesday as I was thinking I would just make a weekly summary posting. I realized last night that is not as beneficial to me as making a posting following each day's trading. Posting following each day allows me to look back over time to see areas that I need to improve....this journal is after all for me, to make me a better trader. Hopefully as I make progress, it will benefit others as well.

I did one trade today. I did the opening range breakout trade for 9 ticks. That was how many I needed to make my weekly goal. The price had worked its way up overnight and opened about 44 ticks above yesterday's close. The equity futures had very moderate up gaps, so it appeared highly probably the move would be to at least the half gap closure. I set the buy stop below the 8:30-9am low, was filled and profit target hit in less than a minute. I am done for the day and the week. That is a relief as we plan on visiting one of our children out of town tomorrow and Friday.

I did suffer a loss yesterday on an inside bar trade. Price was in a big downtrend, the first inside bar breakout was to the upside and I went with it. The bar was about 35 ticks in length but I set the stop at about half that. It was hit, but then price reversed up and as it came back to the top of the inside bar, I went long and targeted 1/2 the range of the bar. It was hit, so that made up for the loss.

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 Big Mike 
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papa15 View Post
I did not post Monday or Tuesday as I was thinking I would just make a weekly summary posting. I realized last night that is not as beneficial to me as making a posting following each day's trading. Posting following each day allows me to look back over time to see areas that I need to improve....this journal is after all for me, to make me a better trader. Hopefully as I make progress, it will benefit others as well.



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  #117 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Broker: VanKar
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Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
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The market closed Friday at 81.73. It opened today at 82.54. The 30 min high breakout value was 82.74. I did not put in an order for this trade. My reasoning was that the equity indexes were not showing excessive strength; this was an up gap, so I expected a move to at least the half gap closure, and quite honestly I just did not feel comfortable with a long. So I skipped this trade. It would have worked, but I that is ok by me. I don't regret letting this trade go right out of the gate on Monday morning.

I waited. The first inside bar formed at 10:30, after news. I took the trade to the downside and my profit target was quickly hit. The market continued down. I had a sell stop beneath the low of the opening bar. It was hit and my profit target hit. I decided to call it quits for the day.

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  #118 (permalink)
 itrade2win 
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Way to go Papa!!!!

 
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  #119 (permalink)
 PandaWarrior 
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papa15 View Post
The market closed Friday at 81.73. It opened today at 82.54. The 30 min high breakout value was 82.74. I did not put in an order for this trade. My reasoning was that the equity indexes were not showing excessive strength;

First of all, good job today. Patience is a well rewarded virtue in trading!

Now my question; I know many people look at the equity indexes to filter their CL trades through. In my mind, CL is a commodity with real physical properties, real supply and demand, real production issues, real weather issues,...etc while the equity indexes are really just a derivative of a derivative based on paper assets that are worth what the collective body of investing persons (fools?) say it is. There is often no intrinsic value represented and a case could be made that much of the value attributed to stocks and hence the equity indexes are simply a function of what the Fed says it should be by virtue of price manipulation. So the question is this: Why would a person look at another instrument, especially one like ES or TF to determine if a physical commodity asset like CL would move one direction or another. (Gold is a another good example of this)

I may be naive.....but I wonder how the two could have any correlation other than what traders perceive it to be? In a technical trading environment, one should trade what they see, not what some one else is trading on another instrument. Am I crazy here? I don't know....I am looking for input.


And before I forget, I read your post a few days ago about why you trade. I was really impressed by your reasons and for what its worth, I trade for the exact same reasons.

Happy trading.....

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication, Leonardo da Vinci


Most people chose unhappiness over uncertainty, Tim Ferris
 
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  #120 (permalink)
 papa15 
Wake Forest, NC
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Charts, Investor RT, Ninja Trader
Broker: VanKar
Trading: NQ
 
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Posts: 527 since Sep 2009
Thanks: 583 given, 1,246 received


Az
I am not sure how many others look at the equity indexes....I started a thread about what other helps (other than indicators) traders used to aid them in their decisions....did not get much response.

From my memory, it used to be if oil was up, the overall market would go down. I noticed over the summer that oil is now moving in the same direction as the overall market. I can't explain why. It really defies my understanding, but it is what it is. I just want to take advantage of it anyway I can. From my ES trading days, I know that if ES is up over 10 points pre-market open, then it is likely to be a "gap and go" day without a gap closure. I can't nail down a precise number for oil, so I just use the ES 10 point rule of thumb (and YM's 100 point correlation).

I was a bit surprised today that oil did close the gap completely, but I am not surprised it went to the half gap point.

Thanks for your comments on why I trade.

The struggle I am having is holding myself to my money management plan. I am serious about trading for only $250 per week. Currently I am using 7 tick targets, so I need 4 successful trades to make goal. The temptation is great to go for more on each trade or to go for a larger weekly target, but I have found when I do that, I have a tendency to take trades that do not have as a high a probability for success, and I end up giving back previous gains. Even Al Brooks recommends finding something that works and then increase winnings by adding contracts. That is my plan. My oldest grandchild will be 13 in December and he is in the 7th grade, so I have over 5 years (Lord willing) before I have to remove funds for educational purposes. I certainly hope to be able to use some earnings sooner for missions.

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