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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile
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FuturesTrader's Journal - Trading ES with Market Profile

  #21 (permalink)
Elite Member
Houston, TX
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Premarket 07-13-2015

Greece deal was reached overnight and as of 8:17 am CST Es will Gap open into the upside gap.
9 day balance high is 2083.50 and a possible support. Opening above the gap will target Gap start at 2086.25. Filling the gap closes the Excess and all time high comes into play again.

Gap rules are in play:
Go with any gap that is not filled quickly.
If gap is filled and value doesn't become unchanged then a late rally is possible
The strongest negative response to the gap would be lower value along with
an outside day to the downside.


Watch for confidence at open today - high confidence open suggests getting into the trade quickly. Low confidence open suggests letting the market shake out.


Overnight Hi = 2087.25 2t above top of gap = weak seller
Overnight Low = 2052.00

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  #22 (permalink)
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matthew28's Avatar
 
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Hi,
I looked at your journal and thought 'that sounds familiar'. Then read your first post. I have just done the recent Summer Intensive. I am looking at crude though as the ES drives me spare. Good luck with your journal and trading.

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  #23 (permalink)
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Recap and preparation for 07-14-2015


ES gapped up today after Greece deal. It was exactly a 10 point gap. Large gaps are difficult to fill. After open it failed to find any sellers and I took long at 85.75, however the tempo was just there. I closed the trade with a loss of 1t. The structural stop was open at 84.75 and this would have been a 5pt+ trade had I help it however given the tempo for the day I doubt I could have held on to the trade.

NYSE volume at 9:00 am was very low. The range, tempo and low volume pointed towards a balance day with upwards skew since value was higher and that was the end result.
ES balanced from B-J period before fianlly breaking out in K period and it closed at the high's 2094.00

Outlook for tomorrow:
Once again 2100 is in focus. Further acceptance above 2083 gap zone targets the all time high that was made in globex session.
Failure above and acceptange back inside the 9 day balance targets teh other end of balance.

POC at 2088.75 is 11 wide, it needs heavy volume to move away from this level.

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  #24 (permalink)
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Premarket 07-14-2015

Tight overnight range
ONH = 2095.25
ONL = 2090.50
Theoritically ON Inv is short but the range is so tight I am considering it as balance. As of 8:28 am we will open in middle of range. Let market shake out. POC is in play.


Last edited by futurestrader; July 14th, 2015 at 10:30 AM. Reason: typo
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  #25 (permalink)
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Trade 1

After open ES attempted selling but didnot find anythign. The rally was sold exactly at yesterday high ONH was a few ticks above. . After observing this mechanical nature I took long at half-back 93.25 with structural stop at open.

I closed the trade after they ran the stops above overnight high. I could have held on with stop below yday high but the prominent POC at 88.75 is untested and likey to be a magnet. Also NYSE volume is very low so there is no conviction in the upside move.

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  #26 (permalink)
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Nice journal. I use some similar concepts to you.

Can I ask, do you have a preferred time to trade or will you trade at any time during the session?

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  #27 (permalink)
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CobblersAwls View Post
Nice journal. I use some similar concepts to you.

Can I ask, do you have a preferred time to trade or will you trade at any time during the session?

Thanks CobblersAwls. I avoid trading near news announcements and late in the day. If market is opening in middle of the range I will let the market shake out and wait patiently for the trade to setup.

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  #28 (permalink)
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Yesterday 07-14-2015 Recap

Yesterday - I took one trade yesterday which was posted earlier. Rest of the day was a slow grind up, one timeframing higher with inventory adjustment in G period.
There was mechanical buying at lows of D period which left behind an anomaly. Price snapped back to POC in the last period.

2098.50 was the pullback low

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Last edited by futurestrader; July 15th, 2015 at 10:52 PM. Reason: incorrect screenshot
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  #29 (permalink)
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Recap for 07-15-2015

Overnight inventory was balanced to slightly long. ONH = 2107.50, ONL = 2099.25

Market opened at 2102.25 a tick below settle. Opening inside the range indicated that I had to be patient for the entries and let the market shake out.
Mechanical buyers came it at 2100 level (2099.75) and market continued higher.
B period high was exactly at yesterday high, this showed that market was dominated by day timeframe traders
C failed to take out ONH and came back 2nd time inside yday range. This triggered look above the range and fail trade. However there was no follow through and I closed the trade with 2t loss.

D took out ONH by 1 tick and failed. This was a classic short that I missed. It was difficult to take at the time since we were one timeframing higher
D period then came back inside yesterdays range for the 3rd time. This triggered look above the range and fail trade again. I shorted 2105.75 and closed the trade when E period failed to take out open.

E,F,G,H,I balanced. There were several mechanical buys at the open but the buyers were not getting follow through. When I looked above yesterday high and failed a short was triggered but I missed it. This was a very high risk reward trade with a few tick stop.

K broke the balance and I shorted the break. I closed the trade once the BCDG anomaly from yesterday was repaired. I didn't monitor for continuation, my stop should have been adjusted to A period low, instead I just closed the trade.

K stopped 1t above 7/13 high - another indication of weak buyer, however the POC was 9 wide and the price snapped back to POC again.

I also shorted retest of ONL low in L period but closed the trade with small gain when there was no follow through.

Outlook for tomorrow:
I am seeing daytimeframe traders only and they keep buying every dip. today's liquidation relieved some pressure however we now have 3 back to back wide POC's
Traders will keep doing what works till it doesn't. For now the game is all time high's, if there is no follow through on upside then 2083.25 comes back into play.
ES is one timeframing higherfor last 6 days, this has to stop before there is chance of any meaningful liquidation.

NYSE volume was higher than yesterday but nothing significant.

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  #30 (permalink)
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Premarket 07-16-2015


ON Inventory is very long. As of 08:28 we will gap up with a 6 pt gap. Gap rules are in play.
Go with any gap that is not filled quickly. I see 3 high's close together on the upside - possible firecracker effect.

http://www.evernote.com/l/Agc6M_qQoiJJZ6t40VxEdSllO4G_BCTY1Cg/

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