Today was one of those days - slow grinding balance day with upward skew. I was luck to escape with only 3 tick loss :-)
ES gapped open and Gap rules were in play. After opening ES chopped around back and forth and it was clear there there was no strong buying nor was there strong selling. AB periods made poor low and it indicated that market was getting too short (this was a poor low but this low was formed by day timeframe traders trying too hard) B was inside bar, and so was C = more balance. When C failed to sell off it put some pressure on sellers and they were forced to cover. Profile was getting wider and value was higher. Higher value indicated that it was not a good idea to short the market. Gap rules with higher value indicated that a late rally was possible. There was a late rally that took out Overnight Hi and 6/25 Hi, but it was very slow and grinding.
Trades I took today:
ABCD were balanced tight bars. I took break out in E period but there was no follow through to the upside. F period opened back inside balance and I closed the trade with 1t gain. I missed the fact that we were one timeframing higher however it wouldn't have made any difference.
HIJ periods formed another tight balance. The trade was to go in direction of break. Long was preferred sicne I expected a late rally. I took long at when there was a upside break in K period at 2115.50. Again there was no follow through and I raised my stop to 14.50 - slightly inside the balance area. I was stopped and ES rotated up from 14.50.
Outlook for tomorrow:
The negatives are piling on.
- 3 back to back wide POC's that are untested
- Poor low with Gap
- 7/15 bounced exactly from 7/13 high
One weekly and Daily charts we are approaching Key area of uncertainity. ES is tantalizingly close to the all time high. All time high was made in globex session and it is very likely that it will be taken out. However given the negatives and their exponential effect it is also possible that we get a selloff from here. We have a good high today.
2113.00 is the afternoon pullback low. Change occurs below this level. Acceptance below PB Low targets the gap below.
Acceptance above today's high's can potentially trigger the fire cracker effect since there are 3 high's that are close together
How will I monitor for continuation:
- I want to see heavier volume
- I don't want to see selling coming in from mechanical references
- Lower value
- Downside references should be taken out easily, don't want to see struggle
The following user says Thank You to futurestrader for this post:
Thanks. I would have held on to the trade despite new IF there was acceptance below 13.00. No change in sentiment made the decision to close the trade easy. Also, I trade 1 lot so I don't have the ability to scale.