Another day when market is dominated by wide strings and emotional reactions. I decided not to trade today.
Looking at the weekly we are still one timeframing lower.
On daily, yesterday we looked below the five day balance and left an excess, and that access was taken out today.
2023 remains the downside target.
Market opened below the Spike base and found acceptance, Spike rules suggest acceptance below the Spike indicates weakness. Even though the market was generally lower today the value is overlapping and several anomalies are left behind.
The selling came many times from mechanical references
1 - C sold off exactly from open
2 - H sold exactly from half back
3 - L sold one tick above K
4 - K could not take out yesterday's low
5 - Prominent POC at 2049, there was late selling below the POC, the late shorts can be caught tomorrow
6 - Is still a minor excess from yesterday
Outlook for tomorrow
today was the inside day which is a form of balance. Balance rules apply tomorrow
–Remain in balance
– attempt to breakout of balance and fail
– breakout of balance and accelerate
evidence from today suggests that higher prices are possibly in play tomorrow
I will update before market opens tomorrow
As discussed in the recap report lot of evidence suggested an upside move. As of 8:11 AM the will open on the upper end of yesterday's range. Balance rules are in play.
Finding acceptance above yesterday's high targets the base of the gap at 83.
Since we are opening above the anomalies they are considered repaired. Overnight low = 2038.50 overnight high = 2063.25 overnight inventory is hundred percent long. Expectation is that overnight inventory will be corrected, if this does not happen it will point towards strong short covering.
Keep in mind that prominent POC at 2049 is a magnet and we need much higher volume today in order to move away from it.
My trading relies on identifying the following items:
-is it in balance or out of balance
-what is attempted direction
-is the market trending or balancing
-most important who is in control is it day traders, short-term or long-term
-what is the ruling reason
I use 30 minute profile charts for my trading but I will explain a few things on 2500 volume chart an attempt to show how I read the market and also show where I struggle.
Market gapped up today, overnight inventory was hundred percent long. The first expectation is that the overnight inventory
will adjust. if that does not happen it's a very strong clue.
Today ES opened at 2064.75 attempted to sell off and failed. I saw that the overnight inventory was not getting adjusted and I took a long at 2065 right above open. Once I'm in the trade I try to monitor for continuation.it broke above overnight high but failed to continue and came back down to open. Bounced exactly from open - this was my first clue that buyer was weak. When this bounce failed again I exited the trade.
8:46 and 8:51 am CST - Market sold off twice 1t below open- this was sign on mechanical selling. I made the observation that Sellers were getting away with selling at references and there was no sign of buyers.
The net effect of the two observations above (weak buyer and mechanical sellers getting what they want) SHOULD have alerted me to start taking mechanical reference based trades on the short side till proven long, instead I stayed out of short trades and looked for longs. I skipped the mechanical sell at yesterday high and opted to wait patiently for a long to setup! This is an area I have to improve in order to get better at trading.
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Today was a trend down day with inventory adjustment in D and L periods. There are several anomalies left behind and late afternoon selling occurred below POC. These anomalies are likely to be repaired tomorrow (Overnight session has already traded back towards highs after more Greece news)
Daily chart shows the lows for last 3 days are close together and there is a potential firecracker next time price goes thru the low. However it also shows that sellers are trying desperately and not succeeding in pushing the prices lower. A massive short covering rally is something I will watch out for.
Once again Overnight inventory is 100% long and we are opening at the upper end of yesterday's range. Last two days traded within Tuesday's range so despite wide ranges we are still in a form of balance.
2052.75 is yesterday's rally high (inventory adjusted in L period). Opening above the rally high suggests that change has occurred. I will once again look for a break higher if the inventory doesn't adjust quickly.
Yday high at 2068.00 and ONH at 2069.25 are references nearby. Above this 2083 comes into play. ONL = 2038.25