Basically both. You are correct that Cl respects s/r and I try to always map out smaller areas of support and resistance that most traders can't even see on larger timeframes. Also, you will see moments when Cl can spike up 60 to 80 ticks within a few minutes. Then sometimes, when it retraces...it will trigger an order flow event from all the various stops being triggered and the move can violently reverse 100 ticks or more very quickly. This confounds many traders..but I have learned to exploit these moves and they are very profitable.
But yes, nothing beats real time observation..but reviewing charts and actually scrolling through the trading sessions is better than just looking at static charts.
Failure is not an option
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I've actually noticed this as well. It's one of those reasons which sort of proves you can ignore fundamentals for intraday trading. People always say something in the news must have made it go up, but then why did it get sold off and go down further than where it started!
I'm not going to think to much about order flow and stops but instead just try and learn patterns such as the one in your quote.
In an ideal world crude is probably the better choice to trade (higher volatility / transaction cost). However due to the data issues with the free intraday crude data (link below) I have completely switched over to trading EUR/USD, USD/JPY and EUR/JPY forex pairs.
Missed a good trade first on EUR/USD and then on USD/JPY. Was watching the price but just couldn't pull the trigger. The best trades are usually the hardest to enter, where as the worst seem like a sure thing.
Took two trades after on EUR/JPY but exited too quickly, otherwise would have had a successful day.
Need to be able to accept that a loss may occur and hold the profitable position open longer.
Quitting day trading for now. Starting research on an EOD forex strategy, trading multiple currencies.
Might add futures as well.
The advantage of this type of strategy is free access to required data and it's also easier to actually carry out the strategy since you don't need to be at the screen all day just to take that 1 trade that sets up an entry within a 15min window. Also cost of commissions can be reduced by 90% (assuming the average win/loss will be 10 times as big)
The disadvantages are probably that it's hard to predict market direction over a longer period of time as it may be random. Also the rate of return will be much much less as there are fewer high probability trades and wide stops need to be used.
Although different trading approaches will have different results, in general the little twitches of price on a shorter period of time will tend to be more random than the moves over a longer period, and there will usually be fewer higher probability trades on a shorter time-span than on a longer one, because probabilities tend to be more against you in the very short term.
In other words, you sort of got everything backwards....
Very short-term trading is certainly possible to do profitably, but it is much harder. Some of the reasons have to do with the market (you're more down in the noise of random events), and some have to do with human nature and your personal psychology (decisions have to be made more quickly, and as the pressure builds so does the likelihood of mistakes.)
Everyone has to learn their own way, and I am not going to try to say what is the "right way," but if you haven't done so, you might benefit from spending a little time with the S&P spoo-nalysis thread (today's posts beginning here: https://futures.io/index-futures-trading/13452-es-s-p-500-futures-contract-sp500-spoo-nalysis-1923.html#post510122 ) Some very seasoned traders are posting and discussing their trades in the S&P futures ("spoos") all during the day, in real time, as they make them. The point would not be to try to copy or even make use their methods (which differ from each other anyway), but just to get a feel for how the job is done. They are day trading in part, but with a longish time perspective. You can make adaptations to whatever time-frame, method or instrument appeals to you. It's a resource that's worth digging into.
In any event, be cautious of the allure of very short-term trading. It can work for some people, but can also be a good way to lose more quickly. I would also say, don't jump around too much, trying many different things. Learn something well first....
(Note: CL is notorious for its quick reversals, and for chopping up traders' profit and loss. It is an especially good way to lose money, and always has been.)
Good luck with your explorations.
Last edited by bobwest; August 7th, 2015 at 11:29 PM.
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FYI, I've heard from reputable, confidential sources that CL is the second most actively traded Futures instrument by the HFT consortium. That may shed some light on why those who trade SR, and have had some modicum of previous success doing so, are now getting their heads , arms and legs handed to them.
Unless you are a professional, my advice is to stay away from CL until the HFT herd finds another place to reap havoc.