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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile
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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile

  #41 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

can this be any slower?

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  #42 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

F period opened inside balance and did not leave Double Distribution. I closed the trade.

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  #43 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received


I made a major error reading the structure. I didn't realize till later that were are one timeframing higher and structural stop was 13.50

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  #44 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

Recap and Preparation 07-17-2015

Today was one of those days - slow grinding balance day with upward skew. I was luck to escape with only 3 tick loss :-)

ES gapped open and Gap rules were in play. After opening ES chopped around back and forth and it was clear there there was no strong buying nor was there strong selling. AB periods made poor low and it indicated that market was getting too short (this was a poor low but this low was formed by day timeframe traders trying too hard) B was inside bar, and so was C = more balance. When C failed to sell off it put some pressure on sellers and they were forced to cover. Profile was getting wider and value was higher. Higher value indicated that it was not a good idea to short the market. Gap rules with higher value indicated that a late rally was possible. There was a late rally that took out Overnight Hi and 6/25 Hi, but it was very slow and grinding.

Trades I took today:
Trade 1:
ABCD were balanced tight bars. I took break out in E period but there was no follow through to the upside. F period opened back inside balance and I closed the trade with 1t gain. I missed the fact that we were one timeframing higher however it wouldn't have made any difference.

Trade 2:
HIJ periods formed another tight balance. The trade was to go in direction of break. Long was preferred sicne I expected a late rally. I took long at when there was a upside break in K period at 2115.50. Again there was no follow through and I raised my stop to 14.50 - slightly inside the balance area. I was stopped and ES rotated up from 14.50.

Outlook for tomorrow:
The negatives are piling on.
- 3 back to back wide POC's that are untested
- Poor low with Gap
- 7/15 bounced exactly from 7/13 high

One weekly and Daily charts we are approaching Key area of uncertainity. ES is tantalizingly close to the all time high. All time high was made in globex session and it is very likely that it will be taken out. However given the negatives and their exponential effect it is also possible that we get a selloff from here. We have a good high today.
2113.00 is the afternoon pullback low. Change occurs below this level. Acceptance below PB Low targets the gap below.

Acceptance above today's high's can potentially trigger the fire cracker effect since there are 3 high's that are close together

Additional screenshots at http://www.evernote.com/l/AgcDZ9wn4H9IRZ3CIJIoSJTwCzEp2QDh71I/

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  #45 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

07-17-2015

A trade just popped up at open. We opened below yday high and there was 2t excess. I shorted 17.50. My stop is 18.25

If the excess holds there is a good change for larger move down. I am monitoring for continuation.
So far it bounced exactly from ONL = weak buyer.

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  #46 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

How will I monitor for continuation:
- I want to see heavier volume
- I don't want to see selling coming in from mechanical references
- Lower value
- Downside references should be taken out easily, don't want to see struggle

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  #47 (permalink)
Elite Member
Boulder, CO
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 29 since Oct 2014
Thanks: 35 given, 32 received

good entry and sound logic. next downside reference would be yesterday's low and then the gap fill to 2107.75


futurestrader View Post
A trade just popped up at open. We opened below yday high and there was 2t excess. I shorted 17.50. My stop is 18.25

If the excess holds there is a good change for larger move down. I am monitoring for continuation.
So far it bounced exactly from ONL = weak buyer.

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  #48 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

Change in sentiment occurs below yesterday afternoon pullback low at 2113.00. So far there is NO change

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  #49 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received

Closed trade right before news - +9t

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  #50 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: MarketDelta
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Posts: 208 since Oct 2010
Thanks: 73 given, 175 received



NewKid View Post
good entry and sound logic. next downside reference would be yesterday's low and then the gap fill to 2107.75

Thanks. I would have held on to the trade despite new IF there was acceptance below 13.00. No change in sentiment made the decision to close the trade easy. Also, I trade 1 lot so I don't have the ability to scale.

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