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TheTradeSlinger's Journey
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TheTradeSlinger's Journey

  #11 (permalink)
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
I am trying to wrap my head around this @DbPhoenix.

I'm thinking doesn't every trade (directional trading) have to start with a "choice" of thinking up or down for some reason or another?

Or maybe it's more subtle, it is simply an entry condition has been met one way or the other without assumptions as to the outcome before hand?

Depends on your trading plan. Your plan should tell you exactly what to look for and exactly what to do if and when whatever you're looking for presents itself. What you think about it at the time is irrelevant.

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  #12 (permalink)
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I was shorting the retest of the wedge, expecting at least the base as a target.

What evidence do you have that the base of however you're defining a "wedge" is a probable target?

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  #13 (permalink)
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DbPhoenix View Post
What evidence do you have that the base of however you're defining a "wedge" is a probable target?

I have none.

This is eye opening.

I should say though, no evidence other than experience in watching/trading price action set ups for quite some time.

But I feel this still isn't good enough.


Last edited by TheTradeSlinger; August 4th, 2015 at 12:53 PM. Reason: Added comments
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  #14 (permalink)
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If it were good enough, you'd be consistently profitable. I don't mean to sound harsh, but you need to put together a trading plan that lends itself to the collection of metrics that you can analyze in order to find those "setups" that enable you to implement the tactics -- also determined by your analysis -- which will enable you to enter those trades with the highest probability of success.

I know you've read a lot of books. Books aren't going to do it. Your own research and testing will. More likely than not, the books will send you off into the weeds.

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  #15 (permalink)
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TheTradeSlinger View Post
Perfect illustration of the fear of holding winning trades just now.

First two trades were what I was looking for, the third is the example I want to journal about now.

I put the trade on thinking the market would go down to at least 90 and then some (and it has as of this post), but almost immediately fear crept in and I closed it for a small (ONE TICK!) gain.

I think closing this trade early was fear of not wanting to be proven "wrong" on my assumption that the market would go down.

As soon as the fear creeps in I seem to "freeze up" and forget everything I know about trading.

Any suggestions on how to work on this?

Up $140.60 so far today.

What is fear ? Human beings are programmed to fear the unknown and uncertain, it is part of our survival brain to keep us safe from what is perceived as a threat. Our brain doesnt distinguish between a physical threat and psychological discomfort, all will trigger the same emotional response. Emotions are part of us and it is the ebb and flow of our life, so dont try to kill emotions and trade better, it is not going to happen unless you scoop out part of your brain.. What is the other option to contain fear ? IF you have watched the interview with Captain Sully , who landed the Airplane in Hudson River, mentioned that he felt fear of death and fear of all the lives depending on him BUT his focus was to maneuver that plane with exact precision. Emotions did not overwhelm him because he was trained to handle such situations.

When you know the truth behind something, fear vanishes. It is called knowing.. Having confidence in your trading system is an important part of trading psychology. There is no substitute for this. How do you gain confidence ? Know your system well, the statistics - win loss ratio , expectancy and probability. You can learn to think in probabilities only if you know the statistics for your system. IF you jump around trades, that is because you dont trust your method enough to have full faith in it. When you enter a trade, there are only two possibilities, hit the stop or the target. If you execute your trading plan well, it is a winner either way. If your trading system have a positive expectancy, you are one trade closer to a big runner - law of probability and big numbers .

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  #16 (permalink)
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Quoting 
I don't mean to sound harsh, but you need to put together a trading plan that lends itself to the collection of metrics that you can analyze in order to find those "setups" that enable you to implement the tactics -- also determined by your analysis -- which will enable you to enter those trades with the highest probability of success.

@DbPhoenix


Quoting 
When you know the truth behind something, fear vanishes. It is called knowing.. Having confidence in your trading system is an important part of trading psychology. There is no substitute for this. How do you gain confidence ? Know your system well, the statistics - win loss ratio , expectancy and probability. You can learn to think in probabilities only if you know the statistics for your system. IF you jump around trades, that is because you dont trust your method enough to have full faith in it. When you enter a trade, there are only two possibilities, hit the stop or the target. If you execute your trading plan well, it is a winner either way.

@rahulgopi

Thank you both for your insights.

I am seeing a lot of similarities to The Nature of Risk and the crossing the road analogy to my current situation regarding my trading psychology.


Quoting 
Having confidence in your trading system is an important part of trading psychology. There is no substitute for this.

My trading is discretionary, but discretion honed by years of experience in trading. I have been trading for quite a while at a loss, and lately (past year or two) my trading has seemed to even out at break-even with positive tendencies. My methodology is solid, my trading psychology is not quite there yet.

Everyday I feel more confident about my trading, and over the course of this journal I will put all of the pieces together.

Thank you both again, @DbPhoenix and @rahulgopi, for your time and posts.

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Studying Kewltech more this week waiting for the money from my options experiment to be wired back into my futures account.

Today was a great example of price action trading and kewltech's price action discussions.

To understand today:

1. KEWLTECH: Issue 002 - Accumulation

2. KEWLTECH: Issue 011 - Divergence

Bullish momentum building since 11am EST or so, and the resultant pop. They'll say it's the news or the leak or whatever, but it's all in the charts and price action.

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Late start to the day, bullish momo building all session similar to yesterday.

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First trade since Thursday, staying out while the market is going crazy.

Just a little one tick wonder while watching and waiting.

(Really shouldn't have even put on a trade, still in waiting mode for the market to calm a bit.)

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Little warm up trade for starting out this week:

Took a small long off W pattern support.

This week I am focusing on increasing winning trade duration.

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