No trades today, just decided to watch today after the announcement.
I've been thinking lately about goals and consistency and have decided to treat this trading journal as a real development tool instead of simply posting my pnl each day. I'm going to post charts of my trades and analyze each in an effort to understand my trading and find areas I need to improve in (mainly winning trade duration). Let's find out if the old adage "what doesn't get measured, doesn't get improved" is true or not. Going to do a trial of TraderVue too soon, lots of metrics to measure and improve upon with that tracking software.
Goals
Increase winning trade duration.
Track and analzye my trading thoroughly.
$4,000 net profit monthly. Can be broken down to $1,000 a week, or $200 each session.
$200 each session is roughly 2 times what I'm doing now so that should give some encouragement to holding winning trades longer.
This doesn't mean stop after making my goal each day, just simply guidelines to achieving my monthly goal of $4000.
I'll keep track of progress towards the monthly goal with each session analysis post.
Looking forward to beginning this new direction in the journey tomorrow!
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How to sell support and buy resistance all in one journal entry.. Wow.
Eye-opening to review my trading this way, I had the idea right, execution absolutely poor. Really poor.
Started to place price in the context of a move much lower, possibly gapfill scenario early on in the session.
Instead of using my context bias and executing shorts at resistance on the way down, I kept repeatedly anticipating breakouts lower and they never came (or as in the case of the 4th trade I closed the trade right when it was going to go in my favor, that exit was simply a 'pain avoidance' exit which I will work to avoid at all costs).
The only positive thing I take away from today's trading was that I actually put on the trades in a mindset of letting the winners run, actively thinking of letting each trade run. Today's mindset is nearly polar opposite to my approaches from previous days (essentially every other day except today lol). I will seek to cultivate that mindset of letting my trades run and using market feedback to tell me what to do instead of me simply closing out of fear or worry or any other reason under the sun instead of support/resistance.
Done early for the day, going to devote some time to some automated strategies I'm working on.
Had the context down today, but again, execution leaves a lot to be desired.
Took 2 breakout trades at support, instead of waiting for a test of resistance (sell at resistance!). This shorting at support and buying at resistance and 'anticipating' breakouts is something I am going to keep working on reducing in my trading while working to increase the buying at support and shorting at resistance.
I am proud of the second trade, I actually got fed up with my one or two tick winners and held for a full point. My issues with holding winners will be overcome with time and experience, mark that second trade as step 1 in the journey.
Really going to dig deep this weekend and think about analysis vs execution and be back ready to go next week. Hopefully it will be a good week of trading, who knows though with the holiday period next week.
Hi TradeSlinger! nice to read your thread. I have been trading for 8+ years (going full time next month taking advantage of a relocation) and followed a similar path of yours I discovered Kewltech few weeks ago and find it really refreshing.
Actually I have few questions for you:
- which platform do you use to trade futures?
- have you ever considered the 1st touches to low volume nodes from volume profiles?
- I am still slightly unsure about the subjectivity of the support and resistences drawn on a chart.. what do you think, are you sure about the lines you design?
- finally, my understanding from Kewltech is that we are going to test always the last support of the leg up before the drop or the last resistance of the leg down before the pop - to be traded in combination with the momo and keeping an eye on the acc/distr identified by the MACD divergences... is this a good summary?
All the best!
David
The following 2 users say Thank You to Martingale for this post:
2. I've never looked at volume profile or volume nodes so I have no idea.
3. The S/R lines that I use in my trading every single day are quite meaningful to my trading, there is no magic though, it's simply how the market operates: moving from level to level all day long on all timeframes.
4.
Can you provide a chart example of what you mean here? Here's a crudely drawn example of what I think you may be referring to?
Thanks. That's exactly what I refer to i am now on the mobile but tomorrow I ll post a chart of what I am referring to.
Would love to share my analysis with you on Kewltech as I recently found his blog and yet can't find much reference on his technique online. My main doubt so far is...(in brief).. ok, we have now a bunch of untested levels... which ones will be tested first? I guess if we have the answer to that we would be millioners
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Late start to the day, didn't get to the charts until around 15 minutes before this trade.
Debated last night whether I should trade or not this week due to the holidays and decided to go for it, why waste opportunities to make money?
This trade was essentially an order flow pop, watched as ES approached the resistance level and tested it a few times, decided to go long, targeting the open.
Holding my winning trades is getting easier and easier, held this one for a full point and then as it created that wick I thought maybe this was a failed level breakout so I exited. Not too happy about the exit, but I experienced no worry or anxiety over holding the trade open... I'm making progress.
I'm making an average of $125 a day since starting the detailed log, a little over half of my goal of $200 daily, but much better than what I was doing prior to the detailed log.
Not really trading today (or probably the rest of this week to be honest, getting up late is just so good), just wanted to get something on and see where the markets were at.
Got to the charts a few minutes before this trade, looked for the resistance to be broken and possibly test 31/32 area, took the trade and immediately thought I was being too cute with this trade (and even trading at all today) so I closed it out for a one tick profit.
Ignore the goal stats at the bottom, not really going after the goal today.
Can't wait to get started on TraderVue in the new year!
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No trades today or tomorrow, won't be trading until Monday.
Can't wait for the holiday period to be over with and to get back to a regular trading schedule (that sounds horrible, but I mean it in a strictly trading sense lol).
Maybe you should remove that cumulative goal line? I don't know if that line is motivating or demotivating you, but I can only assume it will add anxiety if it gets too far away.
I found charting this way to be less painful:
Average daily profit of the last 30 days vs your flat daily goal (200).
That way you can chart how well you are doing in the last 30 days in terms of hitting goals and your past performance doesn't kick you every day you look at it.
Alternatively you can set a goal that is more realistic based on the data, for example, a 90 day average of your daily return and your goal is to beat yourself in the past 3 months. Very satisfying when you manage to do it.
Hope that helps!
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I also used an execution spreadsheet, which graded myself on how well i followed my rules in and out.
so if i followed 7/7 i would get 100%, or 80% for 4/5
Then you can filter out your trades based on execution score, for example if you find a higher execution score is correlated with a better expectancy, then you know your rules are working and your goal is to improve your execution score and profits will follow. This should shift your focus to having good execution day after day, rather than trying to hit goals (which just can't be hit sometimes due to markets being the way they are). This is a good way to quantify your execution performance.
The sheet also helps you keep track of how many trades you've done a day so you don't overtrade. You can get it to go red if you've done more then x amount of trades a day and you have a flag telling you to stop.
Hope that helps.
Cheers
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I'm getting more and more consistent with the PnL, and a touch better with the entries and exits.
The context for today was gap fill either 49 or 36 and I was receptive to both.
The first and second trade were both order flow trades looking for the gaps to be potentially filled, but I realized on both that I was selling/buying at support and resistance AGAIN lol so I closed those out.
The third trade is the one I am most proud of, not for holding the trade obviously, but for not taking it short at support again. I was looking for the lows to be taken out and I put on the short a few points above looking for that target. Closed it out way too early, but I am gaining confidence in what I am doing and my reads and will keep on inching up the hold times.
Fourth trade was the "looking for the gap fill" order flow short, but wow did I short at support again! 41ish was the proper short location (previous support turned resistance).
Thinking over the weekend about my trading, it seems that I have been "trained" to cut winners early due to taking the majority of my trades at poor locations (shorting support and buying resistance) as these trades most of the time pop or drop only a few ticks and then reverse on me. I need to start executing at better locations to allow my trades to run.
Going to keep working on better entries and exits this week.
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What a start to 2016! If this is the markets' way of saying "Happy New Year" I'd hate to see her when she's mad!
Pretty major selloff in ES so far today.
First trade (first chart) was shorting at support, literally sold the bottom there. Plus, took a trade outside of the day session where my best trading occurs.
Day session trades were better, managed to dig myself out of the hole from the first trade, but still ended down on the day.
I let the first few trades run better than usual, but got timid with the last two trades.
If we disregard the first trade, I feel pretty good about my entries today, not shorting support and buying resistance all day long like other days.
Looking forward to the rest of this week.
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Just getting started and I already have to leave! Rest of the sessions this week will be full sessions.
Put on a small trade and took it right off realizing I shouldn't be trading with other things going on today.
Trying out OHLC bars, I've always found them much easier to see and read, not sure why I haven't tried trading with them yet.
NQ broke pre-market range, traded higher and formed a new range around the 37/38 midpoint. I shorted the failure at that midpoint (too late of an entry though).
Level to level all day long, that's what the markets do.
Over the weekend and past few sessions I've put a lot of thought into combining kewltech ideas with SLA/AMT ideas and my own ideas of price action and I believe I've really made some progress in how I view and trade the markets.
I feel like I used to "guess" with my trading, though the guesses were based on sound price action principles. With my new mental framework and market framework I feel like I am taking objective trades, really taking the guesswork out of it.
More to come the rest of this week when I'll be able to trade full sessions.
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Hey thetradeslinger, just started reading through your thread which seems pretty interesting so far, good job keeping up with posting all the trades! I know that's usually a pain to always be doing ontop of analysis and trading itself. I keep seeing references to kewltech in the beginning of your thread and while I haven't ever personally read through the blog I'm always up for reading other's views on the markets.
A couple pages back I seen a long post talking about legs up/down and retracing into them while focusing on key S/R levels, is that basically what's described in the kewltech blog? If so then that definitely seems like a sound approach to view trading from
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"A couple pages back I seen a long post talking about legs up/down and retracing into them while focusing on key S/R levels, is that basically what's described in the kewltech blog?"
That's spot on @Six3six. The best way to approach Kewltech is to read it with an eye towards levels, momentum, legs. The MACD stuff is ok, but everything is contained within price itself, once you understand levels/momo/legs everything else becomes secondary.
Check out the kewltech blog if you have some time, it's fantastic. Start with issue #1 and work your way forward, each issue builds on the previous one.
Hey man. took a quick look at your thread. nice trading, you really organized your journal well, very good way to learn yourself. But I dont see any loser in your journal, would like to see how you manage your risk and exit. Keep up the work bro.
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Just realized imgur doesn't save the name of each image.
When I see something interesting and screenshot it, I save it like "TriangleBreakoutLevel" or "60mChartContext" so I can review them later.
I'll try and think of something to add to the charts or fix that naming problem so it doesn't look like a blank chart with no indication of why I screenshot the chart at that moment in time.
Going to be making more Lak style videos soon too!
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Apologies again for the charts being out of order and without names, anyone have an idea on how to save the names and have imgur display them?
If there is a screenshot, there is a reason I took it (without the names on imgur it's hard for a viewer to tell why). Just ask if you have a question about any of them.
Range bound day so far, took a couple entries early on and then worked on analysis the rest of the session up to this point. AMT theory really helped today.
Still working on videos!
One day I hope to have people wonder if I am an "Inspiration or hoax?!"
Making $70 sure wont make that happen though lol!
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Very little sleep last night, shouldn't have even attempted to trade today.
Followed along intently, worked on analysis, and managed to put on two trades which were quickly closed because I just wasn't feeling it.
Green, but a light shade of green. Great day though mainly for my reads of context and price action.
(Just hit me how to possibly get imgur to keep the right order of screenshots, I can order the images in the folder on my computer by date/time, and then upload to imgur, will try that tomorrow)
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Hey TradeSlinger, your thread has been very interesting. I am a beginner and also read through kewltech couple time but still confused in a lot of the topics. When you approach each trading day, do you also look at chart patterns? If so, do you identify chart patterns in all your time frames or only in certain time frames?
Keep up the good work!
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Embarrassing trading today so far, missed the opening long on NQ and then a bias towards testing back down before a move higher kept me from joining the long.
Recorded a video, will try and make it interesting/educational the best I can.
Yes, constantly looking for patterns and price action set ups throughout the session and pre-market.
Pre-market for me mainly consists of finding the overnight range and identifying any key levels before the open.
This gets tricky because price is price, no matter the bar interval you look at it on. Have you ever looked at a 60m and thought long, but then looked at a 5m and thought short? There is only one price, but two different "looks" depending on bar interval.
The best way to describe what I try and do regarding patterns on various timeframes is the following:
1. Longer term pattern/level is the most important.
2. Longer term for the levels, shorter term for the execution against those levels.
3. Change starts on the smaller timeframes, if confused by all the conflicting signals, stay out or lean on the smaller timeframe.
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Bias/opinion got the best of me today as I didn't take into consideration the overall context of the market, what couldashouldawoulda been a few nice chances to short I managed to turn into a few long scalps right at the resistance level. After the long scalps, I stopped trading and examined the context for what I had missed.
Going forward, I am really going to narrow down and focus on executing trades at levels (long at support, short at resistance).
I feel like I can let winners run now (SLA, level to level), next step is to stop taking poor context trades, to enter only at levels.
(First trade 2:50 in)
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Just my opinion, watched your video, your profit Stop is so close to your entry, Pretty hard to scalp for ticks like that. Unless you have 90%+win rate. 1 loss can wipe away all your winning.
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I have been trying to draw chart patterns to see the trend/momentum but the problem I am experiencing is the trend I drew is very subjective and not the direction of the price action. I don't know which two points should be connected nor finding a chart pattern like head and shoulder/cup handle. I know chart pattern we see live is not text book chart patterns so I wondering if you give me some advice on how to draw chart patterns to during your daily sessions to see the trend.
Thank a bunch!
The following user says Thank You to TraderRich for this post:
This is one of the best posts I've read in a long time.
You are starting out in your trading journey ALREADY looking into price action and trying to understand charts and how the markets move. I am jealous of your position, not kidding or flattering you, I wish I had found price action when I first started out trading.
"I have been trying to draw chart patterns to see the trend/momentum but the problem I am experiencing is the trend I drew is very subjective and not the direction of the price action. I don't know which two points should be connected nor finding a chart pattern like head and shoulder/cup handle"
Everyone starts here @TraderRich, everyone starts at "not being able to connect the dots".
Here's the thing, it's there, the answers and the trades and patterns are there, you just simply don't see them yet.
Is there a book or course or website that can help you see what you are looking for?
No.
It all comes from experience and simply grinding it day in and day out until the answers start to reveal themselves to you, until all the squiggles and lines and bars start to form a personal, cohesive narrative to you.
The absolute best advice (if my 2 cents is worth anything!) I can give to you is to just keep at it, each day find your levels, mark them down, and see how price reacts at your levels/patterns. Disregard processes and thoughts that lead you to marking 'bad' levels and keep doing more of what leads you to drawing 'good' levels. It will come with time and experience.
Start a journal (personal or on futures.io) and keep logs of what you are doing each day, review review review and learn from what does and doesn't work.
Tomorrow (Tuesday) I want you to post your levels/patterns here or in your own journal and lets look at them together.
Thank you very much for the advice and the help! For tomorrow, I will post a chart with levels/pattern after market ends with forecast of its near term price targets.
Thank you!!!
Thanks for sharing the video. I think it would be if you can make note in the video on why you take that entry, and slow down the video a bit, maybe just record the part where you about to make a entry and after you exit. the video was little too fast, other than that good work. keep it up.
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I have been playing gold for while so my watch has been DUST and NUGT.
I uploaded my analysis on DUST.
In 1-day, 4hr and 2 hr charts start to show some fade in bearish momentum for a trend turnaround. In 15min and 5min, it shows bullish volume starting to set in. With the fading bearish momentum from long term, it may create a side way action which can cause a first touch of support level at $6.97 which was a prior resistance and rebound away towards $7.50.
Please take a look and point out anythings I should know or did wrong.
Thanks!
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Looks good to me in terms of Kewltech based analysis.
One thing I would want to see is a longer term chart though, always be able to look left and see if the current prices have ever been visited before, there could be a level here and we can't see it if we can't look far enough left.
I can't seem to spot the inverse HnS you pointed out in two of your charts (the red and blue arrows pointing at it? or do you mean the overall picture?)
It recently broke $11.28, so it is at its all time low right now. The 5 min chart basically showed all its recent levels. I am trying to see if I read the momentum change.
For the inverse head and shoulder, I am not sure if I am reading the chart correctly. The top dotted line and the left most solid line seem to form a shoulder. The left solid line and the bottom solid line form the head.And the right solid red line is starting to form the other shoulder.
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Can you give me some advice? If you look at a chart like that, how would you approach it to see its trend/trend change, momentum change or what are some key things you would look at to assist your judgement?
I did my one/two tick dumb trading for my first sequence, made the decision to not accept that for the second.
Still a horrible exit on that last trade, when the bar you close a trade on (especially such a short timeframe as the 1m) closes higher than your exit you know something is wrong with the exits! Still working on exits, but getting more and more comfortable with trusting myself and taking trades without worry or nerves.
Now to just get comfortable with exits.
Seems like NQ/ES are coiling up, interested to see what happens.
I discovered Kewltech few weeks ago and find it really refreshing.
